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Tropical Storm Norbert Forecast Discussion Number 5
2020-10-06 22:34:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Oct 06 2020 065 WTPZ44 KNHC 062034 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Norbert Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 300 PM MDT Tue Oct 06 2020 A compact central dense overcast with cloud tops occasionally cooling to -80 degrees C has persisted over the center of Norbert throughout the day. A recent ASCAT overpass showed peak winds of 41 kt near the center of storm. However, due to the small size of the cyclone, the highest winds are likely not being sampled. Therefore, the initial intensity is being raised to 45 kt, and this is in good agreement with the latest Dvorak CI values from TAFB and SAB. Norbert is expected to remain in an environment of low vertical wind shear while over very warm waters for the next couple of days. Despite the positive environmental factors in the near term, model guidance is in poor agreement on the future intensity of Norbert. The spread in the forecast intensity has widened even further today, with most of the global and hi-resolution dynamical models weakening the system over the next few days, while the SHIPS and LGEM guidance favor slow strengthening. Since the SHIPS guidance has been the most accurate for Norbert's intensity thus far, the latest NHC forecast is close to, but just below the SHIPS guidance values through 48 h. After 48 h, the shear is expected to become moderate, and there are indications that subsidence will increase over the cyclone. These negative environmental factors should inhibit further intensification, and could cause the cyclone to weaken. The steering currents around Norbert are collapsing, as the mid-level ridge over southern Mexico dissipates in response to Hurricane Delta over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Model tracks diverge by a few hundred miles in varying directions while the steering flow is weak. The consensus guidance is in between these solutions and shows very little movement for the next 72 h. By late this week, a weak mid-level ridge should build north of the cyclone, which would result in a slow west-northwestward to westward motion. The latest NHC track forecast remains close to the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 14.4N 106.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 14.5N 106.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 14.5N 106.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 14.5N 106.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 14.5N 106.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 09/0600Z 14.5N 107.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 09/1800Z 14.8N 108.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 10/1800Z 15.5N 110.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 11/1800Z 16.0N 112.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto
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Summary for Tropical Storm Norbert (EP4/EP192020)
2020-10-06 22:33:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NORBERT STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS... As of 3:00 PM MDT Tue Oct 6 the center of Norbert was located near 14.4, -106.6 with movement N at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Norbert Public Advisory Number 5
2020-10-06 22:33:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Oct 06 2020 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 062033 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Norbert Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 300 PM MDT Tue Oct 06 2020 ...NORBERT STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.4N 106.6W ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Norbert was located near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 106.6 West. Norbert is moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h). The storm is forecast to meander or be nearly stationary over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is possible over the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Norbert Forecast Advisory Number 5
2020-10-06 22:33:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 062033 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 2100 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 106.6W AT 06/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 106.6W AT 06/2100Z AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 106.6W FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 14.5N 106.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 14.5N 106.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 14.5N 106.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 14.5N 106.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 14.5N 107.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 14.8N 108.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 15.5N 110.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 16.0N 112.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 106.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Storm Norbert Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2020-10-06 22:33:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 062033 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORBERT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 2100 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 105W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 105W 34 X 3( 3) 9(12) 8(20) 7(27) 1(28) X(28) 15N 105W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CLIPPERTON IS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 10N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 13(18) 17(35) 5(40) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 2(11) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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