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Tropical Depression Twenty Forecast Discussion Number 5
2020-09-13 22:34:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 132034 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Twenty Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 500 PM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 The depression's center is a little closer to the deep convection compared to this morning, but the overall structure has not changed significantly. Based on this morning's ASCAT pass, and recent Dvorak estimates of T2.0 from TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity remains 30 kt. The northerly shear over the system has been analyzed to have decreased since this morning (now around 10 kt), which is probably why the center is closer to the convection. The shear is forecast to decrease further, and once the depression becomes more detached from the ITCZ/monsoon trough, it is expected to go through a significant phase of strengthening as it heads west toward higher oceanic heat content and a more unstable atmosphere. As discussed this morning, the GFS-based SHIPS guidance indicates that there is a 50-50 chance that the depression will strengthen by at least 65 kt during the next 3 days, which is 10 times higher than the climatological mean. And, all three regional hurricane models (HWRF, HMON, and COAMPS-TC), as well as the HCCA aid, show the cyclone becoming a major hurricane by the end of the forecast period. As a result, the NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted upward and now explicitly shows major hurricane strength on days 4 and 5. The motion remains west-northwestward (290/10 kt), with the depression located south of a large mid-level high centered over the central Atlantic. This feature should continue driving the system westward or west-northwestward for the next 2 days. After that time, the ridge is expected to shift northward, causing the potentially strengthening hurricane to move a little slower toward the northwest. Most of the track models are clustered close together, although the HWRF remains a southern outlier and the ECMWF model is a little slower and on the right side of the envelope. The new NHC track forecast has not moved much from the previous prediction and now lies closest to the HFIP Corrected Consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 12.7N 37.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 13.2N 39.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 13.6N 42.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 14.1N 44.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 14.7N 46.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 16/0600Z 15.6N 47.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 16/1800Z 16.8N 49.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 17/1800Z 19.5N 51.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 18/1800Z 22.5N 54.0W 100 KT 115 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Depression Twenty (AT5/AL202020)
2020-09-13 22:33:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN, POTENTIALLY BECOMING A POWERFUL HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK... As of 5:00 PM AST Sun Sep 13 the center of Twenty was located near 12.7, -37.6 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Twenty Public Advisory Number 5
2020-09-13 22:33:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 132033 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twenty Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 500 PM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN, POTENTIALLY BECOMING A POWERFUL HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.7N 37.6W ABOUT 940 MI...1510 KM WSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1600 MI...2570 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty was located near latitude 12.7 North, longitude 37.6 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A motion toward the west or west-northwest across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic is expected through Tuesday, followed by a slower northwestward motion Tuesday night and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days. The depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight and then will likely strengthen to a hurricane on Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Large swells generated by Tropical Depression Twenty are expected to reach the Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of South America on Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression Twenty Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2020-09-13 22:33:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 269 FONT15 KNHC 132033 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 2100 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression Twenty Forecast Advisory Number 5
2020-09-13 22:33:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 132033 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 2100 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 37.6W AT 13/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 37.6W AT 13/2100Z AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 37.0W FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 13.2N 39.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 13.6N 42.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 14.1N 44.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 14.7N 46.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.6N 47.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 70SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.8N 49.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 80SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 19.5N 51.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 22.5N 54.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N 37.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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