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Hurricane Michael Graphics
2018-10-09 11:13:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 09 Oct 2018 09:13:35 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 09 Oct 2018 09:28:34 GMT
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Hurricane Michael Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2018-10-09 10:57:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Tue, 09 Oct 2018 08:57:59 GMT
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Hurricane Michael Forecast Discussion Number 11
2018-10-09 10:57:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018 000 WTNT44 KNHC 090857 TCDAT4 Hurricane Michael Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 400 AM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018 Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft a few hours ago indicate that Michael's strengthening has paused, with the maximum winds near 80 kt and a central pressure near 973 mb. The aircraft also reported that the eyewall had become less organized, which may be due to some dry air entrainment and shear. The latest satellite imagery shows the convective banding becoming better defined, and the next aircraft will shortly arrive in the hurricane to provide better information on whether intensification has resumed. The initial motion is now 345/10. There is little change in either the forecast philosophy from the previous advisory, as Michael expected to remain caught between a deep-layer ridge centered off of the U.S. east coast and a highly amplitude mid-latitude trough over the U.S. Plains states and northern Mexico. This pattern should steer the hurricane north-northwestward to northward for the next 24 h or so, followed by a turn to the northeast as Michael recurves into the westerlies. Only minor tweaks have been made to the previous forecast track, with Michael expected to make landfall in the Florida Panhandle on Wednesday and cross the southeastern United States Wednesday night and Thursday. The large-scale models continue to forecast a decrease in the shear later today, and thus Michael is forecast to intensify further before landfall. The new intensity forecast follows the previous forecast in showing Michael as a category 3 hurricane at landfall. The cyclone should weaken significantly as it crosses the southeastern United States, then it should re-intensify over the western Atlantic as it undergoes extratropical transition between 72-96 h. It should be noted that the location and magnitude of peak storm surge flooding is very sensitive to small changes in the track, intensity, and structure of the hurricane. Since there is still uncertainty in all of these parameters, the official NHC storm surge forecast and watch/warning areas includes various plausible scenarios. Regardless of the eventual track and intensity of Michael, life-threatening storm surge inundation is expected along portions of the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend/Nature Coast, and the storm surge watch has been upgraded to a storm surge warning for parts of this area. The NOAA G-IV aircraft is currently conducting a synoptic surveillance mission over the Gulf of Mexico and dropsondes from that mission will be assimilated into the 1200 UTC numerical models runs. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the coasts of the Florida Panhandle, Big Bend, and Nature Coast, and a storm surge warning is in effect for these areas. Residents in these areas should follow all advice given by their local officials. 2. A hurricane warning has been issued for portions of the Florida Gulf Coast, and everyone in these areas should prepare for life-threatening winds associated with the core of Michael. Damaging winds will also extend inland across portions of the Florida Panhandle, southern Georgia, and southeast Alabama as Michael moves inland. 3. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash flooding from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into portions of Georgia and South Carolina. 4. Tropical storm conditions will continue in portions of western Cuba for a few more hours. 5. Michael is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding over portions of western Cuba during the next day or so. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 24.1N 85.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 25.7N 86.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 27.9N 86.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 29.9N 85.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 32.3N 83.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 72H 12/0600Z 36.5N 75.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 13/0600Z 42.5N 60.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 14/0600Z 49.0N 40.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Hurricane Michael (AT4/AL142018)
2018-10-09 10:57:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...MICHAEL MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST... As of 4:00 AM CDT Tue Oct 9 the center of Michael was located near 24.1, -85.9 with movement NNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 973 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
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Hurricane Michael Public Advisory Number 11
2018-10-09 10:57:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018 000 WTNT34 KNHC 090857 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Michael Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 400 AM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018 ...MICHAEL MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.1N 85.9W ABOUT 420 MI...680 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect along the southeastern coast of the United States from Fernandina Beach, Florida to South Santee River, South Carolina. The Government of Cuba has changed the Hurricane Warning for the province of Pinar del Rio to a Tropical Storm Warning and has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the Isle of Youth. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay * Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border * Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida * The Cuban province of Pinar del Rio A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay * Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River * Fernandina Beach, Florida to South Santee River, South Carolina A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should monitor the progress of Michael. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Michael was located near latitude 24.1 North, longitude 85.9 West. Michael is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A north-northwestward to northward motion is expected through tonight, followed by a northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Michael will continue to move over the southern Gulf of Mexico this morning, then move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico later today and tonight. The center of Michael is expected to move inland over the Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area on Wednesday, and then move northeastward across the southeastern United States Wednesday night and Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected, and Michael is forecast to be a major hurricane at landfall in Florida. Weakening is expected after landfall as Michael moves through the southeastern United States. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). NOAA buoy 42003 recently reported 1-minute mean winds of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a wind gust of 47 mph (76 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Indian Pass FL to Cedar Key FL...8-12 ft Cedar Key FL to Crystal River FL...6-8 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Indian Pass FL...6-9 ft Crystal River FL to Anclote River FL...4-6 ft Anclote River to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL...2-4 ft WIND: Tropical storm conditions conditions will continue over portions of the far western Cuban province of Pinar del Rio for the next few hours. Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area along the U.S. Gulf Coast by Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions expected by tonight or early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area by tonight or early Wednesday, and are possible within the tropical storm watch area by that time. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by Wednesday. RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Friday... Western Cuba...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, southeast Alabama, and southern Georgia...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall could lead to life threatening flash floods. Eastern Georgia, the Carolinas, and southern Virginia...3 to 6 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods. Florida Peninsula, eastern Mid Atlantic, southern New England coast...1-3 inches. SURF: Swells generated by Michael are affecting the south coast of Cuba and the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Swells are expected to begin affecting the coast of the eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: The threat for tornadoes will increase late tonight into Wednesday over parts of the Florida Panhandle, the northern Florida Peninsula, and southern Georgia. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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