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Tropical Storm Rose Public Advisory Number 5
2021-09-20 10:42:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 20 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 200842 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rose Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021 500 AM AST Mon Sep 20 2021 ...ROSE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 32.6W ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rose was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 32.6 West. Rose is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion at a slightly slower forward speed is forecast over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight strengthening will be possible today. By Tuesday, however, upper-level winds are expected to become less conducive, and Rose is forecast to begin a slow weakening trend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Rose Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2021-09-20 10:42:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 20 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 200842 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM ROSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172021 0900 UTC MON SEP 20 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ROSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm Peter Graphics
2021-09-20 10:42:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 20 Sep 2021 08:42:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 20 Sep 2021 09:23:22 GMT
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Tropical Storm Rose Forecast Advisory Number 5
2021-09-20 10:42:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 20 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 200842 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM ROSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172021 0900 UTC MON SEP 20 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 32.6W AT 20/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 32.6W AT 20/0900Z AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 32.1W FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 17.5N 33.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 19.8N 35.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.7N 36.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 23.0N 37.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 24.2N 38.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 25.2N 39.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 27.3N 41.3W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 29.2N 40.6W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 32.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Summary for Tropical Storm Peter (AT1/AL162021)
2021-09-20 10:41:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS PETER HAS CHANGED LITTLE... ...TROPICAL STORM EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS EARLY THIS WEEK... As of 5:00 AM AST Mon Sep 20 the center of Peter was located near 19.1, -59.5 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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