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Hurricane Olaf Public Advisory Number 8
2021-09-09 16:50:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Thu Sep 09 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 091450 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Olaf Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 900 AM MDT Thu Sep 09 2021 ...OLAF BECOMES A HURRICANE WITH ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING LIKELY TODAY... ...PREPARATIONS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.2N 108.3W ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Baja California Sur Mexico from Los Barriles to Santa Fe A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Baja California Sur Mexico north of Santa Fe to Cabo San Lazaro * Baja California Sur Mexico north of Los Barriles to San Evaristo A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the hurricane warning area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the tropical storm warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Olaf. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Olaf was located near latitude 21.2 North, longitude 108.3 West. Olaf is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is forecast by tonight, followed by a slower westward motion Friday night and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Olaf will approach southern Baja California Sur today, move near or over the southern part of the peninsula tonight and on Friday, and then move westward away from land Friday night and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is likely before Olaf nears the southern coast of the Baja California peninsula tonight. Weakening is likely on Friday and through the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Olaf can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the hurricane warning area tonight. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength by this afternoon or this evening, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in southern portions of the tropical storm warning area tonight and will spread northward within the warning area on Friday. RAINFALL: Olaf is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches across portions of far southern Baja California Sur today through Friday. This rainfall may trigger flash flooding and mudslides. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding within the warning areas in regions of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. SURF: Swells generated by Olaf are beginning to reach portions of the coasts of southern Baja California Sur, Nayarit, and Sinaloa, and will spread northward along the west coast of Baja California Sur through Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT. Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky
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Hurricane Larry Public Advisory Number 35A
2021-09-09 13:53:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM AST Thu Sep 09 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 091153 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Larry Intermediate Advisory Number 35A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 800 AM AST Thu Sep 09 2021 ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON BERMUDA LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.2N 61.5W ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.58 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Southeastern Newfoundland from St. Schotts to Pouch Cove A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Southeastern Newfoundland from Lamaline to west of St. Schotts * Southeastern Newfoundland from north of Pouch Cove to Bonavista A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located near latitude 31.2 North, longitude 61.5 West. Larry is moving toward the north-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a turn toward the north with an increase in forward speed is forecast today, with a faster northeastward motion expected by Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Larry should pass east of Bermuda today, and move near or over southeastern Newfoundland Friday night or early Saturday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, but Larry is expected to remain a hurricane during that time. Larry should become an extratropical cyclone early Saturday, after passing by Newfoundland, then weaken further while it passes southeast of Greenland Sunday night. Larry is expected to be absorbed by a larger extratropical low east of Greenland Monday. Larry is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 220 miles (350 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 968 mb (28.58 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda later today. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area in southeastern Newfoundland Friday night, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area in southeastern Newfoundland by late Friday. SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Leeward Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda through the end of the week. Significant swells from Larry will continue affecting the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Outer rain bands from Hurricane Larry may periodically impact Bermuda Thursday. Significant rainfall totals are currently not expected, however briefly heavy rain rates within these bands may result in an inch or two of rain through Thursday. Heavy rains from Larry will move quickly across eastern Newfoundland Friday night, producing 1 to 2 inches of rain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Olaf Public Advisory Number 7A
2021-09-09 13:49:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 600 AM MDT Thu Sep 09 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 091148 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Olaf Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 600 AM MDT Thu Sep 09 2021 ...OLAF WILL LIKELY BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.8N 108.1W ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Baja California Sur Mexico from Los Barriles to Santa Fe A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Baja California Sur Mexico north of Santa Fe to Cabo San Lazaro * Baja California Sur Mexico north of Los Barriles to San Evaristo A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the hurricane warning area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the tropical storm warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Olaf. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Olaf was located near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 108.1 West. Olaf is moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the northwest is forecast by tonight, followed by a slower westward motion Friday night and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Olaf will approach southern Baja California Sur today, move near or over the southern part of the peninsula tonight and on Friday, and then move westward away from land Friday night and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Olaf is expected to become a hurricane later today. Weakening is forecast to start on Friday when Olaf begins to move away from Baja California Sur. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.26 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Olaf can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the hurricane warning area tonight. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength by this afternoon or this evening, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in southern portions of the tropical storm warning area tonight and will spread northward within the warning area on Friday. RAINFALL: Olaf is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches across portions of far southern Baja California Sur today through Friday. This rainfall may trigger flash flooding and mudslides. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding within the warnings areas in regions of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. SURF: Swells generated by Olaf are beginning to reach portions of the coasts of southern Baja California Sur, Nayarit, and Sinaloa, and will spread northward along the west coast of Baja California Sur through Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Mindy Public Advisory Number 3
2021-09-09 12:13:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Thu Sep 09 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 091012 CCA TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Mindy Advisory Number 3...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132021 500 AM EDT Thu Sep 09 2021 Corrected to show next advisory at 1100 AM EDT ...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM MINDY SPREADING INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA AND COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.8N 83.0W ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM SSE OF VALDOSTA GEORGIA ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SW OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning along the Gulf coast of Florida has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the Atlantic coast of northeastern Florida and southeastern Georgia should monitor the progress of Mindy. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Mindy was located near latitude 30.8 North, longitude 83.0 West. The depression is moving toward the northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A slower east-northeastward motion is forecast tonight through Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Mindy is expected to move across southeastern Georgia this morning, and over the western Atlantic by late this morning or early this afternoon. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through tonight. Gradual weakening is expected on Friday, and Mindy is forecast to become a remnant low by Saturday. The minimum central pressure estimated from surface observations is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Mindy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages RAINFALL: Mindy is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches across portions of southern Georgia and coastal South Carolina through this morning. This rainfall may produce isolated to scattered flash, urban, and small stream flooding. WIND: Tropical-storm-force wind gusts may occur near the center of Mindy over portions of the southeastern Georgia through this morning. TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible over portions of north Florida and far south Georgia through this morning. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Olaf Public Advisory Number 7
2021-09-09 10:54:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Thu Sep 09 2021 192 WTPZ35 KNHC 090853 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Olaf Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 300 AM MDT Thu Sep 09 2021 ...OLAF STILL STRENGTHENING AND FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... ...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.5N 108.0W ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for Baja California Sur from Los Barriles to Santa Fe. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued north of Santa Fe to Cabo San Lazaro and north of Los Barriles to San Evaristo. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Baja California Sur Mexico from Los Barriles to Santa Fe A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Baja California Sur Mexico north of Santa Fe to Cabo San Lazaro * Baja California Sur Mexico north of Los Barriles to San Evaristo A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the hurricane warning area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the tropical storm warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Olaf. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Olaf was located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 108.0 West. Olaf is moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the northwest is forecast by tonight, followed by a slower westward motion Friday night and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Olaf will approach southern Baja California Sur today, move near or over the southern part of the peninsula tonight and on Friday, and then move westward away from land Friday night and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Olaf is expected to become a hurricane later today. Weakening is forecast to start on Friday when Olaf begins to move away from Baja California Sur. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Olaf can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the hurricane warning area tonight. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength by this afternoon or this evening, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in southern portions of the tropical storm warning area tonight and will spread northward within the warning area on Friday. RAINFALL: Olaf is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches across portions of far southern Baja California Sur today through Friday. This rainfall may trigger flash flooding and mudslides. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding within the warnings areas in regions of onshore wind. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. SURF: Swells generated by Olaf are beginning to reach portions of the coasts of southern Baja California Sur, Nayarit, and Sinaloa, and will spread northward along the west coast of Baja California Sur through Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT. Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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