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Tropical Storm Odette Graphics
2021-09-17 22:39:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 17 Sep 2021 20:39:24 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 17 Sep 2021 21:22:44 GMT
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Tropical Storm Odette Forecast Discussion Number 1
2021-09-17 22:38:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Fri Sep 17 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 172037 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Odette Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152021 500 PM EDT Fri Sep 17 2021 The circulation associated with the area of low pressure off the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast has become better defined today, with a new center having developed near a persistent cluster of deep convection. This system has some non-tropical characteristics, with a developing frontal boundary draped around the northern and western side of the circulation. Although the convection is being sheared off to the northeast of the center, the structure still resembles that of a tropical cyclone. An ASCAT-C pass from a few hours ago showed that maximum winds were 30-35 kt to the north of the center, thus advisories are being initiated on Tropical Storm Odette with 35-kt winds. With the re-formation of the center, the initial motion is uncertain but is estimated to be northeastward, or 045/13 kt. Odette is embedded between the subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic and a deep-layer trough over the U.S. Upper Midwest and central Canada. The approach of this trough should cause Odette to accelerate toward the northeast and then east-northeast during the next few days. After about day 3, there is significant divergence among the models. The GFS ejects the system northeastward and stalls it over the north Atlantic, south of Greenland. The ECMWF, UKMET, and Canadian models, however, stall the cyclone sooner and have it meandering south of Newfoundland on days 4 and 5. For now, the NHC track forecast shows Odette slowing down significantly on those days (less than 5 kt on day 5) and is a blend of the TVCA and HCCA consensus aids. Odette's transition to an extratropical cyclone is probably already underway. The storm is also centered over the Gulf Stream, where water temperatures are about 28 degrees Celsius, so in the short term it is likely that a combination of baroclinic and convective forcing will cause some intensification, despite deep-layer shear strengthening to near 30 kt. The global models suggest that Odette should become fully extratropical by 36 hours, and the intensity models indicate that the post-tropical low should peak in intensity in 48-60 hours. The low is then likely to occlude by day 3, a process which typically leads to gradual weakening, which is indicated in the official forecast. Odette is expected to affect portions of Newfoundland with strong winds and heavy rainfall Sunday and Sunday night as a post-tropical cyclone. Please refer to products from Environment Canada for additional information on potential impacts in Newfoundland. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 36.7N 71.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 38.3N 69.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 39.9N 65.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 41.6N 61.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 19/1800Z 43.6N 57.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 20/0600Z 45.0N 52.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 20/1800Z 46.0N 49.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 21/1800Z 47.0N 47.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 22/1800Z 47.5N 45.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Storm Odette (AT5/AL152021)
2021-09-17 22:37:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL STORM ODETTE FORMS OFF THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC COAST... ...FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY SATURDAY NIGHT SOUTH OF ATLANTIC CANADA... As of 5:00 PM EDT Fri Sep 17 the center of Odette was located near 36.7, -71.8 with movement NE at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Odette Public Advisory Number 1
2021-09-17 22:37:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Fri Sep 17 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 172036 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Odette Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152021 500 PM EDT Fri Sep 17 2021 ...TROPICAL STORM ODETTE FORMS OFF THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC COAST... ...FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY SATURDAY NIGHT SOUTH OF ATLANTIC CANADA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.7N 71.8W ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SE OF CAPE MAY NEW JERSEY ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Please refer to products issued by Environment Canada for Odette's potential impacts to Newfoundland as a post-tropical cyclone. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Odette was located near latitude 36.7 North, longitude 71.8 West. Odette is moving toward the northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue into tonight. A turn toward the east-northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected to begin on Saturday and continue through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Odette will move away from the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast and pass south of Atlantic Canada over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Odette is expected to become a strong post-tropical low by Saturday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Odette are affecting portions of the United States Mid-Atlantic coast and are expected to spread northward to portions of the U.S. Northeast and Atlantic Canada coasts during the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Odette Forecast Advisory Number 1
2021-09-17 22:37:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 17 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 172036 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ODETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152021 2100 UTC FRI SEP 17 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.7N 71.8W AT 17/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.7N 71.8W AT 17/2100Z AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.6N 71.9W FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 38.3N 69.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 39.9N 65.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 60SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 41.6N 61.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 50SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 120SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 43.6N 57.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT...180NE 240SE 180SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 45.0N 52.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 40SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...300NE 270SE 210SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 46.0N 49.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...390NE 300SE 240SW 300NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 47.0N 47.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 47.5N 45.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.7N 71.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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