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Hurricane Michael Public Advisory Number 10
2018-10-09 04:55:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 08 2018 000 WTNT34 KNHC 090255 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Michael Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 08 2018 ...MICHAEL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.2N 85.3W ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the northeastern Yucatan peninsula and Cozumel. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay * Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida * The Cuban province of Pinar del Rio A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border * Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida * The Cuban province of the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay * Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should monitor the progress of Michael. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane Michael was located by NOAA and Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 23.2 North, longitude 85.3 West. Michael is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northward to north-northwestward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected through Tuesday night, followed by a northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Michael will continue to move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight, then move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday and Tuesday night. The center of Michael is expected to move inland over the Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area on Wednesday, and then move northeastward across the southeastern United States Wednesday night and Thursday. Reports from the two reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Michael is expected to become a major hurricane by Tuesday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The minimum central pressure recently measured by the two aircraft was 970 mb (28.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Indian Pass FL to Cedar Key FL...8-12 ft Cedar Key FL to Crystal River FL...6-8 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Indian Pass FL...6-9 ft Crystal River FL to Anclote River FL...4-6 ft Anclote River to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL...2-4 ft WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue over portions of the far western Cuban province of Pinar del Rio through this evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected across the remainder of the warning areas in Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula through tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area along the U.S. Gulf Coast by Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions expected by Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area by Tuesday night or early Wednesday, and are possible within the tropical storm watch area by that time. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by Wednesday. RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Friday... Western Cuba...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, southeast Alabama, Georgia and South Carolina... 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall could lead to life threatening flash floods. Florida Peninsula, Florida Keys, North Carolina, portions of the Mid-Atlantic States, and the southern New England coast...2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods. Yucatan Peninsula...Additional rainfall less than 1 inch. SURF: Swells generated by Michael are affecting the south coast of Cuba and the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Swells are expected to begin affecting the coast of the eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Michael Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2018-10-09 04:55:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 09 2018 000 FONT14 KNHC 090255 PWSAT4 HURRICANE MICHAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142018 0300 UTC TUE OCT 09 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MICHAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 34(34) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 24(33) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 3(14) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) X(18) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) X(13) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) X(12) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 14(23) X(23) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 19(32) X(32) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 8(20) X(20) PAX RIVER NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 14(27) X(27) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) WALLOPS CDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 2(13) X(13) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 6(26) X(26) RICHMOND VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 1(24) X(24) DANVILLE VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 14(42) X(42) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) NORFOLK NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 13(43) X(43) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) X(12) NORFOLK VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 15(45) X(45) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) X(12) OCEANA NAS VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 37(37) 12(49) X(49) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 5(19) X(19) ELIZABETH CTY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) X(26) X(26) GREENSBORO NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 42(42) 1(43) X(43) RALEIGH NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) RALEIGH NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 46(46) 3(49) X(49) ROCKY MT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) X(14) ROCKY MT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 39(39) 9(48) X(48) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 6(24) X(24) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 3(15) X(15) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 52(53) 1(54) X(54) FAYETTEVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) X(18) X(18) FAYETTEVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 29(32) X(32) X(32) CHARLOTTE NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 48(48) 4(52) X(52) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 1(23) X(23) CHERRY PT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 44(44) 3(47) X(47) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 2(24) X(24) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 2(15) X(15) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 46(46) 4(50) X(50) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 2(25) X(25) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 1(15) X(15) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 50(50) 1(51) X(51) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) X(23) X(23) SURF CITY NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 53(53) 1(54) X(54) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 1(23) X(23) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 48(49) 1(50) X(50) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) X(22) X(22) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 56(59) 1(60) X(60) FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) X(20) X(20) FLORENCE SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 50(58) X(58) X(58) COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) X(17) X(17) COLUMBIA SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 54(55) X(55) X(55) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) X(21) X(21) LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 55(56) X(56) X(56) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) X(23) X(23) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 50(54) X(54) X(54) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) X(19) X(19) GEORGETOWN SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 48(56) X(56) X(56) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) X(18) X(18) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) 46(60) X(60) X(60) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) X(19) X(19) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 7(26) X(26) X(26) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 48(64) X(64) X(64) AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) X(21) X(21) AUGUSTA GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 40(62) X(62) X(62) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) X(18) X(18) SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 29(34) 14(48) X(48) X(48) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 46(53) 17(70) X(70) X(70) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 10(18) X(18) X(18) WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) 11(11) 22(33) 11(44) X(44) X(44) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 32(38) 9(47) X(47) X(47) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X 4( 4) 10(14) 35(49) 2(51) X(51) X(51) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 15(21) 4(25) X(25) X(25) THE VILLAGES 34 X 4( 4) 6(10) 23(33) 2(35) X(35) X(35) ORLANDO FL 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 12(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) PATRICK AFB 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) FT PIERCE FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MARATHON FL 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) KEY WEST FL 34 5 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NAPLES FL 34 3 3( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) FT MYERS FL 34 3 3( 6) 3( 9) 3(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) VENICE FL 34 3 4( 7) 5(12) 8(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) TAMPA FL 34 3 3( 6) 8(14) 17(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) CEDAR KEY FL 34 1 11(12) 42(54) 12(66) 1(67) X(67) X(67) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X 4( 4) 53(57) 38(95) 1(96) X(96) X(96) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 59(66) 1(67) X(67) X(67) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 32(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34) ST MARKS FL 34 X 5( 5) 59(64) 30(94) 1(95) X(95) X(95) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 51(60) 1(61) X(61) X(61) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 25(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) APALACHICOLA 34 1 23(24) 72(96) 3(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) 69(69) 19(88) 1(89) X(89) X(89) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) 34(34) 31(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) GFMX 290N 850W 34 3 45(48) 50(98) 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X 3( 3) 76(79) 5(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) 45(45) 6(51) 1(52) X(52) X(52) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 16(16) 78(94) 5(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) 70(70) 23(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) 37(37) 37(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X 9( 9) 73(82) 8(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) 37(37) 18(55) 1(56) X(56) X(56) DESTIN EXEC AP 64 X X( X) 12(12) 15(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 47(53) 3(56) X(56) X(56) COLUMBUS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) COLUMBUS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 28(35) 2(37) X(37) X(37) MONTGOMERY AL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WHITING FLD FL 34 X 4( 4) 37(41) 20(61) 1(62) X(62) X(62) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) WHITING FLD FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PENSACOLA FL 34 X 4( 4) 40(44) 16(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 3 42(45) 50(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X 4( 4) 62(66) 1(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) 35(35) 1(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) MOBILE AL 34 X 3( 3) 7(10) 11(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GULFPORT MS 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) STENNIS MS 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BURAS LA 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GFMX 280N 890W 34 3 13(16) 9(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COZUMEL MX 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HAVANA 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLE OF PINES 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane Michael Forecast Advisory Number 10
2018-10-09 04:54:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 09 2018 000 WTNT24 KNHC 090254 TCMAT4 HURRICANE MICHAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142018 0300 UTC TUE OCT 09 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND COZUMEL. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO ANCLOTE RIVER FLORIDA A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANCLOTE RIVER FLORIDA TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND FLORIDA... INCLUDING TAMPA BAY * ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO SUWANNEE RIVER FLORIDA * THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER * SUWANEE RIVER FLORIDA TO CHASSAHOWITZKA FLORIDA * THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CHASSAHOWITZKA TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND FLORIDA... INCLUDING TAMPA BAY * MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE... DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MICHAEL. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 85.3W AT 09/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......150NE 150SE 80SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 90SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 85.3W AT 09/0300Z AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 85.2W FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 24.7N 85.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 26.8N 86.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 29.1N 85.9W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 31.4N 84.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 140SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 35.9N 77.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 140SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 41.5N 63.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 47.8N 46.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.2N 85.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Summary for Hurricane Michael (AT4/AL142018)
2018-10-09 01:55:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS MICHAEL A LITTLE STRONGER... ...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST... As of 7:00 PM CDT Mon Oct 8 the center of Michael was located near 22.7, -85.2 with movement N at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 970 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
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Hurricane Michael Public Advisory Number 9A
2018-10-09 01:55:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Mon Oct 08 2018 000 WTNT34 KNHC 082355 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 9A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 700 PM CDT Mon Oct 08 2018 ...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS MICHAEL A LITTLE STRONGER... ...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.7N 85.2W ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM NNW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA ABOUT 485 MI...785 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay * Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida * The Cuban province of Pinar del Rio A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border * Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida * The Cuban province of the Isle of Youth * The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche, including Cozumel A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay * Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should monitor the progress of Michael. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane Michael was located by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 85.2 West. Michael is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northward to north-northwestward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected through Tuesday night, followed by a northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Michael will move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight, then move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday and Tuesday night. The center of Michael is expected to move inland over the Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area on Wednesday, and then move northeastward across the southeastern United States Wednesday night and Thursday. Reports from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Michael is forecast to become a major hurricane by Tuesday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The minimum central pressure recently measured by the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft was 970 mb (28.64 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Indian Pass FL to Cedar Key FL...8-12 ft Cedar Key FL to Crystal River FL...6-8 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Indian Pass FL...6-9 ft Crystal River FL to Anclote River FL...4-6 ft Anclote River to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL...2-4 ft WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue over portions of the far western Cuban province of Pinar del Rio through this evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected across the remainder of the warning areas in Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula through tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area along the U.S. Gulf Coast by Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions expected by Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area by Tuesday night or early Wednesday, and are possible within the tropical storm watch area by that time. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by Wednesday. RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Friday... Western Cuba...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Florida Panhandle and Big Bend across Georgia into South Carolina... 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall could lead to life threatening flash floods. Florida Peninsula, Florida Keys, North Carolina, portions of the Mid-Atlantic States, and the southern New England coast...2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods. Yucatan Peninsula...1 to 2 inches. SURF: Swells generated by Michael are affecting the south coast of Cuba and the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Swells are expected to begin affecting the coast of the eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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