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Tropical Storm Peter Public Advisory Number 8
2021-09-20 16:44:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 20 2021 236 WTNT31 KNHC 201444 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Peter Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 20 2021 ...PETER BATTLING INCREASINGLY HOSTILE WIND SHEAR... ...TROPICAL STORM EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS EARLY THIS WEEK... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.5N 60.9W ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Peter was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 60.9 West. Peter is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days, followed by a turn to the northwest with a decrease in forward speed on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Peter will pass north of the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico through Tuesday. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is forecast during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Rainfall around the southern periphery of Tropical Storm Peter could produce rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches, with locally higher amounts possible, across portions of the Northern Leeward Islands, including the Virgin Islands, as well as Puerto Rico and the northern portions of Hispaniola through Tuesday. This rainfall may lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Peter are expected to affect the northern Leeward Islands early this week, and then reach the Bahamas by midweek. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Peter Forecast Advisory Number 8
2021-09-20 16:44:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 20 2021 235 WTNT21 KNHC 201444 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM PETER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162021 1500 UTC MON SEP 20 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 60.9W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......110NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 60.9W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 60.3W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.1N 62.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...110NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.8N 64.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.8N 66.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.7N 67.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 23.5N 68.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 24.5N 68.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 26.5N 67.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 28.6N 66.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 60.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Storm Rose Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2021-09-20 16:44:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 20 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 201444 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM ROSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172021 1500 UTC MON SEP 20 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ROSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 33.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Summary for Tropical Storm Rose (AT2/AL172021)
2021-09-20 16:43:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ROSE MIGHT NOT BLOOM INTO A MUCH STRONGER STORM ... As of 11:00 AM AST Mon Sep 20 the center of Rose was located near 17.3, -33.4 with movement NW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Rose Public Advisory Number 6
2021-09-20 16:43:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 20 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 201443 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rose Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 20 2021 ...ROSE MIGHT NOT BLOOM INTO A MUCH STRONGER STORM ... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 33.4W ABOUT 620 MI...1000 KM WNW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rose was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 33.4 West. Rose is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion with a slower forward speed is expected over the next few days. Satellite wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days, and Rose could weaken into a tropical depression by Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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