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Tropical Storm Mindy Forecast Discussion Number 2
2021-09-09 04:46:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Wed Sep 08 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 090246 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Mindy Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132021 1100 PM EDT Wed Sep 08 2021 Doppler radar data and surface observations indicate that the center of Mindy made landfall over St. Vincent Island, Florida, near 0115 UTC. Since that time, the center has been moving along the shoreline of Apalachee Bay. The intensity is held at 40 kt based on continuity from earlier buoy data and a 43-kt wind at an elevated tower south of Apalachicola. The central pressure has been lowered to 1002 mb based on surface obs from the Apalachicola area. It should be noted that while Mindy is not well organized in satellite imagery, but it has a good radar presentation. The initial motion is 055/17. A general east-northeastward motion should continue for the next 24 h or so as Mindy moves along the southern edge of a deep-layer mid-latitude trough moving across the eastern United States. After that, a decrease in forward speed and a more eastward motion are expected as the aforementioned trough moves away from Mindy and the cyclone becomes vertically shallow. The forecast track keeps the center along the Gulf coast for a few more hours, followed by a motion across northern Florida and southeastern Georgia into the Atlantic. The new forecast track is a little faster than the previous forecast. Little change in strength is likely during the next few hours while the center of Mindy straddles the coast. Weakening should occur as the center moves farther inland later tonight, aided by an increase in westerly vertical wind shear. By the time the cyclone reaches the Atlantic, the shear should be strong enough to make the system continue to weaken. The new intensity forecast is a little stronger than the previous forecast during the first 12 h, then is similar to the previous forecast in calling for the cyclone to dissipate after 72 h. Key Messages: 1. Tropical Storm Mindy is expected to produce heavy rainfall from the Florida Panhandle into southern portions of Georgia and South Carolina through Thursday morning. This rainfall may produce isolated to scattered flash, urban, and small stream flooding. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected through tonight in portions of the Florida Panhandle where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are also possible across portions of the northern Florida Peninsula and southeastern Georgia near the center of Mindy. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 29.9N 84.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 31.0N 81.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 10/0000Z 32.2N 77.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 10/1200Z 33.1N 73.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 11/0000Z 33.7N 70.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 11/1200Z 34.1N 68.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/0000Z 34.3N 66.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Mindy Forecast Advisory Number 2
2021-09-09 04:46:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 090246 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM MINDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132021 0300 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED FOR THE FLORIDA GULF COAST WEST OF INDIAN PASS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INDIAN PASS TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. INTERESTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MINDY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 84.5W AT 09/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 84.5W AT 09/0300Z AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 85.4W FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 31.0N 81.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 32.2N 77.7W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 33.1N 73.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 33.7N 70.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 34.1N 68.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 34.3N 66.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.9N 84.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 09/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Mindy Public Advisory Number 2
2021-09-09 04:46:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Wed Sep 08 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 090246 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Mindy Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132021 1100 PM EDT Wed Sep 08 2021 ...CENTER OF MINDY MOVING ALONG THE COAST OF APALACHEE BAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.9N 84.5W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM ENE OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SSW OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning is discontinued for the Florida Gulf coast west of Indian pass. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Indian Pass to Steinhatchee River Florida A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests along the Atlantic coast of northeastern Florida and southeastern Georgia should monitor the progress of Mindy. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mindy was located near latitude 29.9 North, longitude 84.5 West. Mindy is moving toward the northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h) and an east-northeastward to eastward motion is expected to continue over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Mindy is expected to move along the coastline of Apalachee Bay for the next few hours, then move across the northern Florida Peninsula and southeastern Georgia into the Atlantic by tomorrow morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected as Mindy moves over land and into an area of unfavorable upper-level winds. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) mainly to the southeast of the center. The Tyndall Air Force Base tower south of Apalachicola recently reported sustained winds of 49 mph (80 km/h) and a wind gust of 61 mph (98 km/h) at an elevation of 115 ft (35 m). In addition, there are multiple reports of wind gusts near 55 mph (89 km/h) from St. George Island, Florida. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Mindy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Mindy is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches across the Florida Panhandle into southern portions of Georgia and South Carolina through Thursday morning. This rainfall may produce isolated to scattered flash, urban, and small stream flooding. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast within the warning area later this evening and tonight. Tropical-storm force winds may occur near the center of Mindy over portions of the northern Florida Peninsula and southeastern Georgia. TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible over portions of north Florida and far south Georgia through tomorrow morning. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Olaf Graphics
2021-09-09 04:38:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 09 Sep 2021 02:38:29 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 09 Sep 2021 02:38:30 GMT
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Tropical Storm Olaf Forecast Discussion Number 6
2021-09-09 04:37:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Wed Sep 08 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 090237 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Olaf Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 900 PM MDT Wed Sep 08 2021 Olaf appears to be gradually strengthening. Deep convection has been increasing over the center, and banding features are becoming a little more pronounced. The latest Dvorak estimates range from 35 to 45 kt. Since the system appears to be better organized from the time of the ASCAT pass earlier today, the initial intensity is nudged up and set near the high end of the estimates at 45 kt. Satellite images and recent microwave data suggest that the center of Olaf is a little to the east of the previous track, and the latest initial motion estimate is 335/6 kt. Olaf is expected to move generally northwestward for another 24 to 36 hours, which should bring the system just off the coast of southern Baja California Sur during that time. There is some spread in the models on how close the storm will get to the coastline, with the GFS to the east of the official forecast and the UKMET and ECMWF to the west and farther offshore. Beyond 36 hours, Olaf is expected to be located to the south of a strong mid-level ridge and that will cause a turn to the west-northwest away from Mexico. The NHC track forecast is adjusted again to the east of the previous one in the short term and then to the south of the previous one at the longer lead times. The new track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope, near the various consensus aids. Olaf is located over warm waters, and embedded in a low wind shear and fairly moist environment. These conditions should allow for additional strengthening during the next day or so. Although not explicitly forecast, Olaf could become a hurricane when it is just off the coast of southern Baja California Sur, and a hurricane watch remains in effect for the possibility of those winds occurring on land. By Friday, a combination of cooler waters and a much drier environment should cause steady weakening, and the system is likely to become a remnant low over the weekend. The NHC intensity forecast lies close to the IVCN and IVDR consensus models. Key Messages: 1. Olaf is forecast to strengthen to near hurricane intensity while it passes offshore of the southern portion of Baja California Sur Thursday and Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible across that area beginning late Thursday. Interests there should continue to monitor the progress of Olaf. 2. Heavy rains associated with Tropical Storm Olaf are possible across portions of far southern Baja California Sur Thursday through Friday. This will pose a threat of flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 20.0N 108.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 20.8N 108.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 21.9N 109.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 10/1200Z 22.8N 111.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 11/0000Z 23.4N 113.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 11/1200Z 23.5N 114.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 12/0000Z 23.3N 115.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 13/0000Z 22.6N 118.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 14/0000Z 21.7N 121.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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