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Tropical Depression Twenty Graphics
2020-09-13 17:00:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 13 Sep 2020 15:00:08 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 13 Sep 2020 15:46:24 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Depression Twenty (AT5/AL202020)
2020-09-13 16:56:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT... As of 11:00 AM AST Sun Sep 13 the center of Twenty was located near 12.3, -36.4 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Twenty Public Advisory Number 4
2020-09-13 16:56:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 131455 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twenty Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.3N 36.4W ABOUT 1680 MI...2705 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ABOUT 870 MI...1395 KM WSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty was located near latitude 12.3 North, longitude 36.4 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A motion toward the west or west-northwest across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic is expected through Tuesday, followed by a turn toward the northwest Tuesday night or Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days. The depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today or tonight, and it could strengthen to a hurricane on Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Large swells generated by Tropical Depression Twenty are expected to reach the Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of South America on Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression Twenty Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2020-09-13 16:56:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 131455 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 1500 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 36.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression Twenty Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-09-13 16:56:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 131455 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Twenty Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 Convective banding features are generally limited to the southern semicircle of the circulation with the center exposed just to the north. A recent ASCAT pass indicated that the strongest winds--up to 30 kt--were primarily located in the southerly and southwesterly monsoonal flow trailing the depression, although some stronger winds are beginning to develop just west of the center. Light-to- moderate northerly shear is currently affecting the depression, but this shear is expected to decrease during the next 24-48 hours. In addition, global model fields indicate that the cyclone should become increasingly separated from the ITCZ/monsoon trough. Steady strengthening is anticipated for much of the forecast period, and the NHC intensity forecast closely follows the HCCA aid and the IVCN intensity consensus. This new forecast is a little higher than the previous prediction, especially on days 3 through 5. There are two main points that suggest this forecast could potentially go even higher in later forecast cycles: 1. the HWRF model shows more significant strengthening at the latter part of the period, bringing the system to major hurricane strength, and 2. the SHIPS Rapid Intensification guidance indicates that there is a 50-50 chance that the system will strengthen by at least 65 kt over the next 3 days, which is 9-10 times higher than the climatological mean. The depression is moving west-northwestward (290/9 kt) to the south of a large mid-tropospheric high centered over the central subtropical Atlantic. This feature should continue to drive the cyclone westward or west-northwestward for the next 2-3 days. After that time, the mid-level high is expected to shift northward and elongate, and the potentially intensifying hurricane is likely to acquire more poleward motion, moving northwestward and a little slower on days 3-5. Most of the track models are clustered close together, except for the HWRF which has a trajectory farther to the south and west. The new NHC track forecast has been shifted a bit westward compared to the previous prediction, close to the GFS-ECMWF consensus but not as far to the left as the latest TVCA and HCCA solutions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 12.3N 36.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 12.8N 38.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 13.3N 40.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 13.7N 43.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 14.4N 45.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 16/0000Z 15.3N 46.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 16/1200Z 16.3N 48.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 17/1200Z 19.0N 51.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 18/1200Z 22.0N 53.5W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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