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Hurricane Sally Public Advisory Number 19
2020-09-16 04:55:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 160255 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Sally Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020 ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REACH PORTIONS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY... ...HISTORIC LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING LIKELY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.8N 87.8W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSE OF MOBILE ALABAMA ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SW OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Warning has been extended east of the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to the Walton/Bay County Line Florida. The Hurricane Warning has been extended east of Navarre Florida to the Okaloosa/Walton County line Florida. The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued between the Mouth of the Pearl River and the Mississippi/Alabama border. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama border to the Walton/Bay County Line Florida * Mobile Bay * Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Mouth of the Pearl River A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * East of Bay St. Louis Mississippi to the Okaloosa/Walton County line Florida A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of the Okaloosa/Walton County line Florida to Indian Pass Florida * Bay St. Louis Mississippi westward to Grand Isle Louisiana A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sally was located near latitude 29.8 North, longitude 87.8 West. Sally is moving toward the north-northeast near 2 mph (4 km/h). A north-northeastward to northeastward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected on Wednesday and Wednesday night, followed by a faster northeastward motion on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will approach the northern Gulf Coast tonight, and make landfall in the hurricane warning area early Wednesday. Sally is expected to move inland across southeastern Alabama Wednesday night and Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible before landfall, and Sally is expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it moves onshore along the north-central Gulf Coast. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunters is 972 mb (28.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Sally is forecast to produce 10 to 20 inches of rainfall with isolated amounts of 30 inches along and just inland of the central Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle west of the Apalachicola River to the Alabama/Mississippi border. Historic, life-threatening flash flooding is likely. In addition, this rainfall will lead to widespread moderate to major flooding on area rivers. Sally is forecast to turn inland Wednesday and track across the Southeast producing rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches, across portions of southeastern Mississippi, southern and central Alabama, central and northern Georgia, and the western Carolinas. Significant flash and urban flooding is likely, as well as widespread minor to moderate flooding on some rivers. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Dauphin Island AL to Okaloosa/Walton County FL Line...4-6 ft Pensacola Bay and Choctawhatchee Bay FL...4-6 ft Mobile Bay...3-5 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Walton/Bay County line FL...2-4 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to Mouth of the Pearl River including Lakes Pontchartrain, Maurepas and Borgne...2-4 ft MS/AL Border to Dauphin Island AL...2-4 ft Walton/Bay County line to Chassahowitzka FL including Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft Mouth of the Pearl River to MS/AL Border...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area later tonight. Tropical storm conditions are already occurring in portions of the warning areas, and will continue through Wednesday night. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes may occur through Wednesday across portions of the Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama. SURF: Swells from Sally will continue to affect the coast from the Florida Big Bend westward to southeastern Louisiana during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Karina Public Advisory Number 13
2020-09-16 04:35:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Sep 15 2020 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 160235 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karina Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020 Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI 800 PM PDT Tue Sep 15 2020 ...KARINA HANGING ON BUT WILL SOON WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.3N 123.0W ABOUT 845 MI...1360 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karina was located near latitude 21.3 North, longitude 123.0 West. Karina is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue into Wednesday. Some slowing in forward speed and a turn toward the west and southwest is expected thereafter. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening should begin tonight, and Karina is forecast to become a remnant low in two or three days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Birchard
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Hurricane Paulette Public Advisory Number 37
2020-09-16 04:34:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 160234 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Paulette Advisory Number 37 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 ...PAULETTE EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN A DAY OR SO... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...40.7N 52.4W ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM S OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Paulette was located near latitude 40.7 North, longitude 52.4 West. Paulette is moving toward the east-northeast near 28 mph (44 km/h), and this general motion is expected into Thursday. Afterward, Paulette is forecast to slow down and turn toward the south-southeast and south late Thursday and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Although gradual weakening is forecast, Paulette is expected to become a powerful extratropical cyclone by Wednesday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Paulette will continue to affect the Atlantic Canada, Bermuda, the Bahamas, and portions of the east coast of the United States through Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Vicky Public Advisory Number 8
2020-09-16 04:30:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 160230 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Vicky Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 ...VICKY REFUSES TO WEAKEN DESPITE THE SHEAR... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.6N 33.1W ABOUT 710 MI...1140 KM NW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vicky was located near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 33.1 West. Vicky is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general motion is expected overnight, followed by a westward motion starting late Wednesday, and a west-southwestward motion by late Thursday. Satellite-derived winds indicate that xaximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is still forecast over the next few days, and the system could become a remannt low on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Sally Public Advisory Number 18A
2020-09-16 01:54:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 152354 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Sally Intermediate Advisory Number 18A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 700 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020 ...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ONSHORE ALONG THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...HISTORIC LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING LIKELY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.6N 88.0W ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM S OF MOBILE ALABAMA ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM SW OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida * Mobile Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * East of Bay St. Louis Mississippi to Navarre Florida A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Navarre Florida to Indian Pass Florida * Bay St. Louis Mississippi westward to Grand Isle Louisiana A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sally was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and NOAA Doppler radar near latitude 29.6 North, longitude 88.0 West. Sally is moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow northward motion is expected tonight, followed by a slow north-northeastward to northeastward motion on Wednesday and Wednesday night. A slightly faster northeastward motion is expected on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will approach the northern Gulf Coast tonight, and make landfall in the hurricane warning area late tonight or Wednesday. Sally is expected to move inland across southeastern Alabama Wednesday night and Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast until landfall occurs, and Sally is expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it moves onshore along the north-central Gulf Coast. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). A sustained wind of 55 mph (89 km/h) and a gust to 70 mph (113 km/h) were recently reported at Petit Bois Island, Mississippi. A sustained wind of 54 mph (87 km/h) and a gust to 66 mph (106 km/h) were recently reported on Dauphin Island, Alabama. The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 975 mb (28.79 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Sally is forecast to produce 10 to 20 inches of rainfall with isolated amounts of 30 inches along and just inland of the central Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle west of the Apalachicola River to far southeastern Mississippi. Historic life-threatening flash flooding is likely. In addition, this rainfall will lead to widespread moderate to major flooding on area rivers. Sally is forecast to turn inland Wednesday and track across the Southeast producing rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches, across portions of southeastern Mississippi, southern and central Alabama, central and northern Georgia, and the western Carolinas. Significant flash and urban flooding is likely, as well as widespread minor to moderate flooding on some rivers. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Dauphin Island, AL to AL/FL Border including Mobile Bay...4-6 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to Mouth of the Pearl River including Lake Borgne...3-5 ft MS/AL Border to Dauphin Island, AL...3-5 ft AL/FL Border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL including Pensacola Bay and Choctawhatchee Bay...3-5 ft Mouth of the Pearl River to MS/AL Border...2-4 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL including Saint Andrews Bay...1-3 ft Grand Isle, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area later this evening. Tropical storm conditions are already occurring in portions of the warning areas, and will continue through Wednesday night. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes may occur through Wednesday across portions of the Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama. SURF: Swells from Sally will continue to affect the coast from the Florida Big Bend westward to southeastern Louisiana during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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