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Tropical Storm Carlos Forecast Discussion Number 2
2021-06-13 05:14:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Jun 12 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 130313 CCA TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Carlos Discussion Number 2...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021 800 PM PDT Sat Jun 12 2021 Corrected humidity value in third paragraph. Satellite imagery indicates improved organization this evening as a cold convective burst has expanded over the estimated low-level circulation center. A 2032 UTC AMSR2 microwave pass indicated that underneath this convective burst was also improved convective banding, especially over the southern semicircle. The latest round of Dvorak satellite estimates were T2.0/30 kt from TAFB and T2.5/35 kt from SAB. The most recent UW-CIMSS Advanced Dvorak Technique value was also T2.5/35 kt. Favoring the higher intensity estimates, and assuming some intensification has occurred from the earlier scatterometer passes, Tropical Depression Three-E has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Carlos with an advisory intensity of 35 kt. Carlos appears to be gradually turning leftward and slowing down this evening, with the most recent estimated motion at 270/06 kt. The mid-level ridge north of Carlos is forecast to gradually weaken, shift northward, and then be replaced by a deep-layer trough that will essentially shut down the steering currents near the cyclone after 24 h. Between 36 to 48 h the motion of Carlos is likely to slow to a crawl, generally to the west-southwest. By 72 h, another mid-to-upper level trough digging in from the northwest will finally induce some northerly steering, helping Carlos to gradually accelerate to the north. The latest track forecast is a bit west of the previous NHC forecast owing to the current motion, but remains very close to the HFIP corrected consensus and TCVE track consensus. It should be noted that there remains large spread in the guidance on how quickly Carlos slows down, with the latest GFS forecast slowing down the cyclone almost immediately, while the CMC and ECMWF runs show a much faster track to the west-southwest. The intensity forecast is tricky due to both the small size of the tropical cyclone and also the less than optimal environment surrounding the system. While deep-layer vertical wind shear is only expected to be low to moderate over the next 72 h, mid-level shear out of the north to northwest is a bit higher (15-25 kt) and could occasionally import very dry mid-level air from that direction. In fact, ECMWF-SHIPS mid-level humidity values gradually decrease to under 50 percent in the next 36 h. In addition, the very slow motion of Carlos expected between 24-72 h could potentially upwell cooler sea-surface temperatures than the current 27-28 C values along the forecast track. For this reason, the latest NHC intensity forecast is fairly conservative, forecasting a peak intensity of 45 kt between 24-60 h, which is close to the HFIP corrected consensus and peak intensity of the most recent HWRF run. Thereafter, as the storm begins to gain latitude, increasingly dry, stable air in addition to decreasing sea surface temperatures should lead to gradual weakening beyond 60 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 11.9N 124.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 11.8N 125.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 11.4N 126.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 14/1200Z 10.8N 127.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 15/0000Z 10.6N 127.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 15/1200Z 10.3N 127.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 16/0000Z 10.3N 128.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 17/0000Z 11.5N 128.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 18/0000Z 13.5N 127.9W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin/Pasch
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Tropical Storm Carlos Graphics
2021-06-13 04:57:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 13 Jun 2021 02:57:14 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 13 Jun 2021 02:57:14 GMT
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Tropical Storm Carlos Forecast Discussion Number 2
2021-06-13 04:56:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Jun 12 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 130256 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Carlos Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021 800 PM PDT Sat Jun 12 2021 Satellite imagery indicates improved organization this evening as a cold convective burst has expanded over the estimated low-level circulation center. A 2032 UTC AMSR2 microwave pass indicated that underneath this convective burst was also improved convective banding, especially over the southern semicircle. The latest round of Dvorak satellite estimates were T2.0/30 kt from TAFB and T2.5/35 kt from SAB. The most recent UW-CIMSS Advanced Dvorak Technique value was also T2.5/35 kt. Favoring the higher intensity estimates, and assuming some intensification has occurred from the earlier scatterometer passes, Tropical Depression Three-E has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Carlos with an advisory intensity of 35 kt. Carlos appears to be gradually turning leftward and slowing down this evening, with the most recent estimated motion at 270/06 kt. The mid-level ridge north of Carlos is forecast to gradually weaken, shift northward, and then be replaced by a deep-layer trough that will essentially shut down the steering currents near the cyclone after 24 h. Between 36 to 48 h the motion of Carlos is likely to slow to a crawl, generally to the west-southwest. By 72 h, another mid-to-upper level trough digging in from the northwest will finally induce some northerly steering, helping Carlos to gradually accelerate to the north. The latest track forecast is a bit west of the previous NHC forecast owing to the current motion, but remains very close to the HFIP corrected consensus and TCVE track consensus. It should be noted that there remains large spread in the guidance on how quickly Carlos slows down, with the latest GFS forecast slowing down the cyclone almost immediately, while the CMC and ECMWF runs show a much faster track to the west-southwest. The intensity forecast is tricky due to both the small size of the tropical cyclone and also the less than optimal environment surrounding the system. While deep-layer vertical wind shear is only expected to be low to moderate over the next 72 h, mid-level shear out of the north to northwest is a bit higher (15-25 kt) and could occasionally import very dry mid-level air from that direction. In fact, ECMWF-SHIPS mid-level humidity values gradually decrease to under 500ver the next 36 h. In addition, the very slow motion of Carlos expected between 24-72 h could potentially upwell cooler sea-surface temperatures than the current 27-28 C values along the forecast track. For this reason, the latest NHC intensity forecast is fairly conservative, forecasting a peak intensity of 45 kt between 24-60 h, which is close to the HFIP corrected consensus and peak intensity of the most recent HWRF run. Thereafter, as the storm begins to gain latitude, increasingly dry, stable air in addition to decreasing sea surface temperatures should lead to gradual weakening beyond 60 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 11.9N 124.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 11.8N 125.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 11.4N 126.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 14/1200Z 10.8N 127.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 15/0000Z 10.6N 127.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 15/1200Z 10.3N 127.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 16/0000Z 10.3N 128.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 17/0000Z 11.5N 128.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 18/0000Z 13.5N 127.9W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin/Pasch
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Tropical Storm Carlos Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2021-06-13 04:54:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUN 13 2021 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 130254 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032021 0300 UTC SUN JUN 13 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CARLOS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) 2(11) X(11) 10N 130W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 7(11) 5(16) 1(17) 10N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/PASCH
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Summary for Tropical Storm Carlos (EP3/EP032021)
2021-06-13 04:53:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION INTENSIFIES INTO TROPICAL STORM CARLOS... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sat Jun 12 the center of Carlos was located near 11.9, -124.5 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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