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Tropical Depression Twenty Forecast Advisory Number 1
2021-09-29 16:35:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 29 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 291435 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202021 1500 UTC WED SEP 29 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 8.3N 24.6W AT 29/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 8.3N 24.6W AT 29/1500Z AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 8.1N 24.2W FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 8.8N 25.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 9.5N 27.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 10.3N 29.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 11.2N 31.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 12.4N 33.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 14.0N 35.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 40SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 18.4N 38.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 24.3N 40.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 8.3N 24.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression Twenty Graphics
2020-09-14 11:01:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 14 Sep 2020 09:01:05 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 14 Sep 2020 09:01:05 GMT
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Tropical Depression Twenty Forecast Discussion Number 7
2020-09-14 10:59:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 140859 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Teddy Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 500 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 Earlier ASCAT data indciated peak winds of 33 kt in the northwestern quadrant of the depression. Since then, convection has increased and so have the various satellite intensity estimates. The initial intensity is increased to 35 kt based on the ASCAT data, and satellite estimates of T3.5/35 kt from TAFB and 38 kt from UW-CIMSS SATCON. This makes Tropical Storm Teddy the earliest 19th named storm, besting the unnamed tropical storm on October 4, 2005. The initial motion estimate is 285/12 kt. A deep-layer subtropical ridge positioned over the central Atlantic should keep Teddy moving west-northwestward for the next couple of days. Thereafter, the ridge is expected to shift northward and eastward, and the strengthening cyclone is forecast to turn northwestward around the western periphery of the ridge. The latest NHC track guidance is general agreement on this developing track scenario, and the new official forecast track is similar to the previous one and lies down the middle of the guidance envelope, close to the consensus model tracks. Teddy will have several days to strengthen over very warm ocean temperatures and within a light vertical wind shear regime. The only hindrance to intensification will be intermittent intrusions of dry mid-level air that will briefly disrupt the inner-core convective structure. The NHC intensity forecast remains unchanged and brings Teddy major hurricane strength by the middle of the week. Some of the dynamical hurricane models continue to indicate that Teddy could strengthen faster than that, but I can't bear to make that forecast at this time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 13.4N 40.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 13.8N 42.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 14.3N 44.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 15.0N 46.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 15.9N 48.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 16/1800Z 16.9N 49.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 17/0600Z 18.3N 50.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 18/0600Z 21.0N 53.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 19/0600Z 23.9N 55.6W 100 KT 115 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Twenty Graphics
2020-09-14 04:51:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 14 Sep 2020 02:51:17 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 14 Sep 2020 02:51:17 GMT
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Tropical Depression Twenty Forecast Discussion Number 6
2020-09-14 04:49:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 140249 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Twenty Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 The depression continues to march west-northwestward with little change in its structure so far. Scatterometer data near 00Z revealed that the system is still elongated southwest to northeast with maximum winds near 30 kt. Convection has become a little more concentrated to the southwest of the depression's center during the past few hours, so perhaps this is a sign that it will start getting organized soon. As long as the depression remains disorganized, only minimal strengthening is likely. However, once the system comes together, all indications are that it will strengthen, perhaps significantly so. The cyclone still has several days to strengthen within a low-shear/high-SST environment, and even the global models explicitly forecast the system to become a hurricane. The NHC intensity forecast is unchanged and still brings the depression to major hurricane strength by the middle of the week. Some of the dynamical hurricane models indicate it could strengthen faster than that, so this forecast could wind up being conservative. The depression appears to be moving generally west-northwestward. A large mid-level ridge over the central Atlantic should keep the cyclone on this general heading for the next couple of days. After that, the ridge is forecast to move north and east, and the strengthening cyclone should turn toward the northwest in response. While the exact details vary from model to model, all of the dynamical track guidance supports this general scenario. The NHC forecast is based heavily on the model consensus and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 13.0N 39.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 13.5N 41.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 13.9N 43.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 14.4N 45.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 15.0N 47.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 16/1200Z 16.0N 48.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 17/0000Z 17.2N 50.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 18/0000Z 20.0N 52.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 19/0000Z 23.0N 55.0W 100 KT 115 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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