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Tropical Storm Nicholas Forecast Discussion Number 11
2021-09-14 22:56:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021 000 WTNT44 KNHC 142056 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Nicholas Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021 400 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021 Doppler weather radar data from Houston and Lake Charles, along with surface observations, indicate that the intensity of Nicholas has remained steady over the past several hours despite having moved a little farther inland over the upper Texas coastal plain. Both satellite and radar data also indicate that the overall circulation has tightened up somewhat, although a large swath of stable low clouds have advected into most of the southern semicircle of Nicholas' circulation. The highest sustained wind speeds of 34-36 kt have occurred in a narrow band of fragmented, shallow convection between Sabine Pass, Texas, and Cameron, Louisiana, during the past couple of hours. Doppler radar velocity data from Lake Charles has also indicated wind speeds of 40-45 at 3,000 ft altitude just offshore the southwestern coast of Louisiana. Based on these wind data, the initial intensity is set at 35 kt. The estimated central pressure of 1003 mb is based on nearby surface observations, especially the reports from the Eagle Point, Texas, C-MAN station, which indicate that the center of Nicholas passed over or near that station between 1800-1900 UTC. As Nicholas moves farther inland, gradual weakening is forecast due to land interaction, entrainment of drier and more stable low- and mid-level air, and strong westerly vertical wind shear in excess of 30 kt. Nicholas is forecast to become a tropical depression later this evening and degenerate into a remnant low by late Wednesday or early Thursday. The initial motion estimate is east-northeastward or 070 degrees at 5 kt. Nicholas is forecast by most of the global and regional models continue its east-east-northeastward motion through tonight, followed by an eastward motion at a slower forward speed on Wednesday and Thursday. Nicholas could still stall over southwestern or central Louisiana as the low-level steering flow collapses on Thursday. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies near the consensus track models TCVA and NOAA-HCCA. Although the winds associated with Nicholas will gradually subside, heavy rainfall and a significant flash flood risk will continue along the Gulf Coast for the next couple of days. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall will impact areas across southern and central Louisiana, southern Mississippi, far southern Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle through early Friday. Significant rainfall amounts are expected, potentially resulting in areas of life-threatening flash and urban flooding across these areas. Widespread minor to isolated moderate river flooding is also possible. 2. Storm surge inundation along the coasts of upper Texas and southwestern Louisiana will gradually diminish into tonight. 3. Tropical storm conditions in the warning area long portions of the upper Texas and southwestern Louisiana coasts will gradually subside by this evening. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 29.6N 94.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 15/0600Z 29.8N 94.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 15/1800Z 30.0N 93.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 16/0600Z 30.1N 92.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 16/1800Z 30.5N 92.4W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 17/0600Z 30.9N 92.4W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Nicholas Graphics
2021-09-14 22:52:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 14 Sep 2021 20:52:36 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 14 Sep 2021 20:52:36 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Nicholas (AT4/AL142021)
2021-09-14 22:51:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NICHOLAS MOVING SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DEEP SOUTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... As of 4:00 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 the center of Nicholas was located near 29.6, -94.6 with movement ENE at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Nicholas Public Advisory Number 11
2021-09-14 22:51:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021 000 WTNT34 KNHC 142051 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nicholas Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021 400 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021 ...NICHOLAS MOVING SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DEEP SOUTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.6N 94.6W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM E OF HOUSTON TEXAS ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM WSW OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Warning and Storm Surge Watch have been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * High Island Texas to Cameron Louisiana A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicholas was located by Doppler radars, satellites, and surface observations near latitude 29.6 North, longitude 94.6 West. Nicholas is moving toward the east-northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h) and this general motion should continue through tonight. An eastward turn is expected over Louisiana by Wednesday. Little motion is anticipated on Thursday. NOAA Doppler weather radar and surface observations indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Nicholas is forecast to become a tropical depression this evening and degenerate into a remnant low on Wednesday or by early Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. A NOAA Ocean Service observing station at Calcasieu Pass, Louisiana, recently reported a 1-minute sustained wind of 36 mph (57 km/h) and a gust to 43 mph (69 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches) based on nearby surface observations. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nicholas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages RAINFALL: Nicholas is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches across portions of southern and central Louisiana, southern Mississippi, far southern Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle through early Friday, with isolated storm totals of 20 inches possible from southern Louisiana to the far western Florida Panhandle. Life-threatening flash flooding impacts, especially in urban areas, are possible across these regions. Widespread minor to isolated moderate river flooding is expected across portions of the upper Texas Gulf Coast and southern Louisiana and Mississippi. For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Tropical Storm Nicholas see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44KWBC or at the following link https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... San Luis Pass to Intracoastal City, LA...1-3 ft Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake...1-3 ft Galveston Bay...1-3 ft Storm surge levels will gradually subside into this evening. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue along the Louisiana and upper Texas coasts this afternoon, and gradually diminish by this evening. TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible this afternoon into tonight across southern Louisiana. SURF: Swells generated by Nicholas will continue affecting portions of the northwest Gulf coast this afternoon and gradually subside this evening. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Nicholas Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2021-09-14 22:51:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 14 2021 000 FONT14 KNHC 142051 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142021 2100 UTC TUE SEP 14 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BATON ROUGE LA 34 1 6( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) MORGAN CITY LA 34 1 7( 8) 2(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 2 5( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) LAFAYETTE LA 34 5 9(14) 3(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) NEW IBERIA LA 34 5 9(14) 3(17) X(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) GFMX 280N 930W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FORT POLK LA 34 6 4(10) 1(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) LAKE CHARLES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CAMERON LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) JASPER TX 34 6 3( 9) X( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) KOUNTZE TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GALVESTON TX 34 5 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 6 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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