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Tropical Storm Epsilon Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2020-10-20 04:39:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 20 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 200239 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM EPSILON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020 0300 UTC TUE OCT 20 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) 23(47) 6(53) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) 5(22) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Summary for Tropical Storm Epsilon (AT2/AL272020)
2020-10-20 04:39:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...EPSILON MEANDERING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA... As of 11:00 PM AST Mon Oct 19 the center of Epsilon was located near 25.3, -55.3 with movement N at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Epsilon Public Advisory Number 4
2020-10-20 04:39:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Oct 19 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 200239 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Epsilon Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 1100 PM AST Mon Oct 19 2020 ...EPSILON MEANDERING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.3N 55.3W ABOUT 750 MI...1210 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warning in effect. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Epsilon. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Epsilon was located near latitude 25.3 North, longitude 55.3 West. Epsilon is drifting toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h), and this general motion should continue tonight and early Tuesday. A northwestward motion is expected to begin by Tuesday afternoon and continue through midweek. On the forecast track, Epsilon is forecast to approach Bermuda on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and Epsilon is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength by Wednesday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon are expected to affect Bermuda for the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Epsilon Forecast Advisory Number 4
2020-10-20 04:39:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 20 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 200239 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020 0300 UTC TUE OCT 20 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNING IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EPSILON. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 55.3W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......240NE 60SE 0SW 240NW. 12 FT SEAS..600NE 60SE 240SW 480NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 55.3W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 55.3W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 26.1N 55.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...250NE 90SE 0SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 27.5N 56.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...270NE 100SE 40SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 28.3N 58.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...270NE 110SE 60SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 29.1N 59.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 50SE 20SW 70NW. 34 KT...210NE 100SE 80SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 30.4N 60.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 150SE 90SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 31.3N 61.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 130SE 100SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 32.9N 62.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 36.4N 60.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.3N 55.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Epsilon Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-10-19 22:51:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Oct 19 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 192051 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Epsilon Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 500 PM AST Mon Oct 19 2020 Earlier this afternoon, Epsilon had a hybrid-type structure in satellite imagery, with a partially exposed center and a broken convective band that wrapped around the northern and eastern sides of the storm. However, recent satellite imagery shows a small convective burst near the center that gives Epsilon a more tropical appearance. ASCAT-B/C passes from this morning indicate the system has a large and asymmetric wind field, with 34-kt winds extending over 200 nm away from the center in the northern semicircle. This is, in part, attributable to the environmental pressure gradient with a strong high pressure ridge centered east of the Canadian Maritimes. The initial intensity is raised to 40 kt with this advisory, supported by a T2.5 subjective Dvorak classification from TAFB and a 37-kt objective 14Z SATCON estimate. Warm sea-surface temperatures and moderate southwesterly vertical wind shear should allow for gradual strengthening over the next day or so. By 36-48 h, a period of weaker wind shear should allow Epsilon to continue strengthening while becoming better organized and eventually developing a more symmetric wind field. There is still increasing spread in the intensity guidance beyond 48 h, with a split between the stronger statistical-dynamical guidance and the weaker regional hurricane models. Given these mixed signals, little change was made to the intensity forecast with this advisory. The official NHC intensity forecast lies on the higher end of the guidance consensus, but remains lower than SHIPS/LGEM. The official forecast now calls for Epsilon to become a hurricane on Wednesday. Epsilon remains nearly stationary as it meanders over the central Atlantic under weak steering currents. The cyclone should begin moving slowly northward tonight, then turn northwestward with a faster forward speed through midweek as a mid- to upper-level ridge is expected to build to the north and northeast of Epsilon. The current NHC forecast track shows Epsilon making its closest approach to Bermuda on Friday. By this weekend, the cyclone should begin turning northward ahead of an upper-level trough expected to move off the northeastern U.S. coast. Most of the track guidance is tightly clustered for the next several days, except for the latest HWRF. The track guidance has shifted slightly to the right, and so the NHC track forecast has been adjusted similarly to reflect the latest guidance consensus. Key Message: 1. Epsilon is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength when it approaches Bermuda late this week. While it is too soon to determine the exact details of Epsilon's track and intensity near the island, there is a risk of direct impacts from wind, rainfall, and storm surge on Bermuda, and interests there should closely monitor the progress of Epsilon. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 25.5N 55.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 25.9N 55.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 27.0N 56.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 28.1N 57.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 21/1800Z 28.8N 59.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 22/0600Z 29.8N 60.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 22/1800Z 31.1N 61.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 23/1800Z 32.8N 62.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 24/1800Z 35.5N 62.3W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Brown
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