je.st
news
Tag: storm
Tropical Storm Carlos Public Advisory Number 4
2021-06-13 16:47:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Jun 13 2021 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 131447 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Carlos Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021 800 AM PDT Sun Jun 13 2021 ...CARLOS STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.8N 126.0W ABOUT 1305 MI...2105 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlos was located near latitude 11.8 North, longitude 126.0 West. Carlos is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the west-southwest at a slower forward speed is forecast to occur this afternoon and continue through Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days. Some slow weakening is expected by midweek. Carlos remains a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
Tags: number
public
carlos
storm
Tropical Storm Carlos Forecast Advisory Number 4
2021-06-13 16:47:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUN 13 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 131447 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032021 1500 UTC SUN JUN 13 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 126.0W AT 13/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 126.0W AT 13/1500Z AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 125.7W FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 11.6N 126.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 11.1N 127.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 10.7N 128.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 10.4N 128.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 10.4N 129.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 11.0N 129.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 12.8N 129.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 15.2N 129.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.8N 126.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Tags: number
carlos
storm
advisory
Tropical Storm Carlos Graphics
2021-06-13 10:37:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 13 Jun 2021 08:37:40 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 13 Jun 2021 09:22:27 GMT
Tags: graphics
carlos
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm Carlos Forecast Discussion Number 3
2021-06-13 10:36:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Jun 13 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 130836 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Carlos Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021 200 AM PDT Sun Jun 13 2021 Infrared and scatterometer satellite data indicate that Carlos remains a compact tropical cyclone. Two ASCAT passes between 0400-0500 UTC revealed a radius of maximum wind of 10-12 nmi and tropical-storm-force winds that only extended outward about 20 nmi. Cloud tops colder than -50C only extend outward about 60 nmi from the center. The earlier ASCAT-A/-B passes contained peak surface wind vectors of 37 kt/40 kt, respectively, so the estimated intensity has been increased to 40 kt for this advisory, which could be a little conservative owing to the small size of the cyclone and possible undersampling of the scatterometer instrument. The initial motion estimate is due west or 270/07 kt. There is little change to the previous NHC track forecast or reasoning. The latest model runs are in good agreement on Carlos turning toward the west-southwest later today, followed by a southwestward motion on Monday and Tuesday as a low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone builds southward. By day 3, the models diverge significantly when the deep-layer steering currents collapse, followed by possible rapid weakening. The ECMWF weakens Carlos into a shallow remnant low by 72 h, with the shallow vortex then being driven southwestward by a strong low-level ridge to the north and northeast. In contrast, the GFS and some of the other global and regional models keep Carlos stronger and vertically deeper, which results in a ridge to the east lifting the cyclone out toward the north. Given the large spread in the track guidance on days 4 and 5, the new NHC track forecast is similar to but slightly slower than the previous advisory track, and close to a blend of the TVCE and GFEX simple consensus track models. Carlos' small size in combination with the relatively low deep-layer vertical shear of 5-10 kt for the next 36 h or so would normally argue for significant strengthening. However, the cyclone's proximity to very dry mid-level and cooler sea-surface just to its north and northwest is expected to result in the periodic entrainment of stable air for the 72 h or so, resulting in intermittent disruptions of the central deep convection. Thus, little change in strength is forecast during that time. Thereafter, the combination of increasing southwesterly wind shear and sub-27C sea-surface temperatures along the track is expected to induce gradual weakening. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows the IVCN and HCCA intensity consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 11.9N 125.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 11.6N 126.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 14/0600Z 11.2N 126.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 14/1800Z 10.7N 127.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 15/0600Z 10.3N 127.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 15/1800Z 10.2N 128.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 16/0600Z 10.6N 128.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 17/0600Z 12.0N 128.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 18/0600Z 14.0N 127.9W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: number
discussion
carlos
storm
Summary for Tropical Storm Carlos (EP3/EP032021)
2021-06-13 10:33:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CARLOS STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY OVER THE OPEN EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sun Jun 13 the center of Carlos was located near 11.9, -125.3 with movement W at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Tags: summary
carlos
storm
tropical
Sites : [432] [433] [434] [435] [436] [437] [438] [439] [440] [441] [442] [443] [444] [445] [446] [447] [448] [449] [450] [451] next »