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Tropical Storm Zeta Public Advisory Number 3
2020-10-25 09:46:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 250845 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Zeta Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020 500 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020 ...ZETA MEANDERING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.7N 83.5W ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Pinar del Rio Cuba A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Tulum to Rio Lagartos Mexico * Cozumel A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was located a NOAA reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 83.6 West. Zeta is currently stationary and is continuing to re-organize. However, a slow north-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected to resume later today. A turn toward the west-northwest and an increase in forward speed are forecast by Monday, followed by a faster northwestward motion on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will pass south of western Cuba early Monday and move near or over the northern Yucatan Peninsula or Yucatan Channel late Monday, move into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, and reach the central Gulf of Mexico by late Tuesday. Data from the aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next 48 to 72 hours, and Zeta is forecast to become a hurricane by early Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km), mainly southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on reports from the NOAA aircraft is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall bands will be expansive along and east-northeast of Zetas track. Across portions of central and western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the northeast Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, Southern Florida and the Keys, storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of 12 inches are possible through Wednesday. By Wednesday, heavy rainfall associated with Zeta will begin to affect the central Gulf Coast region, which may lead to flash flooding in urban areas. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in Cuba by Monday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in Mexico by Monday evening. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Zeta Forecast Advisory Number 3
2020-10-25 09:45:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 25 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 250845 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282020 0900 UTC SUN OCT 25 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PINAR DEL RIO CUBA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TULUM TO RIO LAGARTOS MEXICO * COZUMEL A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 83.5W AT 25/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 1 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 83.5W AT 25/0900Z AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 83.5W FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 18.2N 83.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 18.9N 84.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 19.8N 85.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 21.1N 87.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 22.9N 89.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 25.4N 90.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 30SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 32.0N 89.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 83.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 25/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Zeta Graphics
2020-10-25 06:52:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 25 Oct 2020 05:52:05 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 25 Oct 2020 03:32:15 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Zeta (AT3/AL282020)
2020-10-25 06:50:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM ZETA... ...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN... As of 2:00 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 the center of Zeta was located near 18.5, -83.5 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Zeta Public Advisory Number 2A
2020-10-25 06:50:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 250550 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Zeta Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020 200 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM ZETA... ...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.5N 83.5W ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Pinar del Rio Cuba A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Tulum to Rio Lagartos Mexico * Cozumel A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was located near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 83.5 West. Zeta is currently stationary and is re-organizing. However, a slow north- northwestward to northwestward motion is expected to resume later today. A turn toward the west-northwest and an increase in forward speed are forecast by Monday, followed by a faster northwestward motion on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will pass south of western Cuba early Monday and move near or over the northern Yucatan Peninsula or Yucatan Channel late Monday, move into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, and reach the central Gulf of Mexico by late Tuesday. Recent satellite-derived surface wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the next 48 to 72 hours, and Zeta is forecast to become a hurricane by early Tuesday. A NOAA reconnaissance aircraft is currently en route to investigate Zeta. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km), mainly southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. RAINFALL: Across portions of central and western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the northeast Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, southern Florida and the Florida Keys, storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of 12 inches are possible through Wednesday. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in Cuba by Monday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in Mexico by Monday evening. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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