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Hurricane Paulette Public Advisory Number 38
2020-09-16 10:29:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 160829 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Paulette Advisory Number 38 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 500 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 ...PAULETTE EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...41.9N 49.1W ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Paulette was located near latitude 41.9 North, longitude 49.1 West. Paulette is moving toward the east-northeast near 29 mph (46 km/h), and this general motion is expected into Thursday. Afterward, Paulette is forecast to slow down and turn toward the south-southeast and south late Thursday and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Although gradual weakening is forecast, Paulette is expected to become a powerful extratropical cyclone later today. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Paulette will continue to affect the Atlantic Canada, Bermuda, the Bahamas, and portions of the east coast of the United States through tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Vicky Public Advisory Number 9
2020-09-16 10:24:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 160824 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Vicky Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020 500 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 ...VICKY EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.6N 33.9W ABOUT 755 MI...1215 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vicky was located near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 33.9 West. Vicky is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A westward motion is expected to begin later today, followed by a west-southwestward motion by late Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast over the next few days, and the system could become a remnant low on Thursday or Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Karina Public Advisory Number 14
2020-09-16 10:22:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Wed Sep 16 2020 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 160822 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karina Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020 200 AM PDT Wed Sep 16 2020 ...KARINA WEAKENING... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A DAY OR SO... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.7N 123.7W ABOUT 885 MI...1425 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karina was located near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 123.7 West. Karina is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today. A slower westward motion is expected on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Karina is expected to become a remnant low by tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane Teddy Public Advisory Number 15
2020-09-16 08:45:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 160645 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Teddy Special Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 300 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 ...TEDDY RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A 90-MPH HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 300 AM AST...0700 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.5N 48.7W ABOUT 840 MI...1350 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM AST (0700 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Teddy was located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 48.7 West. Teddy is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue into the weekend and remain well northeast of the Lesser Antilles. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Teddy could become a major hurricane later today or Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are expected to reach the Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of South America today should spread westward to the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda by Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Sally Public Advisory Number 20
2020-09-16 08:41:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 130 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 160641 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Sally Special Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 130 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 ...SALLY CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS HURRICANE CONDITIONS SPREAD ONSHORE THE GULF COAST FROM PENSACOLA BEACH FLORIDA WESTWARD TO DAUPHIN ISLAND ALABAMA... ...HISTORIC LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING LIKELY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 130 AM CDT...0630 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.9N 87.8W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SSE OF MOBILE ALABAMA ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SW OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Mouth of the Pearl River. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama border to the Walton/Bay County Line Florida * Mobile Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * East of Bay St. Louis Mississippi to the Okaloosa/Walton County line Florida A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of the Okaloosa/Walton County line Florida to Indian Pass Florida * Bay St. Louis Mississippi westward to Grand Isle Louisiana A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 130 AM CDT (0630 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sally was located an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 29.9 North, longitude 87.8 West. Sally is moving toward the north-northeast near 2 mph (4 km/h). A north-northeastward to northeastward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected later today and tonight, followed by a faster northeastward motion on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will approach the northern Gulf Coast this morning, and make landfall in the hurricane warning area later today. Sally is then expected to move inland across southeastern Alabama tonight. Recent data from An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and the Mobile Alabama Doppler weather radar indicate that Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Some further strengthening is possible before Sally makes landfall. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall occurs. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). A sustained wind of 81 mph (130 km/h) with a gust to 110 mph (178 km/h) was recently reported in Sally's northern eyewall by NOAA buoy 42012, located about 50 miles southeast of Mobile, Alabama. A sustained wind of 72 mph (117 km/h) and a gust to 90 mph (144 km/h) were recently measured by the NOAA C-MAN observing station on Dauphin Island, Alabama. The minimum central pressure recently reported by the Hurricane Hunters was 968 mb (28.58 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Sally is forecast to produce 10 to 20 inches of rainfall with isolated amounts of 30 inches along and just inland of the central Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle west of the Apalachicola River to the Alabama/Mississippi border. Historic, life-threatening flash flooding is likely. In addition, this rainfall will lead to widespread moderate to major flooding on area rivers. Sally is forecast to turn inland today and track across the Southeast producing rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches, across portions of southeastern Mississippi, southern and central Alabama, central and northern Georgia, and the western Carolinas. Significant flash and urban flooding is likely, as well as widespread minor to moderate flooding on some rivers. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Dauphin Island AL to Okaloosa/Walton County FL Line...4-7 ft Pensacola Bay and Choctawhatchee Bay FL...4-7 ft Mobile Bay...3-5 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Walton/Bay County line FL...2-4 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to MS/AL Border including Lakes Pontchartrain, Maurepas and Borgne...1-3 ft MS/AL Border to Dauphin Island AL...2-4 ft Walton/Bay County line to Chassahowitzka FL including Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are spreading onshore within the hurricane warning area in Florida and Alabama. Tropical storm conditions will continue in portions of the warning areas through tonight. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes may occur through today across portions of the Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama. SURF: Swells from Sally will continue to affect the coast from the Florida Big Bend westward to southeastern Louisiana during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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