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Tropical Storm Henri Wind Speed Probabilities Number 27
2021-08-22 16:52:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 22 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 221452 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM HENRI WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021 1500 UTC SUN AUG 22 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 41.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 6(12) X(12) X(12) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) AUGUSTA ME 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 3(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) PORTLAND ME 34 X 4( 4) 17(21) 3(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) PORTLAND ME 50 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CONCORD NH 34 5 18(23) 14(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) CONCORD NH 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 1 10(11) 18(29) 3(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) PORTSMOUTH NH 50 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) WORCESTER MA 34 76 1(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) WORCESTER MA 50 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 91 X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) SPRINGFIELD MA 50 3 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BOSTON MA 34 12 5(17) 13(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) BOSTON MA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HYANNIS MA 34 11 1(12) 8(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) NANTUCKET MA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PROVIDENCE RI 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PROVIDENCE RI 50 6 X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 43 1(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) NEW HAVEN CT 34 86 X(86) 1(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) HARTFORD CT 34 95 X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) HARTFORD CT 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW LONDON CT 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ALBANY NY 34 26 12(38) 2(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 18 4(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) MONTAUK POINT 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MONTAUK POINT 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLIP NY 34 13 1(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm Henri Public Advisory Number 27
2021-08-22 16:51:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 221451 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Henri Advisory Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 1100 AM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021 ...CENTER OF HENRI PASSING CLOSE TO BLOCK ISLAND AS THE STORM HEADS FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, STRONG GUSTY WINDS, AND FLOODING RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...41.1N 71.6W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM E OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSW OF PROVIDENCE RHODE ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued from East Rockaway Inlet to west of Mastic Beach, New York, and from north of Chatham, Massachusetts to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts, including Cape Cod Bay. The Tropical Storm Warning from East Rockaway Inlet, New York to Manasquan Inlet, New Jersey has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point New York * North shore of Long Island from Montauk Point to Flushing New York * Flushing New York to Chatham Massachusetts * Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East Rockaway Inlet New York to Chatham Massachusetts, including Long Island * Block Island, Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in the northeastern U.S. should monitor the progress of Henri. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 41.1 North, longitude 71.6 West. Henri is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A north-northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected for the next few hours, followed by a turn toward the northwest this afternoon. The center of Henri is currently passing near Block Island and on the forecast track the center is expected to make landfall in Rhode Island by early afternoon. Henri is forecast to slow down and possibly stall near the Connecticut-New York border tonight, followed by an east-northeastward motion across northern Connecticut and southern Massachusetts on Monday. Data from the aircraft, Doppler radars, and surface observations indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected until landfall occurs, followed by rapid weakening after Henri moves inland over southern New England. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. A Weatherflow station on Block Island, Rhode Island, recently reported a sustained wind of 52 mph (84 km/h) and a gust to 65 mph (105 km/h). Another Weatherflow station near Point Judith, Rhode Island, recently measured a sustained wind of 51 mph (82 km/h) and a gust to 69 mph (111 km/h). The NOAA C-MAN station at Buzzards Bay, Massachusetts, recently measured a sustained wind of 49 mph (79 km/h) and a gust to 57 mph (92 km/h), while an amateur radio operator in Westport, Massachusetts, recently reported a sustained wind of 41 mph (66 km/h) and a gust to 62 mph (100 km/h). The latest minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft data is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Henri can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Flushing, NY to Chatham, MA including Narragansett Bay, Buzzards Bay, Vineyard Sound, and Nantucket Sound...2-4 ft North shore of Long Island from Flushing, NY to Montauk Point, NY including Long Island Sound...2-4 ft South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point, NY...2-4 ft Chatham, MA to Merrimack River, MA including Cape Cod Bay and Massachusetts Bay...1-2 ft East Rockaway Inlet, NY to Mastic Beach, NY...1-2 ft Recent reports from an amateur radio operator in Newport, Rhode Island, indicate that storm surge inundation near 1 ft has occurred, with water reported in the streets in some areas of the city. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in the tropical storm warning area into tonight. Some tree and power line damage has already been reported across southern Rhode Island. RAINFALL: Henri is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches over portions of Long Island, New England, southeast New York, New Jersey, and northeast Pennsylvania Sunday into Monday, with isolated maximum totals near 12 inches. Heavy rainfall from Henri may result in considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with the potential for widespread minor to isolated moderate river flooding. TORNADOES: The risk for a tornado or two continues today across parts of southern New England. SURF: Swells generated by Henri should diminish around Bermuda later today. Swells are expected to increase across much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada today and continue into Monday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Henri Forecast Advisory Number 27
2021-08-22 16:50:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 22 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 221450 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HENRI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021 1500 UTC SUN AUG 22 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM EAST ROCKAWAY INLET TO WEST OF MASTIC BEACH NEW YORK AND FROM NORTH OF CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING CAPE COD BAY. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM EAST ROCKAWAY INLET NEW YORK TO MANASQUAN INLET NEW JERSEY HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM MASTIC BEACH TO MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK * NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM MONTAUK POINT TO FLUSHING NEW YORK * FLUSHING NEW YORK TO CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS * NANTUCKET...MARTHA'S VINEYARD...AND BLOCK ISLAND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST ROCKAWAY INLET NEW YORK TO CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND * BLOCK ISLAND...NANTUCKET AND MARTHA'S VINEYARD A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HENRI. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.1N 71.6W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 110SE 70SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 270SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.1N 71.6W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.7N 71.3W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 42.4N 73.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 43.0N 72.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 43.3N 71.3W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 43.7N 68.7W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 44.3N 64.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 41.1N 71.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 22/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Henri Update Statement
2021-08-22 15:51:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021 000 WTNT63 KNHC 221351 TCUAT3 Tropical Storm Henri Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 1000 AM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021 ...1000 AM EDT POSITION UPDATE... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUE SPREADING INLAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND... A Weatherflow station on Block Island, Rhode Island, recently reported a sustained wind of 50 mph (80 km/h) and a gust to 63 mph (101 km/h). Another Weatherflow station near Point Judith, Rhode Island, recently measured a sustained wind of 43 mph (69 km/h) and a gust to 51 mph (82 km/h), while a station at Great Gull Island near the eastern end of Long Island, New York, measured a sustained wind of 41 mph (66 km/h) and a gust to 56 mph (90 km/h). The NOAA C-MAN station at Buzzards Bay, Massachusetts, recently measured a sustained wind of 49 mph (79 km/h) and a gust to 52 mph (84 km/h). SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EDT...1400 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...40.9N 71.4W ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM ESE OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM S OF PROVIDENCE RHODE ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES $$ Forecaster Stewart/Brennan
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Summary for Tropical Storm Henri (AT3/AL082021)
2021-08-22 15:51:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...1000 AM EDT POSITION UPDATE... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUE SPREADING INLAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND... As of 10:00 AM EDT Sun Aug 22 the center of Henri was located near 40.9, -71.4 with movement NNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 987 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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