je.st
news
Tag: storm
Tropical Storm Marie Forecast Discussion Number 28
2020-10-06 04:33:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM HST Mon Oct 05 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 060233 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 500 PM HST Mon Oct 05 2020 Marie is making one last grasp at holding on to tropical cyclone status. Convection has both deepened and moved closer to the center of the cyclone since the last advisory. Although this convection is still displaced well to the north of Marie's center, it appears to be sufficient to maintain advisories for the moment. The initial intensity of 40 kt is based on earlier ASCAT data, assuming gradual weakening since then. This assessment may be generous, but we will likely get more scatterometer data before the next advisory. Despite its recent marginal convective resurgence, Marie is still moving over cold SSTs and through a hostile environment. It is therefore forecast to become a remnant low within 12 h. The aforementioned ASCAT data showed Marie was still producing a wide area of 35 kt or greater winds, and it will take a little while for the large circulation to spin down. Most of the models indicate that Marie will degenerate into a trough of low pressure in about 4 days, and this is reflected in the NHC forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 21.4N 133.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 21.9N 134.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 07/0000Z 22.5N 136.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/1200Z 22.9N 137.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 08/0000Z 23.1N 138.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 08/1200Z 23.0N 139.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 09/0000Z 22.9N 140.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
Tags: number
discussion
marie
storm
Tropical Storm Marie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 28
2020-10-06 04:33:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 759 FOPZ13 KNHC 060233 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 0300 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 133.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 135W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 135W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 140W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Summary for Tropical Storm Marie (EP3/EP182020)
2020-10-06 04:32:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MARIE HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL STORM BUT FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOON... As of 5:00 PM HST Mon Oct 5 the center of Marie was located near 21.4, -133.5 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Tags: summary
marie
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm Marie Public Advisory Number 28
2020-10-06 04:32:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM HST Mon Oct 05 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 060232 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Marie Advisory Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 500 PM HST Mon Oct 05 2020 ...MARIE HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL STORM BUT FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOON... SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.4N 133.5W ABOUT 1510 MI...2430 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marie was located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 133.5 West. Marie is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). This general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days, followed by a turn toward the west late Wednesday or early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Gradual weakening is anticipated. Marie is forecast to become a remnant low on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
Tags: number
public
marie
storm
Tropical Storm Marie Forecast Advisory Number 28
2020-10-06 04:32:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 060232 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 0300 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 133.5W AT 06/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 60SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 180SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 133.5W AT 06/0300Z AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 133.1W FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 21.9N 134.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 22.5N 136.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 22.9N 137.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 23.1N 138.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 23.0N 139.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 22.9N 140.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 133.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Tags: number
marie
storm
advisory
Sites : [635] [636] [637] [638] [639] [640] [641] [642] [643] [644] [645] [646] [647] [648] [649] [650] [651] [652] [653] [654] next »