je.st
news
Tag: henri
Hurricane Henri Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics
2021-08-21 23:15:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Sat, 21 Aug 2021 21:15:47 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
hurricane
henri
Hurricane Henri Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2021-08-21 22:34:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Sat, 21 Aug 2021 20:34:45 GMT
Tags: map
storm
hurricane
henri
Hurricane Henri Graphics
2021-08-21 22:34:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 21 Aug 2021 20:34:28 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 21 Aug 2021 21:28:44 GMT
Tags: graphics
hurricane
henri
hurricane graphics
Hurricane Henri Forecast Discussion Number 24
2021-08-21 22:33:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Sat Aug 21 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 212033 TCDAT3 Hurricane Henri Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 500 PM EDT Sat Aug 21 2021 Visible satellite images and microwave data indicate that a tight inner core has formed in association with Henri, but the convective pattern appears ragged in infrared images. An ASCAT pass from earlier today indicated that the 34- and 50-kt winds continue to expand in the southeastern quadrant, and that data was used to update the initial wind radii. The latest Dvorak estimates range from 55 to 77 kt, and based on that data, the initial intensity is held at 65 kt. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters will be investigating Henri this evening. Henri is moving faster to the north-northeast, or 020 degrees, at 16 kt. There continues to be little change to the forecast track philosophy. A cut-off low located over the central Appalachians and a ridge building to the east and northeast of Henri should cause the storm to continue moving north-northeastward through tonight. A decresae in forward speed and a slight bend to the left is then forecast to occur on Sunday. The latest model guidance has shifted slightly to the right, and the NHC official track forecast has been nudged in that direction. This forecast shows landfall over eastern Long Island and southern Connecticut in about 24 hours. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track, as the average 24-hour track uncertainty is around 40 miles and impacts will extend well away from the center. The environment looks favorable for Henri to strengthen through tonight with low shear, upper-level divergence associated with the upper-level trough, and warm SSTs. In fact, SST analyses indicate that Henri will be passing over a patch of very warm 30 deg C waters this evening. By early Sunday Henri is predicted to cross the north wall of the Gulf Stream. That should result in some weakening, but Henri is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength at landfall. Once the center moves inland over the northeast United States, rapid weakening is expected. Henri is forecast to become post-tropical in about 48 hours and dissipate in 3 to 4 days. Key Messages: 1. Dangerous storm surge inundation is expected to begin late tonight or Sunday in portions of Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and southeastern Massachusetts, where a Storm Surge Warning has been issued. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin late tonight or Sunday in portions of Long Island, Connecticut, and Rhode Island, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions will begin in these areas tonight. 3. Heavy rainfall may lead to considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with the potential for widespread minor to isolated moderate river flooding over portions of Long Island, New England, eastern New York and New Jersey. 4. Swells from Henri will continue to affect much of the east coast of the U.S. during the next day or two. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 36.3N 71.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 38.8N 71.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 40.8N 72.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 42.1N 72.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 48H 23/1800Z 43.3N 71.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 24/0600Z 43.6N 69.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 24/1800Z 44.3N 68.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
hurricane
Hurricane Henri Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24
2021-08-21 22:33:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 21 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 212033 PWSAT3 HURRICANE HENRI WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021 2100 UTC SAT AUG 21 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HENRI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT YARMOUTH NS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) EASTPORT ME 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13) AUGUSTA ME 34 X 5( 5) 5(10) 3(13) 6(19) X(19) X(19) PORTLAND ME 34 X 9( 9) 8(17) 5(22) 5(27) X(27) X(27) PORTLAND ME 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CONCORD NH 34 1 15(16) 19(35) 7(42) 3(45) X(45) X(45) CONCORD NH 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CONCORD NH 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 1 15(16) 16(32) 5(37) 3(40) X(40) X(40) PORTSMOUTH NH 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WORCESTER MA 34 2 35(37) 28(65) 3(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) WORCESTER MA 50 X 6( 6) 15(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) WORCESTER MA 64 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 2 35(37) 28(65) 3(68) 1(69) X(69) X(69) SPRINGFIELD MA 50 X 6( 6) 13(19) X(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) SPRINGFIELD MA 64 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BOSTON MA 34 2 29(31) 23(54) 2(56) 1(57) X(57) X(57) BOSTON MA 50 X 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) BOSTON MA 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) HYANNIS MA 34 3 37(40) 13(53) 2(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) HYANNIS MA 50 X 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) HYANNIS MA 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NANTUCKET MA 34 11 50(61) 3(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) NANTUCKET MA 50 X 12(12) 2(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) NANTUCKET MA 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PROVIDENCE RI 34 6 65(71) 8(79) 1(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X 27(27) 11(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) PROVIDENCE RI 64 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 2 49(51) 18(69) 1(70) 1(71) X(71) X(71) BRIDGEPORT CT 50 X 9( 9) 6(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) BRIDGEPORT CT 64 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW HAVEN CT 34 2 54(56) 18(74) 1(75) 1(76) X(76) X(76) NEW HAVEN CT 50 X 13(13) 10(23) X(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) NEW HAVEN CT 64 X 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) HARTFORD CT 34 2 45(47) 25(72) 2(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) HARTFORD CT 50 X 11(11) 12(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) HARTFORD CT 64 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW LONDON CT 34 3 66(69) 15(84) 1(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) NEW LONDON CT 50 X 27(27) 17(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) NEW LONDON CT 64 X 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ALBANY NY 34 1 13(14) 17(31) 2(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) ALBANY NY 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 1 21(22) 21(43) 1(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) POUGHKEEPSIE 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) POUGHKEEPSIE 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MONTAUK POINT 34 10 79(89) 4(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) MONTAUK POINT 50 X 51(51) 8(59) 1(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) MONTAUK POINT 64 X 12(12) 2(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) ISLIP NY 34 2 57(59) 10(69) 1(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) ISLIP NY 50 X 10(10) 4(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) ISLIP NY 64 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 4 50(54) 5(59) 1(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) NYC JFK AIRPRT 50 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NYC JFK AIRPRT 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 1 30(31) 14(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) NYC CNTRL PARK 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEWARK NJ 34 1 24(25) 12(37) 2(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) TRENTON NJ 34 1 12(13) 8(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) NWS EARLE NJ 34 2 23(25) 10(35) X(35) 1(36) X(36) X(36) ALLENTOWN PA 34 1 6( 7) 5(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) PHILADELPHIA 34 1 8( 9) 5(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) ATLANTIC CITY 34 2 9(11) 6(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) BALTIMORE MD 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) DOVER DE 34 1 4( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) WASHINGTON DC 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 4 6(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) OCEAN CITY MD 34 4 5( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) PAX RIVER NAS 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WALLOPS CDA 34 4 3( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) OCEANA NAS VA 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CAPE HATTERAS 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tags: number
speed
wind
hurricane
Sites : [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] next »