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Tropical Storm Nicholas Public Advisory Number 2A
2021-09-13 01:58:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021 000 WTNT34 KNHC 122358 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nicholas Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021 700 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021 ...NICHOLAS MOVING LITTLE AT THIS TIME... ...EXPECTED TO HEAD FOR THE TEXAS COAST LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.5N 95.5W ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Port Aransas to San Luis Pass Texas * Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Port Aransas to Sargent Texas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Rio Grande to Freeport Texas * Barra el Mezquital to the U.S./Mexico border A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Mouth of the Rio Grande to High Island Texas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Port Aransas to High Island Texas A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the upper Texas coast should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicholas was located near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 95.5 West. Nicholas has been meandering or drifting northward near 2 mph (4 km/h) over the past couple of hours, but a north-northwestward motion near 12 mph (19 km/h) is expected to resume later tonight and early monday. A northward or north-northeastward motion is forecast by late Monday or Monday night. On the forecast track, the center of Nicholas will pass near or just offshore the coasts of northeastern Mexico and South Texas on Monday, and move onshore along the coast of south or central Texas coast Monday night or early Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast until Nicholas reaches the northwest Gulf coast Monday night or early Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nicholas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages RAINFALL: Nicholas is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 8 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches, across portions of the middle and upper Texas coastal areas tonight through the middle of the week. Across the rest of coastal Texas into southwest Louisiana rainfall of 5 to 10 inches is expected. This rainfall may produce areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, especially in highly urbanized metropolitan areas. Additionally, there is the potential for isolated minor to moderate river flooding. Over the northeastern portions of the Mexican state of Tamaulipas rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches can be expected tonight into Monday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Port O'Connor to San Luis Pass TX including Matagorda Bay...3-5 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port O'Connor, TX...2-4 ft San Luis Pass to High Island, TX including Galveston Bay...2-4 ft Baffin Bay, Corpus Christi Bay, Aransas Bay and San Antonio Bay...2-4 ft High Island, TX to Intracoastal City including Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake..1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area in northeastern Mexico and southern Texas Monday morning, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. These conditions will spread northward within the warning area through Monday night. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area Monday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Monday night or early Tuesday. TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible Monday into Monday night across the middle and lower Texas coast. SURF: Swells generated by Nicholas will begin affecting portions of the northwest Gulf coast tonight and continue into Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Nicholas Public Advisory Number 2
2021-09-12 22:59:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021 000 WTNT34 KNHC 122059 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nicholas Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021 400 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021 ...NICHOLAS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST... ...STORM SURGE WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE TEXAS COAST... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.8N 95.5W ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended eastward to Freeport, Texas. A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for the coast of Texas from Port Aransas to San Luis Pass, including Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the coast of Texas from Port Aransas to Sargent. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Port Aransas to San Luis Pass Texas * Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Port Aransas to Sargent Texas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Rio Grande to Freeport Texas * Barra el Mezquital to the U.S./Mexico border A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Mouth of the Rio Grande to High Island Texas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Port Aransas to High Island Texas A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the upper Texas coast should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicholas was located near latitude 22.8 North, longitude 95.5 West. Nicholas is moving toward the north-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected through tonight. A slower northward or north-northeastward motion is forecast by late Monday or Monday night. On the forecast track, the center of Nicholas will pass near or just offshore the coasts of northeastern Mexico and South Texas on Monday, and move onshore along the coast of south or central Texas coast Monday night or early Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast until Nicholas reaches the northwest Gulf coast Monday night or early Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nicholas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages RAINFALL: Nicholas is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 8 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches, across portions of the middle and upper Texas coastal areas today through the middle of the week. Across the rest of coastal Texas into southwest Louisiana rainfall of 5 to 10 inches is expected. This rainfall may produce areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, especially in highly urbanized metropolitan areas. Additionally, there is the potential for isolated minor to moderate river flooding. Over the northeastern portions of the Mexican state of Tamaulipas rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches can be expected today into Monday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Port O'Connor to San Luis Pass TX including Matagorda Bay...3-5 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port O'Connor, TX...2-4 ft San Luis Pass to High Island, TX including Galveston Bay...2-4ft Baffin Bay, Corpus Christi Bay, Aransas Bay and San Antonio Bay...2-4 ft High Island, TX to Intracoastal City including Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake..1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore flow, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area in northeastern Mexico and southern Texas Monday morning, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. These conditions will spread northward within the warning area through Monday night. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area Monday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Monday night or early Tuesday. TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible Monday into Monday night across the middle and lower Texas coast. SURF: Swells generated by Nicholas will begin affecting portions of the northwest Gulf coast later tonight and continue into Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Nicholas Public Advisory Number 1A
2021-09-12 19:45:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021 000 WTNT34 KNHC 121745 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nicholas Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021 100 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021 ...NICHOLAS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.7N 95.5W ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Aransas Texas * Barra el Mezquital to the U.S./Mexico border A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Mouth of the Rio Grande to High Island Texas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Port Aransas to High Island Texas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the upper Texas coast should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicholas was near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 95.5 West. Nicholas is moving toward the north-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). Satellite and reconnaissance aircraft data suggest that the center may be re-forming farther north. As a result, some erratic motion is possible this afternoon, but a general north-northwestward motion near 15 mph (24 km/h) should resume later today. This motion should then continue through tonight. A slower northward or north-northeastward motion is forecast by late Monday or Monday night. On the forecast track, the center of Nicholas will pass near or just offshore the coasts of northeastern Mexico and South Texas late Monday, and approach the south or central Texas coast Monday night or early Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast while Nicholas approaches the northwestern Gulf coast during the next day or so. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nicholas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages RAINFALL: Nicholas is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches, across portions of coastal Texas into southwest Louisiana today through the middle of the week. This rainfall may produce areas of flash, urban, and isolated river flooding. Over the eastern portions of the Mexican state of Tamaulipas rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches can be expected today into Monday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Rio Grande to High Island, TX...2-4 ft Baffin Bay, Corpus Christi Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, and Galveston Bay...2-4 The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore flow, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area in northeastern Mexico and southern Texas by Monday afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Monday night or early Tuesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Larry Public Advisory Number 44
2021-09-11 16:37:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 11 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 111437 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Larry Advisory Number 44 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 11 2021 ...LARRY IS NOW A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE LABRADOR SEA... ...STILL PRODUCING LARGE SWELLS ACROSS ATLANTIC CANADA AND PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...54.0N 48.2W ABOUT 550 MI...880 KM NNE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND ABOUT 1150 MI...1855 KM WSW OF REYKJAVIK ICELAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 48 MPH...78 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Larry was located near latitude 54.0 North, longitude 48.2 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northeast near 48 mph (78 km/h) and this heading with a decrease in forward speed is expected until Larry merges with an extratropical low tonight or early Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight weakening is possible before Larry merges with another extratropical low. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb (28.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages STORM SURGE: Water levels will continue to subside in southeastern Newfoundland today. SURF: Significant swells from Larry will continue affecting portions of the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada through tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Larry. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Olaf Public Advisory Number 15
2021-09-11 10:33:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sat Sep 11 2021 722 WTPZ35 KNHC 110833 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Olaf Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 300 AM MDT Sat Sep 11 2021 ...OLAF BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.4N 114.0W ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM WSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Olaf was located near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 114.0 West. Olaf is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h). A motion toward the west-southwest or southwest is expected to begin later today and continue through Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next few days, and the remnant low could open up into a trough at any time. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Residual swells from Olaf along the west coast of Baja California Sur will continue to subside today but could still cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Berg
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