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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Public Advisory Number 2A
2021-09-08 07:41:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1200 AM MDT Wed Sep 08 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 080541 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 1200 AM MDT Wed Sep 08 2021 ...DEPRESSION NOT MOVING MUCH OFF THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.3N 107.3W ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 355 MI...575 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The southern portion of Baja California Sur from Todos Santos to Los Barriles A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 AM MDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen-E was located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 107.3 West. The depression has been meandering for much of the last day or so, and the longer-term motion is toward the northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). A continued motion toward the northwest but with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected through Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of the cyclone will approach the southern end of the Baja California Peninsula late Thursday and Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected over the next couple of days, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today, and a hurricane on Thursday or Thursday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Baja California Sur by late Thursday or Thursday night. RAINFALL: Outer rainbands from the depression are likely to produce locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds along the coast of the Mexican states of Colima and Jalisco this morning. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible over portions of Baja California Sur Thursday and Thursday night. SURF: The strengthening cyclone is expected to generate swells that will affect the portions of the southern Baja California peninsula by Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Public Advisory Number 2
2021-09-08 04:43:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Tue Sep 07 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 080243 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 900 PM MDT Tue Sep 07 2021 ...CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION A LITTLE FARTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.2N 107.4W ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Meteorological Service of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the southern portion of Baja California Sur from Todos Santos to Los Barriles. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The southern portion of Baja California Sur from Todos Santos to Los Barriles A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen-E was located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 107.4 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn to the northwest is forecast to occur later tonight, and this motion along with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected through Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of the cyclone will approach the southern end of the Baja California Peninsula late Thursday and Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected over the next couple of days, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight, and a hurricane on Thursday or Thursday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Baja California Sur by late Thursday or Thursday night. RAINFALL: Outer rainbands from the depression are likely to produce locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds along the coast of the Mexican states of Colima and Jalisco through tonight. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible over portions of Baja California Sur Thursday and Thursday night. SURF: The strengthening cyclone is expected to generate swells that will affect the portions of the southern Baja California peninsula by Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT. Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Larry Public Advisory Number 30
2021-09-08 04:42:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 07 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 080242 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 07 2021 ...LARGE LARRY CONTINUING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...LIKELY TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS SWELLS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEK... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.8N 56.8W ABOUT 660 MI...1060 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of the large eye of Hurricane Larry was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 56.8 West. Larry is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. A turn toward the north-northwest and north with an increase in forward speed is forecast on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Larry should pass east of Bermuda on Thursday. Data from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Larry is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Slow weakening is forecast during the next several days. Larry is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). The minimum central pressure recently reported by the reconnaissance aircraft is 967 mb (28.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning late Wednesday or early Thursday. SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Lesser Antilles, portions of the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas through midweek, and impact Bermuda through the end of the week. Significant swells should reach the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada by midweek and continue affecting these shores through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Larry Public Advisory Number 29A
2021-09-08 01:55:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM AST Tue Sep 07 2021 385 WTNT32 KNHC 072355 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Larry Intermediate Advisory Number 29A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 800 PM AST Tue Sep 07 2021 ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS LARGE LARRY A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED... ...LIKELY TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS SWELLS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEK... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.4N 56.5W ABOUT 690 MI...1115 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of the large eye of Hurricane Larry was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 25.4 North, longitude 56.5 West. Larry is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. A turn toward the north-northwest and north with an increase in forward speed is forecast on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Larry should pass east of Bermuda on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Larry is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Slow weakening is forecast during the next several days. Larry is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning late Wednesday or early Thursday. SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Lesser Antilles, portions of the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas through midweek, and impact Bermuda through the end of the week. Significant swells should reach the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada by midweek and continue affecting these shores through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Larry Public Advisory Number 29
2021-09-07 22:52:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Sep 07 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 072052 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 500 PM AST Tue Sep 07 2021 ...LARGE LARRY STILL A MAJOR HURRICANE... ...LIKELY TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS SWELLS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEK... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.1N 56.3W ABOUT 715 MI...1150 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located near latitude 25.1 North, longitude 56.3 West. Larry is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. A turn toward the north-northwest and north with an increase in forward speed is forecast on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Larry should pass east of Bermuda on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Larry is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Slow weakening is forecast during the next several days. Larry is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). The minimum central pressure reported by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 965 mb (28.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning late Wednesday or early Thursday. SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Lesser Antilles, portions of the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas through midweek, and impact Bermuda through the end of the week. Significant swells should reach the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada by midweek and continue affecting these shores through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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