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Tropical Storm Zeta Public Advisory Number 7A
2020-10-26 12:52:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM EDT Mon Oct 26 2020 984 WTNT33 KNHC 261152 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Zeta Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020 800 AM EDT Mon Oct 26 2020 ...ZETA EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY LATE TODAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.9N 84.8W ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Tulum to Dzilam Mexico * Cozumel A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Pinar del Rio Cuba * South of Tulum to Punta Allen * West of Dzilam to Progreso A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Watches will likely be required for a portion of the northern Gulf coast later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was located by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 84.8 West. Zeta is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected over the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the north Tuesday night. A faster northward to north-northeastward motion is forecast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will move near or over the northern Yucatan Peninsula later today or tonight, move over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, and approach the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday. Observations from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Zeta is expected to become a hurricane later this morning. Additional strengthening is expected before Zeta moves over the Yucatan Peninsula. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The latest minimum central pressure reported by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 992 mb (29.29 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml. RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of 12 inches are possible through Tuesday along and east-northeast of Zetas track across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, the Cayman Islands, and central to western Cuba. Between Tuesday night and Thursday, storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts of 6 inches is expected across portions of the central U.S. Gulf Coast, Tennessee Valley, southern Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic States near and in advance of Zeta. The expected rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with minor river flooding. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula by late today. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area in Mexico by late today. Tropical storm conditions could occur in the warning area in western Cuba beginning later today. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1-3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in the Hurricane Warning area near and to the north of where the center makes landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Zeta Graphics
2020-10-26 09:54:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 26 Oct 2020 08:54:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 26 Oct 2020 09:25:23 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Zeta (AT3/AL282020)
2020-10-26 09:52:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS ZETA RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY LATE TODAY... As of 5:00 AM EDT Mon Oct 26 the center of Zeta was located near 18.7, -84.3 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Zeta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2020-10-26 09:52:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON OCT 26 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 260852 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM ZETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282020 0900 UTC MON OCT 26 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ZETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) DOVER DE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) X(17) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) X(19) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) X(16) PAX RIVER NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) X(20) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) WALLOPS CDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) X(17) RICHMOND VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) X(16) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) X(16) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) NORFOLK NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) X(16) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) X(16) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) X(15) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) X(15) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) X(15) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) X(16) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) X(16) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) X(19) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) X(15) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) X(10) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) X(12) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 4(18) X(18) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 7(26) X(26) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) DESTIN EXEC AP 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 15(23) X(23) COLUMBUS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 7(18) X(18) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 11(27) X(27) MONTGOMERY AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 7(33) X(33) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) WHITING FLD FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 6(33) X(33) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) 2(28) X(28) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 35(35) 4(39) X(39) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 38(38) 2(40) X(40) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 38(38) 1(39) X(39) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 43(44) 1(45) X(45) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) X(14) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 45(53) X(53) X(53) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) X(16) X(16) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 35(35) 1(36) X(36) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 48(59) 1(60) X(60) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 27(28) 1(29) X(29) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) X(19) X(19) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) X(26) X(26) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) X(15) X(15) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 13(20) X(20) X(20) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MERIDA MX 34 1 7( 8) 14(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) MERIDA MX 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MERIDA MX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) COZUMEL MX 34 6 88(94) 2(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) COZUMEL MX 50 2 76(78) 2(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) COZUMEL MX 64 X 47(47) 1(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) BELIZE CITY 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GUANAJA 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 4 11(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HAVANA 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLE OF PINES 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GRAND CAYMAN 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 34(34) 4(38) X(38) PENSACOLA NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) PENSACOLA NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 43(43) 3(46) X(46) KEESLER AB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) X(13) KEESLER AB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm Zeta Public Advisory Number 7
2020-10-26 09:52:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Mon Oct 26 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 260852 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Zeta Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020 500 AM EDT Mon Oct 26 2020 ...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS ZETA RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY LATE TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.7N 84.3W ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has extended the Hurricane Warning westward along the northern coast of the Yucatan peninsula to Dzilam. The government of Mexico has also issued a Tropical Storm Warning from south of Tulum to Punta Allen and from west of Dzilam to Progreso. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Tulum to Dzilam Mexico * Cozumel A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Pinar del Rio Cuba * South of Tulum to Punta Allen * West of Dzilam to Progreso A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was located by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 84.3 West. Zeta is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected over the day or so, followed by a turn toward the north Tuesday night. A faster northward to north-northeastward motion is forecast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will move near or over the northern Yucatan Peninsula later today or tonight, move over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, and approach the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday. Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Zeta is expected to become a hurricane later this morning. Additional strengthening is expected before Zeta moves over the Yucatan Peninsula. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The latest minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA reconnaissance aircraft data is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml. RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of 12 inches are possible through Tuesday along and east-northeast of Zetas track across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, the Cayman Islands, and central to western Cuba. Between Tuesday night and Thursday, storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts of 6 inches is expected across portions of the central U.S. Gulf Coast, Tennessee Valley, southern Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic States near and in advance of Zeta. The expected rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with minor river flooding. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula by late today. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area in Mexico by late today. Tropical storm conditions could occur in the warning area in western Cuba beginning later today. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1-3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in the Hurricane Warning area near and to the north of where the center makes landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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