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Hurricane Sally Public Advisory Number 14A
2020-09-15 01:50:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 142350 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Sally Intermediate Advisory Number 14A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 700 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 ...OUTER RAIN BANDS OF SALLY MOVING ONSHORE IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING LIKELY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STARTING LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.8N 87.5W ABOUT 100 MI...155 KM E OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SE OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...8 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Port Fourchon Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne * Mobile Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Morgan City Louisiana to the Navarre Florida * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of of Navarre Florida to Indian Pass Florida A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sally was located near latitude 28.8 North, longitude 87.5 West. Sally is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (8 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through Tuesday morning. A northward turn is likely by Tuesday afternoon, and a slow north-northeastward to northeastward motion is expected Tuesday night through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will move near the coast of southeastern Louisiana tonight and Tuesday, and make landfall in the hurricane warning area Tuesday night or Wednesday. Data from reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast tonight and early Tuesday and Sally is expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it moves onshore along the north-central Gulf coast. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). A buoy offshore of Orange Beach, Alabama, recently reported sustained winds of 49 mph (79 km/h) and a wind gust of 60 mph (97 km/h). The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force Reserve and NOAA reconnaissance aircraft is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake Borgne...7-11 ft Ocean Springs, MS to Dauphin Island, AL including Mobile Bay...6-9 ft Dauphin Island, AL to AL/FL Border...4-7 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...2-4 ft AL/FL Border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL including Pensacola Bay and Choctawhatchee Bay...2-4 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL including Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft Burns Point, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...1-2 ft Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher than those shown above. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area later tonight and Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions expected to begin within the warning area during the next few hours. RAINFALL: Sally is expected to be a slow moving system as it approaches land, producing 8 to 16 inches of rainfall with isolated amounts of 24 inches over portions of the central Gulf Coast from the western Florida Panhandle to far southeast Louisiana through the middle of the week. Life-threatening flash flooding is likely. In addition, this rainfall will likely lead to widespread minor to isolated major flooding on area rivers. Sally is forecast to move farther inland early Wednesday and track across the Southeast producing rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches, across portions of eastern Mississippi, central Alabama, northern Georgia and the western Carolinas. Significant flash and urban flooding is likely, as well as widespread minor to moderate flooding on some rivers. Outer bands of Sally are expected to produce additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches across the Florida peninsula today. This rainfall may produce flash and urban flooding and prolong high flows and ongoing minor flooding on rivers across central Florida. TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible through tonight over coastal areas of the Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama. The threat of tornadoes is expected to increase on Tuesday in these areas, as well as over parts of southern Mississippi and extreme southeast Louisiana. SURF: Swells from Sally will continue to affect the coast from the Florida Big Bend westward to southeastern Louisiana during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Karina Public Advisory Number 8
2020-09-14 22:48:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 142048 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karina Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020 Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI 200 PM PDT Mon Sep 14 2020 ...KARINA AT PEAK INTENSITY OVER THE OPEN EAST PACIFIC WATERS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.5N 118.8W ABOUT 650 MI...1045 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karina was located near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 118.8 West. Karina is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected over the next 24 hours, with gradual weakening expected thereafter. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Kodama
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Hurricane Sally Public Advisory Number 14
2020-09-14 22:43:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 142043 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Sally Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 400 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 ...SALLY A LITTLE STRONGER, ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING EXPECTED TONIGHT... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING LIKELY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STARTING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.8N 87.4W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SE OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Warning has been extended eastward along the coast of the Florida panhandle to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line. The Hurricane Warning has been extended eastward along the coast of the Florida Panhandle to Navarre. The Tropical Storm Warning west of Morgan City Louisiana has been discontinued. The Tropical Storm Watch along the coast of the Florida Panhandle has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Port Fourchon Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne * Mobile Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Morgan City Louisiana to the Navarre Florida * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of of Navarre Florida to Indian Pass Florida A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sally was located near latitude 28.8 North, longitude 87.4 West. Sally is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A northward turn is expected by Tuesday, and a slow north-northeastward to northeastward motion is expected Tuesday night through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will move near the coast of southeastern Louisiana tonight and Tuesday, and make landfall in the hurricane warning area on late Tuesday or Wednesday. Data from reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast tonight and early Tuesday and Sally is expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it moves onshore along the north-central Gulf coast. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The latest minimum central pressure estimated from data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake Borgne...7-11 ft Ocean Springs, MS to Dauphin Island, AL including Mobile Bay...6-9 ft Dauphin Island, AL to AL/FL Border...4-7 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...2-4 ft AL/FL Border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL including Pensacola Bay and Choctawhatchee Bay...2-4 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL including Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft Burns Point, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...1-2 ft Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher than those shown above. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area late tonight and Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions expected to begin within the warning area this evening. RAINFALL: Sally is expected to be a slow moving system as it approaches land, producing 8 to 16 inches of rainfall with isolated amounts of 24 inches over portions of the central Gulf Coast from the western Florida Panhandle to far southeast Louisiana through the middle of the week. Life-threatening flash flooding is likely. In addition, this rainfall will likely lead to widespread minor to isolated major flooding on area rivers. Sally is forecast to move farther inland early Wednesday and track across the Southeast producing rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches, across portions of eastern Mississippi, central Alabama, northern Georgia and the western Carolinas. Significant flash and urban flooding is likely, as well as widespread minor to moderate flooding on some rivers. Outer bands of Sally are expected to produce additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches across the Florida peninsula today. This rainfall may produce flash and urban flooding and prolong high flows and ongoing minor flooding on rivers across central Florida. TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible through tonight over coastal areas of the Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama. The threat of tornadoes is expected to increase on Tuesday in these areas, as well as over parts of southern Mississippi and extreme southeast Louisiana. SURF: Swells from Sally will continue to affect areas from the west coast of the Florida peninsula westward through the coast of southeastern Louisiana during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Paulette Public Advisory Number 32
2020-09-14 22:40:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 142040 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Paulette Advisory Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 500 PM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 ...PAULETTE MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM BERMUDA... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING DISCONTINUED FOR BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.5N 63.8W ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM NNE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Bermuda Weather Service has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Bermuda. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Paulette was located near latitude 34.5 North, longitude 63.8 West. Paulette is moving toward the north-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn toward the northeast is expected later tonight followed by a turn toward the east-northeast and an increase in forward speed Tuesday afternonn through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is likely through Tuesday night as Paulette accelerates northeastward to east-northeastward. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin on Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Gusty winds on Bermuda should persist into the evening hours. STORM SURGE: Storm surge and associated coastal flooding and rough surf conditions on Bermuda should begin to subside this evening. RAIN: Paulette will bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda through this evening, with rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches expected. SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Vicky Public Advisory Number 3
2020-09-14 22:34:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM CVT Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 142034 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Vicky Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020 800 PM CVT Mon Sep 14 2020 ...VICKY EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT... SUMMARY OF 800 PM CVT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.3N 29.5W ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM CVT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vicky was located near latitude 19.3 North, longitude 29.5 West. Vicky is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A continued northwestward motion is expected through early Tuesday, followed by a gradual turn toward the west by Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is anticipated, and Vicky is forecast to become a remnant low during the next day or two. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM CVT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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