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Tropical Depression Twenty Forecast Discussion Number 2

2020-09-13 04:47:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 130247 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Twenty Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 The depression is poorly organized at this time. A large convective band wraps around the northern and western portions of the cyclone, but its center of circulation is exposed and appears to have become somewhat elongated. Recent ASCAT data and the latest TAFB Dvorak analysis indicate that the maximum winds remain near 30 kt. It will take some time for the depression to get better organized, and only slight strengthening is anticipated during the next 24 h. After that time, the cyclone's environment is expected to support intensification, and the intensity guidance is quite aggressive. While the exact timing is somewhat uncertain, it is probable that the system will become a hurricane early next week. The new NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted higher than the previous advisory beyond 48 h, but it is below or near the model consensus at all times. Little change was made to the NHC track forecast. The depression appears to be moving generally west-northwestward near 9 kt. In general, the system should continue west-northwestward for the next couple of days, with some slight fluctuations in its track possible tonight and tomorrow as the center consolidates. A weakness in the subtropical ridge is expected to develop by the middle of next week that could steer the cyclone more toward the northwest. The guidance is in very good agreement on this general scenario, though confidence in the forecast will be somewhat low until the system becomes a little better organized and strengthens. The official forecast is based primarily on the HCCA and TVCA consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 11.9N 34.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 12.3N 35.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 12.9N 37.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 14/1200Z 13.5N 40.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 15/0000Z 14.1N 42.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 15/1200Z 14.8N 44.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 16/0000Z 15.9N 46.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 17/0000Z 18.5N 49.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 18/0000Z 21.5N 51.0W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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Tropical Depression Twenty Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2

2020-09-13 04:47:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 130247 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 0300 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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Tropical Depression Twenty Forecast Advisory Number 2

2020-09-13 04:47:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 130246 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 0300 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 34.6W AT 13/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 34.6W AT 13/0300Z AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 34.2W FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 12.3N 35.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 12.9N 37.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 13.5N 40.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 14.1N 42.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 14.8N 44.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.9N 46.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 70SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 18.5N 49.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 21.5N 51.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N 34.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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Tropical Depression Twenty Forecast Discussion Number 1

2020-09-12 23:03:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 122103 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Twenty Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 500 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 The tropical wave and associated area of low pressure that NHC has been tracking since it emerged off of Africa a couple of days ago has become sufficiently organized to be designated as a tropical depression. A curved band of deep convection developed early this morning and persisted just to the west of a well-defined low level circulation throughout the day. An earlier ASCAT overpass showed that 25-30 kt winds over the northwestern portion of the circulation, which is the basis for the initial intensity being set at 30 kt. The depression has a rather large circulation, with the radius of maximum winds nearly 100 n mi from the center and the overall wind field appearing to extend outward over 300 n mi. The environment surrounding the cyclone over the next 36 h is characterized by moderate northeasterly vertical wind shear and plenty of warm water and atmospheric moisture. These factors are supportive of gradual strengthening, however, due to the large size of the system, it may take some time for it to consolidate. The NHC intensity forecast shows only slight strengthening through 36 h as the system consolidates, and that portion of the forecast is well below the intensity guidance. By early next week, the wind shear is expected to decrease to under 10 kt and a faster rate of intensification is indicated from 36-96 h in anticipation of the cyclone having a better structure to take advantage of the lower shear. After 96 h the intensity is held steady as northwesterly shear is forecast to increase while the system encounters some slightly drier air and moves over lower oceanic heat content. The NHC intensity forecast beyond 36 h starts well below most of the guidance, and trends close to the IVCN/ICON later on in the forecast period. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest at 8 kt, steered by a mid-level ridge to its north. This ridge is forecast to build westward over the next few days, which should result in a continued general west-northwest motion, perhaps at a slightly faster forward speed early next week. By the middle of next week, a weakness is forecast to develop in the ridge, partially due to interaction of Paulette and a mid- to- upper level trough over the northern Atlantic at that time, and the cyclone should turn to the northwest into this weakness. Overall, track guidance from the global and regional models is in decent agreement on this scenario, and the NHC forecast is between the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA and the TVCN multimodel consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 11.4N 33.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 11.5N 34.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 12.1N 36.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 12.8N 38.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 14/1800Z 13.3N 40.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 15/0600Z 14.0N 42.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 15/1800Z 15.0N 44.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 16/1800Z 17.7N 47.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 17/1800Z 21.0N 49.7W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto

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