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Tropical Storm Carlos Graphics
2021-06-13 22:38:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 13 Jun 2021 20:38:54 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 13 Jun 2021 20:38:54 GMT
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Tropical Storm Carlos Forecast Discussion Number 5
2021-06-13 22:38:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Jun 13 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 132038 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Carlos Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021 200 PM PDT Sun Jun 13 2021 Deep convection has managed to persist over the center of Carlos throughout the day today, although the appearance of this convection has become more ragged as the day has progressed. The blended CI values from TAFB and SAB suggest the system still has an intensity of 45 kt. A recent ASCAT overpass only partially captured the circulation with peak wind vectors of 39 kt. Compensating for possible undersampling by the instrument over only a portion of such a compact cyclone, maintaining 45 kt seems reasonable for the initial advisory intensity. Dry and stable air lies just to the north and west of Carlos, and occasional intrusions of this air into the cyclone's circulation could disrupt convection. However, the overnight diurnal convective maximum could overcome these intrusions over the next couple of nights. Therefore, only slight weakening is indicated through that time period. By 48 h, Carlos is expected to move into the stable airmass which should further disrupt its convection, causing additional weakening. By late in the forecast period the cyclone is forecast to be near or have crossed the 26 degree C SST isotherm. This should cause any remaining convection to gradually dissipate. Although not shown in the official forecast, it is possible Carlos will degenerate into a remnant low by the end of the forecast period, as suggested by the GFS. The latest NHC intensity forecast is very near the various multi-model consensus solutions. Carlos is beginning to show signs of slowing and turning to the left, with the initial motion now 260/6 kt. Model guidance remains in good agreement through 48 h, with the storm slowing and turning west-southwest as a mid-level ridge becomes oriented SW-NE to the north of the cyclone. There is still a vast amount of track guidance spread beyond 72 h, but not as much as earlier today. The GFS, which continues to be the easternmost solution has shifted well west of its previous track, showing Carlos turning northwest in a few days in response to a building ridge to its east, and weakening ridge to the north. The remaining guidance maintains the ridge to the north and shows Carlos turning west by midweek, then west-northwest by late this week. The official NHC forecast is near the previous one through 48 h. Beyond 48 h, large adjustments were required to accommodate the continuing westward trends in the guidance. Despite the abrupt shift in the official forecast for the latter half of the period, it remains well east of the consensus and the majority of available track guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 11.7N 126.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 11.4N 127.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 11.0N 128.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 10.6N 129.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 10.4N 130.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 16/0600Z 10.3N 130.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 16/1800Z 10.3N 131.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 17/1800Z 10.7N 132.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 120H 18/1800Z 11.4N 132.7W 25 KT 30 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto
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Summary for Tropical Storm Carlos (EP3/EP032021)
2021-06-13 22:35:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CARLOS SLOWLY MARCHING WESTWARD OVER OPEN WATERS... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sun Jun 13 the center of Carlos was located near 11.7, -126.6 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Carlos Public Advisory Number 5
2021-06-13 22:35:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Jun 13 2021 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 132035 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Carlos Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021 200 PM PDT Sun Jun 13 2021 ...CARLOS SLOWLY MARCHING WESTWARD OVER OPEN WATERS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.7N 126.6W ABOUT 1345 MI...2160 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlos was located near latitude 11.7 North, longitude 126.6 West. Carlos is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the west-southwest at a slower forward speed is forecast to occur this evening and continue through Tuesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in strength are possible over the next couple of days. A weakening trend is expected to begin by midweek. Carlos remains a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Carlos Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2021-06-13 22:35:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUN 13 2021 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 132035 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032021 2100 UTC SUN JUN 13 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CARLOS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 13(14) 12(26) 4(30) 1(31) X(31) 10N 130W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 10N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 10N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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