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Hurricane Sally Public Advisory Number 15
2020-09-15 04:44:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 150244 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Sally Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 1000 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 ...OUTER RAIN BANDS MOVING ONSHORE IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING LIKELY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STARTING LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.9N 87.6W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM E OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SE OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Warning west of Grand Isle to Morgan City, Louisiana, has been downgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Port Fourchon Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne * Mobile Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Grand Isle Louisiana to the Navarre Florida * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of of Navarre Florida to Indian Pass Florida * West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sally was located near latitude 28.9 North, longitude 87.6 West. Sally is moving toward the west-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through Tuesday morning. A northward turn is likely by Tuesday afternoon, and a slow north-northeastward to northeastward motion is expected Tuesday night through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will move near the coast of southeastern Louisiana tonight and Tuesday, and make landfall in the hurricane warning area Tuesday night or Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast early Tuesday and Sally is expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it moves onshore along the north-central Gulf coast. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). A buoy south of Dauphin Island, Alabama, recently reported sustained winds of 61 mph (98 km/h) and a wind gust of 69 mph (111 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Mississippi River to Dauphin Island including Lake Borgne...6-9 ft Ocean Springs, MS to Dauphin Island, AL including Mobile Bay...6-9 ft Dauphin Island, AL to AL/FL Border...4-7 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...2-4 ft AL/FL Border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL including Pensacola Bay and Choctawhatchee Bay...2-4 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL including Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft Burns Point, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...1-2 ft Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher than those shown above. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area later tonight and Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions expected to begin within the warning area during the next few hours. RAINFALL: Sally is expected to be a slow moving system as it approaches land, producing 8 to 16 inches of rainfall with isolated amounts of 24 inches over portions of the central Gulf Coast from the western Florida Panhandle to far southeastern Mississippi through the middle of the week. Life-threatening flash flooding is likely. In addition, this rainfall will likely lead to widespread minor to isolated major flooding on area rivers. Sally is forecast to turn inland early Wednesday and track across the Southeast producing rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches, across portions of eastern Mississippi, central Alabama, northern Georgia, southeastern Tennessee, and the western Carolinas. Significant flash and urban flooding is likely, as well as widespread minor to moderate flooding on some rivers. Outer bands of Sally could produce additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches across the Florida peninsula through tonight. This rainfall may produce flash and urban flooding and prolong high flows and ongoing minor flooding on rivers across central Florida. TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible late tonight through early Tuesday in coastal areas of the Florida Panhandle and Alabama. The threat for tornadoes should increase and slowly spread inland during the day on Tuesday. SURF: Swells from Sally will continue to affect the coast from the Florida Big Bend westward to southeastern Louisiana during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Karina Public Advisory Number 9
2020-09-15 04:37:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 150237 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karina Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020 Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI 800 PM PDT Mon Sep 14 2020 ...KARINA A LITTLE STRONGER THIS EVENING... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.1N 119.8W ABOUT 690 MI...1110 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karina was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 119.8 West. Karina is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected over the next 24 hours, with gradual weakening thereafter. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Kodama
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Hurricane Paulette Public Advisory Number 33
2020-09-15 04:35:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 150235 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Paulette Advisory Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 ...PAULETTE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.7N 62.3W ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM NNE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Paulette was located near latitude 35.7 North, longitude 62.3 West. Paulette is moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h). A faster motion toward the northeast or east-northeast is expected for the next couple of days. Paulette is then forecast to slow down and turn eastward by late Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is possible Tuesday and early Wednesday. Rapid weakening is forecast to begin by late Wednesday and will likely continue through the rest of the week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Paulette will continue to affect portions of Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, and the east coast of the United States through Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Vicky Public Advisory Number 4
2020-09-15 04:32:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM CVT Tue Sep 15 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 150232 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Vicky Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020 200 AM CVT Tue Sep 15 2020 ...VICKY A LITTLE STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED BUT STILL EXPECTED TO WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 200 AM CVT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.5N 29.9W ABOUT 455 MI...735 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM CVT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vicky was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 29.9 West. Vicky is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a turn toward the west-northwest is expected within the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the west. Satellite-derived wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast due to strong upper-level winds during the next 48 hours, and Vicky is likely to degenerate into remnant low by Wednesday Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM CVT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Teddy Public Advisory Number 10
2020-09-15 04:32:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 150232 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Teddy Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 ...TEDDY FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.2N 45.0W ABOUT 1100 MI...1770 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Teddy was located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 45.0 West. Teddy is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A west-northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected overnight through Tuesday night, followed by a northwestward motion Wednesday and Thursday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast for the next several days. Teddy is expected to become a hurricane Tuesday and could reach major hurricane strength on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Large swells generated by Tropical Storm Teddy are expected to reach the Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of South America on Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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