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Tropical Storm Olaf Public Advisory Number 12
2021-09-10 16:49:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Sep 10 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 101448 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Olaf Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 900 AM MDT Fri Sep 10 2021 ...TROPICAL STORM OLAF BRINGING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM LAND TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.1N 111.3W ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM W OF LA PAZ MEXICO ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SE OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has changed the Hurricane Warning to a Tropical Storm Warning for Baja California Sur Mexico from Todos Santos to Cabo San Lazaro. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Baja California Sur Mexico from Puerto San Andresito southward and around the peninsula to Loreto A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected or occurring somewhere within the tropical storm warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Olaf was located near latitude 24.1 North, longitude 111.3 West. Olaf is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the west at a slower forward speed is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the southwest on Saturday night and Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Olaf will move along the southwestern coast of Baja California Sur today and then move westward away from land by tonight. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Olaf is forecast to degenerate to a post-tropical cyclone on Saturday and weaken to a remnant low on Saturday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Olaf can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring within portions of the tropical storm warning area and will spread northward across central portions of Baja California Sur today. Tropical storm conditions should end over Baja California Sur by tonight. RAINFALL: Olaf is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches across portions of southern Baja California Sur through today. This rainfall may trigger significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding in regions of onshore winds within the warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. SURF: Swells generated by Olaf are affecting portions of the coasts of southern Baja California Sur, Nayarit, and Sinaloa, and will spread northward along the west coast of Baja California Sur through Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT. Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
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Hurricane Larry Public Advisory Number 40
2021-09-10 16:47:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 10 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 101447 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 10 2021 ...LARRY MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO THAT AREA TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...40.0N 60.5W ABOUT 595 MI...955 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Southeastern Newfoundland from Arnold's Cove to Jones Harbour A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Southeastern Newfoundland from Francois to west of Arnold's Cove * Southeastern Newfoundland from north of Jones Harbor to Fogo Island A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. Interests elsewhere in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located near latitude 40.0 North, longitude 60.5 West. Larry is moving quickly toward the north-northeast near 29 mph (46 km/h). An even faster north-northeast to northeast motion is expected during the next day or two. On the forecast track, the center of Larry will pass well southeast of Nova Scotia today, and move over southeastern Newfoundland tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before landfall in Newfoundland. After landfall, Larry should weaken and become an extratropical cyclone on Saturday before it merges with another low over the Labrador Sea on Sunday. Larry is a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in southeastern Newfoundland tonight, with tropical storm conditions expected to begin this afternoon or evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the tropical storm warning area in southeastern Newfoundland later today. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding within the warning areas in southeastern Newfoundland. SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Bahamas today. Significant swells from Larry will continue affecting Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada through Saturday night. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Heavy rains from Larry will move quickly across eastern Newfoundland tonight, producing 1 to 2 inches of rain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane Olaf Public Advisory Number 11A
2021-09-10 13:48:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 600 AM MDT Fri Sep 10 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 101148 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Olaf Intermediate Advisory Number 11A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 600 AM MDT Fri Sep 10 2021 ...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.9N 110.8W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM WSW OF LA PAZ MEXICO ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM ESE OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Baja California Sur Mexico from Todos Santos to Cabo San Lazaro A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Baja California Sur Mexico north of Cabo San Lazaro to Puerto San Andresito * Baja California Sur Mexico south of Todos Santos * Baja California Sur Mexico south of Loreto A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the hurricane warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the tropical storm warning area. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Olaf. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Olaf was located near latitude 23.9 North, longitude 110.8 West. Olaf is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the west at a slower forward speed is forecast on Saturday, followed by a turn toward the southwest on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Olaf will move along the southwestern coast of Baja California Sur today and then turn westward away from land by tonight. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Olaf is forecast to remain a hurricane while it moves along the southwestern coast of Baja California Sur today. It is expected to weaken to a tropical storm by tonight when it begins to move away from land and then degenerate to a post-tropical cyclone by Saturday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Olaf can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring within portions of the hurricane warning area and will spread northward along the west coast of Baja California Sur today. Tropical storm conditions are occurring within portions of the tropical storm warning area and will spread northward across central portions of Baja California Sur today. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions should end over Baja California Sur by tonight. RAINFALL: Olaf is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches across portions of southern Baja California Sur through today. This rainfall may trigger significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding within the warning areas in regions of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. SURF: Swells generated by Olaf are affecting portions of the coasts of southern Baja California Sur, Nayarit, and Sinaloa, and will spread northward along the west coast of Baja California Sur through Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
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Hurricane Larry Public Advisory Number 39A
2021-09-10 13:47:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM AST Fri Sep 10 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 101147 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Larry Intermediate Advisory Number 39A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 800 AM AST Fri Sep 10 2021 ...LARRY MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO THAT AREA TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.2N 60.8W ABOUT 650 MI...1045 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Southeastern Newfoundland from Arnold's Cove to Jones Harbour A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Southeastern Newfoundland from Francois to west of Arnold's Cove * Southeastern Newfoundland from north of Jones Harbor to Fogo Island A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. Interests elsewhere in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located near latitude 39.2 North, longitude 60.8 West. Larry is moving quickly toward the north-northeast near 26 mph (43 km/h). A turn to the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected later today. On the forecast track, the center of Larry will pass well southeast of Nova Scotia today, and move over southeastern Newfoundland tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next day or so, but Larry is expected to remain a hurricane until it passes Newfoundland. Larry should become an extratropical cyclone on Saturday, and is now forecast to be absorbed by a larger extratropical low near Greenland by the end of the weekend. Larry is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm- force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in southeastern Newfoundland tonight, with tropical storm conditions expected to begin this afternoon or evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the tropical storm warning area in southeastern Newfoundland later today. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding within the warning areas in southeastern Newfoundland. SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Bahamas today. Significant swells from Larry will continue affecting Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada through Saturday night. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Heavy rains from Larry will move quickly across eastern Newfoundland tonight, producing 1 to 2 inches of rain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane Larry Public Advisory Number 39
2021-09-10 10:43:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Sep 10 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 100843 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 39 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 500 AM AST Fri Sep 10 2021 ...LARRY EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.7N 61.8W ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM NNE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 765 MI...1230 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Canadian Hurricane Centre has extended the Tropical Storm Warning along the southern coast of southeastern Newfoundland westward to Francois and along the northern coast of southeastern Newfoundland to Fogo Island. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Southeastern Newfoundland from Arnold's Cove to Jones Harbour A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Southeastern Newfoundland from Francois to west of Arnold's Cove * Southeastern Newfoundland from north of Jones Harbor to Fogo Island A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. Interests elsewhere in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located near latitude 37.7 North, longitude 61.8 West. Larry is moving toward the north-northeast near 26 mph (43 km/h). A turn to the northeast with a further increase in forward speed is expected today. On the forecast track, the center of Larry will pass well southeast of Nova Scotia today, and move over southeastern Newfoundland tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next day or so, but Larry is expected to remain a hurricane until it passes Newfoundland. Larry should become an extratropical cyclone on Saturday, and is now forecast to be absorbed by a larger extratropical low near Greenland by the end of the weekend. Larry remains a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm- force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in southeastern Newfoundland tonight, with tropical storm conditions expected by late today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area in southeastern Newfoundland by late today. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding within the warning areas in southeastern Newfoundland. SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Bahamas today. Significant swells from Larry will continue affecting Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada through Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Heavy rains from Larry will move quickly across eastern Newfoundland tonight, producing 1 to 2 inches of rain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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