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Hurricane Michael Forecast Discussion Number 8
2018-10-08 16:38:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Mon Oct 08 2018 000 WTNT44 KNHC 081438 TCDAT4 Hurricane Michael Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 1100 AM EDT Mon Oct 08 2018 The satellite presentation of Michael has continued to improve overnight and this morning, with the center well embedded within an area of cold cloud tops. An eye is becoming apparent in visible imagery, and this was also confirmed by a recent SSMIS microwave overpass and the Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft. The aircraft reported a minimum pressure around 982 mb during the most recent pass through the center, and also found flight-level winds that support upgrading Michael to a a 65-kt hurricane for this advisory. Although the outflow is still somewhat restricted over the western portion of the circulation, it has been expanding in that direction. The global models suggest that the shear will relax a little more while the hurricane moves over the very warm waters of the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Now that Michael has developed an inner core, steady to rapid strengthening is predicted during the next 24 to 36 hours. The SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index and DTOPS give a 55-60 percent chance of rapid intensification during the next 24 hours. The updated NHC forecast is near the upper-end of the guidance and calls for rapid strengthening over the next 24 hours, and brings Michael to major hurricane status. After that time, most of the intensity guidance slows down the rate of intensification, perhaps due to a slight increase in southwesterly shear. Weakening is expected after landfall, but the forecast track keeps a portion of the circulation over water along the southeast U.S. coast, so Michael is predicted to remain a tropical storm through 72 hours. The system should become a powerful extratropical low off the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast in about 4 days. Reconnaissance aircraft fixes indicate that Michael is still moving a little east of due north. The hurricane should move northward or north-northwestward over the next couple of days while the storm crosses the eastern Gulf of Mexico. By 48 hours, Michael should turn northeastward ahead of a trough moving into the central United States. The cross-track spread in the guidance has decreased since yesterday, but there continue to be differences in how fast Michael moves northward over the Gulf of Mexico. The HWRF and GFS remain among the faster models, while the ECMWF is still much slower. The NHC track is along the eastern side of the guidance through 24 hours due to the recent motion of the storm, and is remains near the various consensus aids after that time. The post-tropical portion of the track and intensity forecast is based on guidance provided by the Ocean Prediction Center. Key Messages: 1. Michael is forecast to be a dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the northeastern Gulf Coast on Wednesday, and life- threatening storm surge is possible along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast regardless of the storm's exact track or intensity. Residents in the storm surge and hurricane watch areas should follow any advice given by local officials, as storm surge and hurricane warnings will likely be issued later today. 2. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash flooding from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into portions of the Carolinas through Thursday. 3. Hurricane conditions will spread over portions of western Cuba this afternoon, where a hurricane warning is now in effect. Tropical storm conditions are expected over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula and the Isle of Youth today. 4. Michael is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding over portions of western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 21.2N 84.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 22.6N 85.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 24.4N 85.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 26.4N 86.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 28.6N 86.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 11/1200Z 33.0N 82.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 96H 12/1200Z 37.8N 73.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 13/1200Z 42.8N 59.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Hurricane Michael (AT4/AL142018)
2018-10-08 16:38:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN CUBA... ...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND DANGEROUS WINDS INCREASING FOR THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST... As of 11:00 AM EDT Mon Oct 8 the center of Michael was located near 21.2, -84.9 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 982 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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Hurricane Michael Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2018-10-08 16:38:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 08 2018 000 FONT14 KNHC 081438 PWSAT4 HURRICANE MICHAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142018 1500 UTC MON OCT 08 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MICHAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) DOVER DE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 3(20) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) CAPE HENLOPEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 2(23) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 1(16) PAX RIVER NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) PAX RIVER NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 1(21) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) WALLOPS CDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 1(13) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 1(21) RICHMOND VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) RICHMOND VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) 1(22) DANVILLE VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) 1(27) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) NORFOLK NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) 1(27) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) NORFOLK VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) 1(27) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) OCEANA NAS VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 27(28) 1(29) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) ELIZABETH CTY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 18(24) X(24) GREENSBORO NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 26(30) X(30) RALEIGH NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) RALEIGH NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 29(31) X(31) ROCKY MT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) ROCKY MT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 29(31) 1(32) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 28(37) X(37) FAYETTEVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) FAYETTEVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 18(32) X(32) CHARLOTTE NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 29(32) X(32) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) CHERRY PT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 30(33) X(33) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) X(13) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 30(34) X(34) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) X(14) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 28(33) X(33) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) SURF CITY NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 28(34) X(34) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 26(35) X(35) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) X(15) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 24(41) X(41) FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) FLORENCE SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 17(44) X(44) COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) X(11) COLUMBIA SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 23(35) X(35) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) X(13) LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 23(38) X(38) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) X(15) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 19(37) X(37) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) X(13) GEORGETOWN SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 16(42) X(42) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 8(15) X(15) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 36(37) 11(48) X(48) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 5(16) X(16) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 34(35) 3(38) X(38) ATLANTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 41(42) 10(52) X(52) AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 4(16) X(16) AUGUSTA GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 43(44) 9(53) X(53) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 3(17) X(17) SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 44(49) 4(53) X(53) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 2(16) X(16) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 55(62) 4(66) X(66) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 1(27) X(27) WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 38(47) 3(50) X(50) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 2(13) X(13) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 45(51) 2(53) X(53) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 1(15) X(15) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 44(56) 1(57) X(57) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) X(15) X(15) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 26(31) 2(33) X(33) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 31(43) X(43) X(43) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 19(26) 1(27) X(27) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 14(18) X(18) X(18) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 14(18) X(18) X(18) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) 1(13) X(13) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MIAMI FL 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MARATHON FL 34 4 4( 8) 1( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) KEY WEST FL 34 5 8(13) 3(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) NAPLES FL 34 2 3( 5) 3( 8) 3(11) 4(15) X(15) X(15) FT MYERS FL 34 1 4( 5) 3( 8) 4(12) 6(18) X(18) X(18) VENICE FL 34 1 4( 5) 4( 9) 8(17) 10(27) X(27) X(27) TAMPA FL 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 12(18) 21(39) X(39) X(39) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 32(45) 25(70) X(70) X(70) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 14(21) 1(22) X(22) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 26(29) 59(88) X(88) X(88) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 52(58) 1(59) X(59) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 32(34) X(34) X(34) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 30(34) 54(88) X(88) X(88) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 50(57) 1(58) X(58) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 29(31) X(31) X(31) APALACHICOLA 34 X 1( 1) 18(19) 58(77) 19(96) 1(97) X(97) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 38(39) 37(76) 1(77) X(77) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) 15(15) 36(51) X(51) X(51) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 4( 4) 29(33) 55(88) 8(96) X(96) X(96) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 50(54) 20(74) X(74) X(74) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) 25(25) 21(46) 1(47) X(47) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) 15(15) 59(74) 21(95) X(95) X(95) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 37(37) 39(76) X(76) X(76) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 15(15) 36(51) X(51) X(51) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) 10(10) 51(61) 21(82) X(82) X(82) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) 23(23) 29(52) X(52) X(52) DESTIN EXEC AP 64 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 23(31) X(31) X(31) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 48(55) 2(57) X(57) COLUMBUS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 1(24) X(24) COLUMBUS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 1(19) X(19) BIRMINGHAM AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 34(42) 1(43) X(43) MONTGOMERY AL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) X(14) X(14) MONTGOMERY AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 24(28) 30(58) X(58) 1(59) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 19(26) 1(27) X(27) WHITING FLD FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) X(13) X(13) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 28(32) 25(57) X(57) X(57) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 16(24) 1(25) X(25) PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X 4( 4) 29(33) 52(85) 5(90) X(90) X(90) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 48(54) 9(63) X(63) X(63) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 33(34) 11(45) X(45) X(45) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 17(30) 1(31) X(31) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 9(18) X(18) X(18) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 7(13) 1(14) X(14) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 6(15) X(15) X(15) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X 4( 4) 18(22) 19(41) 4(45) X(45) X(45) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 5(10) X(10) X(10) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MERIDA MX 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 5 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 96 X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) HAVANA 34 7 3(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) ISLE OF PINES 34 36 2(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) CIENFUEGOS 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND CAYMAN 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane Michael Public Advisory Number 8
2018-10-08 16:38:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Mon Oct 08 2018 000 WTNT34 KNHC 081438 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Michael Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 1100 AM EDT Mon Oct 08 2018 ...MICHAEL BECOMES A HURRICANE AND CONTINUED STRENGTHENING EXPECTED... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN CUBA... ...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND DANGEROUS WINDS INCREASING FOR THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.2N 84.9W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM ENE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The Cuban province of Pinar del Rio A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Cuban province of the Isle of Youth * The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche, including Cozumel A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Navarre Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Alabama-Florida border to Suwannee River Florida A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Suwannee River to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay * Alabama-Florida border to the Mississippi-Alabama border A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should monitor the progress of Michael. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Michael was located near latitude 21.2 North, longitude 84.9 West. Michael is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected through Tuesday night, followed by a northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Michael will move northward near the western tip of Cuba this afternoon and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by tonight. Michael will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday and Tuesday night, and is expected to move inland over the Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area on Wednesday, and then move northeastward across the southeastern United States Wednesday night and Thursday. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Michael is forecast to become a major hurricane by Tuesday or Tuesday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The estimated minimum central pressure based on Air Force Reserve reconnaissance data is 982 mb (29.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Indian Pass to Crystal River...8-12 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass...5-8 ft Crystal River to Anclote River...4-6 ft Anclote River to Anna Maria Island including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft Navarre to Okaloosa/Walton County Line...2-4 ft WIND: Hurricane conditions will spread across the far western part of the Cuban province of Pinar del Rio this afternoon and evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected across the remainder of the warning areas in Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula later today. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area along the U.S. Gulf Coast by Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area by Tuesday night or early Wednesday. RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through the weekend... Western Cuba...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Florida Panhandle and Big Bend into the Carolinas...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall could lead to life threatening flash floods. Florida Peninsula, Florida Keys, portions of the Mid-Atlantic States, and the southern New England coast...2 to 4 inches with local amounts of 6 inches. This rainfall could lead to life- threatening flash floods. Yucatan Peninsula...1 to 2 inches. SURF: Swells generated by Michael are affecting the south coast of Cuba and the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Swells are expected to begin affecting the coast of the eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Michael Forecast Advisory Number 8
2018-10-08 16:37:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 08 2018 000 WTNT24 KNHC 081437 TCMAT4 HURRICANE MICHAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142018 1500 UTC MON OCT 08 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE... INCLUDING COZUMEL A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NAVARRE FLORIDA TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND FLORIDA... INCLUDING TAMPA BAY A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER TO SUWANNEE RIVER FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SUWANNEE RIVER TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND FLORIDA... INCLUDING TAMPA BAY * ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MICHAEL. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 84.9W AT 08/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT.......120NE 150SE 90SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..135NE 135SE 60SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 84.9W AT 08/1500Z AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 85.1W FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 22.6N 85.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 150SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 24.4N 85.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 140SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 26.4N 86.4W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 140SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 28.6N 86.1W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 140SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 33.0N 82.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 140SE 60SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 37.8N 73.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 42.8N 59.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N 84.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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