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Hurricane Michael Forecast Advisory Number 12

2018-10-09 16:42:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 09 2018 000 WTNT24 KNHC 091442 TCMAT4 HURRICANE MICHAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142018 1500 UTC TUE OCT 09 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE COAST OF ALABAMA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO ANCLOTE RIVER FLORIDA A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANCLOTE RIVER FLORIDA TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND FLORIDA...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY * ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO SUWANNEE RIVER FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER * SUWANEE RIVER FLORIDA TO CHASSAHOWITZKA FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CHASSAHOWITZKA TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND FLORIDA...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY * MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER * FERNANDINA BEACH FLORIDA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE... DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MICHAEL. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 86.2W AT 09/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT.......160NE 130SE 60SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 150SE 150SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 86.2W AT 09/1500Z AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 86.1W FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 26.7N 86.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...160NE 130SE 70SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 28.8N 86.3W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...160NE 140SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 30.8N 85.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 30SE 20SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 150SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 33.0N 82.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 140SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 37.5N 74.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 70SE 60SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 180SE 90SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 44.0N 56.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 50.0N 38.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.0N 86.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Summary for Hurricane Michael (AT4/AL142018)

2018-10-09 13:47:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...MICHAEL STRENGTHENING WHILE MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST... As of 7:00 AM CDT Tue Oct 9 the center of Michael was located near 24.5, -86.1 with movement NNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 968 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.

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Hurricane Michael Public Advisory Number 11A

2018-10-09 13:47:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 700 AM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018 000 WTNT34 KNHC 091147 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 11A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 700 AM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018 ...MICHAEL STRENGTHENING WHILE MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.5N 86.1W ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.58 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning for the Cuban province of Pinar del Rio has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay * Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border * Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay * Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River * Fernandina Beach Florida to South Santee River South Carolina A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should monitor the progress of Michael. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Michael was located near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 86.1 West. Michael is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A north- northwestward to northward motion is expected through tonight, followed by a northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Michael will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico through tonight. The center of Michael is expected to move inland over the Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area on Wednesday, and then move northeastward across the southeastern United States Wednesday night and Thursday. Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected, and Michael is forecast to be a major hurricane at landfall in Florida. Weakening is expected after landfall as Michael moves through the southeastern United States. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). NOAA buoy 42003 recently reported 1-minute mean winds of 47 mph (76 km/h) and a wind gust of 54 mph (87 km/h). The latest minimum central pressure reported by the NOAA aircraft is 968 mb (28.58 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Indian Pass FL to Cedar Key FL...8-12 ft Cedar Key FL to Crystal River FL...6-8 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Indian Pass FL...6-9 ft Crystal River FL to Anclote River FL...4-6 ft Anclote River to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL...2-4 ft WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area along the U.S. Gulf Coast by Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions expected by tonight or early Wednesday. Hurricane conditions will also spread well inland across portions of the Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area by tonight or early Wednesday, and are possible within the tropical storm watch area by that time. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the southeast U.S. coast Wednesday night and Thursday. RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Friday... Western Cuba...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, southeast Alabama, and southern Georgia...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall could lead to life threatening flash floods. Eastern Georgia, the Carolinas, and southern Virginia...3 to 6 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods. Florida Peninsula, eastern Mid Atlantic, southern New England coast...1-3 inches. SURF: Swells generated by Michael are beginning to affect the coasts of the eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico. These swells will spread to portions of the northwestern and western Gulf of Mexico coast during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: The threat for tornadoes will increase late tonight into Wednesday over parts of the Florida Panhandle, the northern Florida Peninsula, and southern Georgia. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

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