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Tropical Storm Zeta Public Advisory Number 8A
2020-10-26 18:56:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 261756 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Zeta Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020 100 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020 ...ZETA HEADED FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.3N 85.6W ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Tulum to Dzilam Mexico * Cozumel A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Pinar del Rio Cuba * South of Tulum to Punta Allen * West of Dzilam to Progreso A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Watches will likely be required for a portion of the northern Gulf Coast later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 19.3 North, longitude 85.6 West. Zeta is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A northwestward motion with some increase in forward speed is expected over the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the north Tuesday night. A faster northward to north-northeastward motion is forecast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will move near or over the northern Yucatan Peninsula later today or tonight, move over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, and approach the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Zeta is expected to become a hurricane later today. Some weakening is likely while Zeta moves over the Yucatan Peninsula tonight and early Tuesday. Zeta is forecast to strengthen again while it moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico later on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml. RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of 12 inches are possible through Tuesday along and east-northeast of Zeta's track across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, the Cayman Islands, and central to western Cuba. Heavy rains will begin to impact the central Gulf Coast Tuesday night, spreading inland across eastern Mississippi, Alabama, northern Georgia during Wednesday, through the southern Appalachians Wednesday night and into the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts of 6 inches are expected across these areas, resulting in flash, urban, small stream, and minor river flooding. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula by late today. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area in Mexico by late today. Tropical storm conditions could occur in the warning area in western Cuba beginning later today. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in the Hurricane Warning area near and to the north of where the center makes landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Oil Producers Begin Evacuating Gulf of Mexico Platforms Ahead of Tropical Storm Zeta
2020-10-26 16:00:00| OGI
BP, BHP, Chevron, Equinor and Shell began withdrawing staff from their offshore oil and gas facilities in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico ahead of Tropical Storm Zeta.
Tropical Storm Zeta Graphics
2020-10-26 15:50:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 26 Oct 2020 14:50:59 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 26 Oct 2020 15:25:25 GMT
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Tropical Storm Zeta Forecast Discussion Number 8
2020-10-26 15:50:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 261450 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Zeta Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020 1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020 After a significant strengthening episode early this morning, Zeta appears to have changed little in intensity recently. High spatial and temporal resolution GOES-16 visible satellite images indicate that the low-level center of the storm is located near the northwestern edge of the main area of vigorous deep convection. The current intensity estimate is held at 60 kt which is the average of recent Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Zeta in a few hours, and should provide a better estimate of the strength of the storm. Zeta is moving northwestward, or about 305/9 kt. A mid-level high pressure area centered just east of Florida should steer the tropical cyclone on a continued northwestward heading for the next day or so, taking center over the northern part of the Yucatan Peninsula. By around 48 hours, Zeta is expected to turn northward over the Gulf along the western side of the high. Afterward, a shortwave trough moving into the southern Plains should induce a turn toward the north-northeast and take the center inland over the southern United States. The system should then move fairly quickly northeastward across the eastern U.S. and emerge into the Atlantic by day 4. The official track forecast has been adjusted a bit to the west of the previous one but not quite as far west as the corrected model consensus. Zeta is apparently experiencing some north-northwesterly shear given the displacement of the low-level center from the convection. However, this shear is expected to abate very soon, and the cyclone is likely to strengthen into a hurricane before reaching the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula. Some weakening should occur while Zeta interacts with land during the next 12 to 24 hours. The atmospheric and oceanic environment should be somewhat conducive while the system moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico in a day or two, and the official forecast shows some re-strengthening in 24-36 hours. Later in the forecast period, when Zeta approaches the northern Gulf Coast, cooler shelf waters and some increase in southwesterly shear could cause some weakening. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous ones and shows Zeta still near hurricane strength at landfall along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast, which is near or above most of the model guidance. Zeta is likely to become an extratropical cyclone when it emerges into the Atlantic, and be absorbed by a frontal system around the end of the forecast period. Given the timing of the track and the forecast wind radii, watches will likely be required for a portion of the northern Gulf Coast later today. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected in portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico tonight and early Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions could occur over extreme western Cuba beginning later today. 2. Through Tuesday, heavy rainfall is expected from Zeta across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, the Cayman Islands, and central to western Cuba. This rainfall may lead to flash flooding in urban areas. Between Tuesday night and Thursday, heavy rainfall is expected from portions of the central U.S. Gulf Coast into the southern Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic States near and in advance of Zeta. This rainfall will lead to flash, urban, small stream, and minor river flooding. 3. Zeta is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength when it approaches the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday, and there is an increasing risk of dangerous storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of Zeta, as Hurricane and Storm Surge watches will likely be issued later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 19.1N 85.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 20.1N 86.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 21.5N 88.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 23.3N 90.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 28/1200Z 25.7N 91.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 29/0000Z 28.9N 90.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 29/1200Z 33.0N 87.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 30/1200Z 40.0N 73.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Tropical Storm Zeta (AT3/AL282020)
2020-10-26 15:48:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY LATE TODAY... As of 10:00 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 the center of Zeta was located near 19.1, -85.3 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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