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Tropical Storm Rose Forecast Advisory Number 6
2021-09-20 16:42:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 20 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 201442 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM ROSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172021 1500 UTC MON SEP 20 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 33.4W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 33.4W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 33.0W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.0N 34.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.0N 36.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.6N 37.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 24.1N 38.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 25.4N 39.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 26.7N 40.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 29.0N 40.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 31.0N 38.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 33.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm Rose Forecast Discussion Number 5
2021-09-20 10:59:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 20 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 200859 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Rose Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021 500 AM AST Mon Sep 20 2021 Rose remains a sheared tropical storm with the low-level center located near the eastern edge of the convective cloud mass based on an earlier 0359Z AMSR2 microwave overpass. These same data also revealed that a well-defined mid-level circulation center was located about 80-90 nmi west of the low-level center, an indication of the magnitude and effect of the mid-level shear impinging on the cyclone. The intensity of 35 kt is being maintained for this advisory based on subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates of 35 from both TAFB and SAB. Objective estimates from UW-CIMSS are higher at 45-55 kt, which are considered to be unrepresentative due to the severe westward tilt of Rose's vortex column. The initial motion estimate is northwestward or 315/13 kt. Rose is expected to move generally northwestward around the southwestern and western periphery of a strong subtropical ridge during the next few days. By day 4 and beyond, a mid- to upper-level trough over the north-central Atlantic is forecast to dig southeastward, causing the cyclone to turn northward. The latest NHC model guidance remains in excellent agreement on this track scenario through 72 hours, but then diverge significantly thereafter owing to whether Rose weakens to shallow system or remains a little stringer and deeper. The weaker solutions go more toward the northwest and the stronger solutions take Rose northeastward. The NHC forecast track on days 4 and 5 is a blend of these two extremes. Rose only has about 24 hours over warm waters and in a weak vertical wind shear regime that will allow for some addition strengthening to occur. On days 2-5, however, increasing westerly shear is expected to induce some gradual weakening. Rose is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression by 96 hours, although some of the models suggest that weakening could occur faster than indicated below, and that Rose could degenerate into a remnant low by the end of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 15.9N 32.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 17.5N 33.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 19.8N 35.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 21.7N 36.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 22/0600Z 23.0N 37.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 22/1800Z 24.2N 38.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 23/0600Z 25.2N 39.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 24/0600Z 27.3N 41.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 120H 25/0600Z 29.2N 40.6W 25 KT 30 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Peter Forecast Discussion Number 7
2021-09-20 10:48:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 20 2021 000 WTNT41 KNHC 200848 CCA TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Peter Discussion Number 7...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021 500 AM AST Mon Sep 20 2021 Corrected name of storm in first and second paragraphs Peter is a strongly sheared tropical storm. Reconnaissance wind data, conventional satellite imagery, and passive microwave satellite data indicate that Peter's center is located just to the west of the deep convection. Data from the aircraft support holding the intensity at 45 kt for now based on 925-mb flight-level and SFMR winds of 53 kt and 41 kt, respectively, on their last leg when the aircraft came in from the northeast. The central pressure had also increased only slightly to 1006 mb. Peter has continued to move west-northwestward, or 295/12 kt. There are no significant changes to the previous track forecast or reasoning. Peter is expected to move around the southwestern and western periphery of a subtropical ridge for the next couple of days, followed by a slow northward motion on days 3-5 as the cyclone moves through a weakness in the ridge induced by the southward-moving former Tropical Storm Odette. The new NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory track, and lies just to the east of the tightly packed consensus track models. Some fluctuations in intensity will be possible during the next 24-36 hours owing to 5-10 kt fluctuations in the magnitude and also the direction of the deep-layer vertical wind shear. However, by 48 hours and beyond, a slow weakening trend is expected due to the shear increasing from the southwest and west-southwest of near 30 kt. The new official intensity forecast is essentially just an update of the previous advisory, and closely follows the IVCN and HCCA intensity consensus models. Based on the latest track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts, no tropical storm watches or warnings are required for the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, or Puerto Rico at this time. However, locally heavy rain is possible on Monday and Tuesday when Peter is expected to pass to the north of these locations. Key Messages: Rainfall around the southern periphery of Tropical Storm Peter may lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding through Tuesday across Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the Northern Leeward Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 19.1N 59.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 19.7N 61.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 20.4N 63.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 21.4N 65.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 22/0600Z 22.4N 67.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 22/1800Z 23.2N 68.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 23/0600Z 24.2N 68.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 24/0600Z 26.2N 67.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 120H 25/0600Z 28.5N 66.8W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Rose Graphics
2021-09-20 10:43:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 20 Sep 2021 08:43:45 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 20 Sep 2021 09:29:32 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Rose (AT2/AL172021)
2021-09-20 10:42:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ROSE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 5:00 AM AST Mon Sep 20 the center of Rose was located near 15.9, -32.6 with movement NW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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