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Hurricane Henri Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics
2021-08-21 17:13:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Sat, 21 Aug 2021 15:13:51 GMT
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henri
Hurricane Henri Graphics
2021-08-21 16:43:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 21 Aug 2021 14:43:28 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 21 Aug 2021 15:28:36 GMT
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Hurricane Henri Forecast Discussion Number 23
2021-08-21 16:42:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sat Aug 21 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 211442 TCDAT3 Hurricane Henri Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 1100 AM EDT Sat Aug 21 2021 The Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunters have been investigating Henri this morning and continue to provide very valuable data. The Air Force aircraft measured a peak flight-level wind of 82 kt at 700 mb, which easily supports hurricane strength, but the initial intensity is set at 65 kt as a blend of these data and somewhat lower SFMR winds. In addition, aircraft data indicate that the minimum pressure has fallen to 991 mb. The NOAA tail Doppler radar data indicate that the storm is becoming more vertically aligned and that a more symmetric eyewall appears to be forming. In addition, dropsonde data from the NOAA Gulfstream IV aircraft flying around Henri indicate that the 34- and 50-kt wind radii are a little larger than previously estimated in the southeastern quadrant. NOAA buoy 41001 located in the northeastern quadrant of the hurricane has recently reported 18 ft. seas. Henri is moving north-northeastward, or 020 degrees, at 12 kt. The steering pattern appears fairly well established now with a cut off low located over the central Appalachians and a ridge building to the east and northeast of Henri. This pattern should cause the storm to accelerate to the north or north-northeast today followed by a slight bend to the left on Sunday. The latest run of the GFS has shifted to the east, but overall the models are focused in on landfall being between central Long Island and Rhode Island on Sunday. However, users are reminded to not focus on the center itself, as impacts will extend well away from the center, especially to the east. The new NHC track forecast is a little to the east of the previous one and very near the best-performing models, the consensus aids. The environment looks favorable for Henri to continue to gain strength through tonight with low shear, upper-level divergence associated with the upper-level trough, and warm SSTs. In fact, the GFS and HWRF models show the minimum pressure dropping by 15 mb or more during that time period. By early Sunday, Henri is predicted to cross the north wall of the Gulf Stream and that should cause some weakening, but Henri is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength at landfall. Once the center moves inland over the northeast United States, rapid weakening is expected. Henri is forecast to become post-tropical in 48-60 hours and dissipate in 3 to 4 days. Key Messages: 1. Dangerous storm surge inundation is expected to begin late tonight or Sunday in portions of Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and southeastern Massachusetts, where a Storm Surge Warning has been issued. Dangerous storm surge is possible beginning late tonight or Sunday in western portions of Long Island and Connecticut in the Storm Surge Watch area. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin late tonight or Sunday in portions of Long Island, Connecticut, and Rhode Island, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions will begin in these areas tonight. 3. Heavy rainfall may lead to considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with the potential for widespread minor and isolated moderate river flooding, over portions of Long Island, New England, southeast New York and northern New Jersey. 4. Swells from Henri will continue to affect much of the east coast of the U.S. during the next day or two. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 34.4N 72.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 36.9N 71.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 39.7N 71.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 41.3N 72.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 48H 23/1200Z 42.4N 72.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 60H 24/0000Z 43.1N 71.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 24/1200Z 43.8N 69.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane Henri Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2021-08-21 16:41:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Sat, 21 Aug 2021 14:41:36 GMT
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Hurricane Henri Wind Speed Probabilities Number 23
2021-08-21 16:41:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 21 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 211441 PWSAT3 HURRICANE HENRI WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021 1500 UTC SAT AUG 21 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HENRI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) 7(16) X(16) X(16) AUGUSTA ME 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 3(14) 9(23) X(23) X(23) AUGUSTA ME 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORTLAND ME 34 X 3( 3) 19(22) 3(25) 9(34) X(34) X(34) PORTLAND ME 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PORTLAND ME 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CONCORD NH 34 X 4( 4) 38(42) 7(49) 5(54) X(54) X(54) CONCORD NH 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) CONCORD NH 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X 4( 4) 33(37) 6(43) 5(48) X(48) X(48) PORTSMOUTH NH 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PORTSMOUTH NH 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) WORCESTER MA 34 X 10(10) 55(65) 6(71) 2(73) X(73) X(73) WORCESTER MA 50 X 1( 1) 26(27) 4(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) WORCESTER MA 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X 10(10) 62(72) 6(78) 2(80) X(80) X(80) SPRINGFIELD MA 50 X 1( 1) 32(33) 5(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) SPRINGFIELD MA 64 X X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) BOSTON MA 34 X 8( 8) 47(55) 5(60) 2(62) X(62) X(62) BOSTON MA 50 X X( X) 12(12) 2(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) BOSTON MA 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 1 16(17) 39(56) 3(59) 1(60) X(60) X(60) HYANNIS MA 50 X 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 2 47(49) 18(67) 1(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) NANTUCKET MA 50 X 6( 6) 9(15) 1(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) NANTUCKET MA 64 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PROVIDENCE RI 34 2 46(48) 34(82) 1(83) 1(84) X(84) X(84) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X 6( 6) 34(40) 3(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) PROVIDENCE RI 64 X X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 1 24(25) 53(78) 3(81) 1(82) X(82) X(82) BRIDGEPORT CT 50 X 1( 1) 33(34) 4(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39) BRIDGEPORT CT 64 X X( X) 11(11) X(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) NEW HAVEN CT 34 1 24(25) 57(82) 3(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) NEW HAVEN CT 50 X 2( 2) 41(43) 4(47) 1(48) X(48) X(48) NEW HAVEN CT 64 X X( X) 15(15) 1(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) HARTFORD CT 34 X 17(17) 62(79) 6(85) 1(86) X(86) X(86) HARTFORD CT 50 X 1( 1) 41(42) 4(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) HARTFORD CT 64 X X( X) 13(13) 1(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) NEW LONDON CT 34 1 34(35) 50(85) 3(88) 1(89) X(89) X(89) NEW LONDON CT 50 X 5( 5) 45(50) 4(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) NEW LONDON CT 64 X 1( 1) 16(17) X(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) ALBANY NY 34 X 4( 4) 43(47) 10(57) 2(59) X(59) X(59) ALBANY NY 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) ALBANY NY 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X 7( 7) 52(59) 6(65) 2(67) X(67) X(67) POUGHKEEPSIE 50 X X( X) 14(14) 3(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) POUGHKEEPSIE 64 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MONTAUK POINT 34 3 66(69) 23(92) 1(93) 1(94) X(94) X(94) MONTAUK POINT 50 X 17(17) 48(65) 2(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) MONTAUK POINT 64 X 3( 3) 24(27) 1(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) ISLIP NY 34 2 34(36) 43(79) 2(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) ISLIP NY 50 X 3( 3) 28(31) 3(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) ISLIP NY 64 X X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 3 41(44) 29(73) 1(74) 1(75) X(75) X(75) NYC JFK AIRPRT 50 X 3( 3) 15(18) 2(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) NYC JFK AIRPRT 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 1 14(15) 43(58) 4(62) 1(63) X(63) X(63) NYC CNTRL PARK 50 X X( X) 12(12) 1(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) NYC CNTRL PARK 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEWARK NJ 34 1 11(12) 39(51) 4(55) 2(57) X(57) X(57) NEWARK NJ 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) NEWARK NJ 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) TRENTON NJ 34 1 6( 7) 22(29) 2(31) 2(33) X(33) X(33) TRENTON NJ 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NWS EARLE NJ 34 2 14(16) 30(46) 3(49) 1(50) X(50) X(50) NWS EARLE NJ 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NWS EARLE NJ 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ALLENTOWN PA 34 1 3( 4) 16(20) 3(23) 2(25) X(25) X(25) PHILADELPHIA 34 1 5( 6) 13(19) 3(22) 2(24) X(24) X(24) ATLANTIC CITY 34 2 8(10) 12(22) 2(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) BALTIMORE MD 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) DOVER DE 34 2 3( 5) 5(10) 1(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) WASHINGTON DC 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 3 9(12) 6(18) 1(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) OCEAN CITY MD 34 3 7(10) 4(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) PAX RIVER NAS 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) WALLOPS CDA 34 3 5( 8) 2(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) RICHMOND VA 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NORFOLK NAS 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NORFOLK VA 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) OCEANA NAS VA 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ELIZABETH CTY 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW RIVER NC 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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