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Hurricane Henri Graphics
2021-08-22 04:50:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 22 Aug 2021 02:50:34 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 22 Aug 2021 03:22:48 GMT
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Hurricane Henri Forecast Discussion Number 25
2021-08-22 04:49:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sat Aug 21 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 220249 TCDAT3 Hurricane Henri Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 1100 PM EDT Sat Aug 21 2021 The convective pattern associated with Henri is less ragged than it was 6 h ago, as the convection has increased near the center and a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported a 25 n mi wide eye has formed However, the hurricane has not yet strengthened significantly, as the maximum winds remain about 65 kt in the southeastern eyewall and the central pressure is near 987 mb. Henri has moved a little to the right of the previous track at 18-20 kt during the past several hours. However, the cyclone now seems to be moving northward with an initial motion of 355/18 kt. There is no change to the forecast track philosophy. A cut-off low located over the central Appalachians and a ridge building to the east and northeast of Henri should cause the storm to move generally northward tonight. A turn toward the north-northwest and a slower forward speed are expected on Sunday, which should bring the center near or over southern New England or Long Island between 18-24 h. With the more eastward initial position, the forecast track is shifted a bit to the east of the previous forecast. However, there is still some uncertainty of the landfall point, as several of the guidance models are to the left of the official forecast. After landfall, Henri should slow its forward speed and turn eastward as it become steered by the mid-latitude westerlies. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track, as the average 24-hour track uncertainty is around 40 miles and impacts will extend well away from the center. Henri is almost out of time to strengthen, as the center will be moving north of the north wall of the Gulf Stream during the next several hours. The intensity forecast will call for modest strengthening during the first 12 h based on the premise that strengthening will occur before Henri reaches the cooler waters. After that, while the cyclone should start to weaken before landfall, it should still be near or at hurricane strength when it reaches southern New England. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall, and Henri is again forecast to become post-tropical in about 48 hours and dissipate in 3 to 4 days. Key Messages: 1. Dangerous storm surge inundation is expected to begin late tonight or Sunday in portions of Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and southeastern Massachusetts, where a Storm Surge Warning has been issued. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin late tonight or Sunday in portions of Long Island, Connecticut, and Rhode Island, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions will begin in these areas late tonight. 3. Heavy rainfall may lead to considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with the potential for widespread minor to isolated moderate river flooding over portions of Long Island, New England, eastern New York and New Jersey. 4. Swells from Henri will continue to affect much of the east coast of the U.S. during the next day or two. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 38.6N 71.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 40.3N 71.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 41.9N 71.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 36H 23/1200Z 43.1N 71.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 24/0000Z 43.9N 70.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 24/1200Z 44.4N 68.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 25/0000Z 44.8N 63.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Henri Wind Speed Probabilities Number 25
2021-08-22 04:49:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 22 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 220249 PWSAT3 HURRICANE HENRI WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021 0300 UTC SUN AUG 22 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HENRI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) X(14) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) X(13) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) X(21) X(21) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 32(34) X(34) X(34) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) X(13) HALIFAX NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) YARMOUTH NS 34 1 4( 5) 3( 8) 6(14) 27(41) X(41) X(41) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) X(23) X(23) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) X(15) X(15) MONCTON NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST JOHN NB 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 22(26) X(26) X(26) ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) EASTPORT ME 34 X 5( 5) 3( 8) 7(15) 24(39) X(39) X(39) EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) X(15) X(15) EASTPORT ME 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BAR HARBOR ME 34 1 7( 8) 4(12) 10(22) 17(39) X(39) X(39) BAR HARBOR ME 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) X(12) X(12) BAR HARBOR ME 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) AUGUSTA ME 34 2 11(13) 5(18) 12(30) 11(41) X(41) X(41) AUGUSTA ME 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) AUGUSTA ME 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PORTLAND ME 34 2 25(27) 10(37) 8(45) 6(51) X(51) X(51) PORTLAND ME 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) PORTLAND ME 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CONCORD NH 34 3 47(50) 14(64) 2(66) 2(68) X(68) X(68) CONCORD NH 50 X 10(10) 7(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) CONCORD NH 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 3 48(51) 11(62) 2(64) 2(66) X(66) X(66) PORTSMOUTH NH 50 X 9( 9) 8(17) 3(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) PORTSMOUTH NH 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WORCESTER MA 34 5 77(82) 6(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) WORCESTER MA 50 X 40(40) 5(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) WORCESTER MA 64 X 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 4 70(74) 5(79) 1(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) SPRINGFIELD MA 50 X 22(22) 2(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) SPRINGFIELD MA 64 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BOSTON MA 34 6 73(79) 4(83) 1(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) BOSTON MA 50 X 35(35) 6(41) 1(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) BOSTON MA 64 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HYANNIS MA 34 40 45(85) 1(86) X(86) 1(87) X(87) X(87) HYANNIS MA 50 2 33(35) 3(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) HYANNIS MA 64 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 83 10(93) 1(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) NANTUCKET MA 50 18 27(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) NANTUCKET MA 64 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PROVIDENCE RI 34 57 40(97) 1(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) PROVIDENCE RI 50 5 66(71) 2(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) PROVIDENCE RI 64 1 17(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 6 56(62) 2(64) 1(65) 1(66) X(66) X(66) BRIDGEPORT CT 50 X 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BRIDGEPORT CT 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NEW HAVEN CT 34 7 66(73) 2(75) 1(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) NEW HAVEN CT 50 X 12(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) NEW HAVEN CT 64 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HARTFORD CT 34 4 72(76) 4(80) 1(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) HARTFORD CT 50 X 21(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) HARTFORD CT 64 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW LONDON CT 34 26 67(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) NEW LONDON CT 50 2 51(53) 2(55) 1(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) NEW LONDON CT 64 X 12(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) ALBANY NY 34 2 26(28) 4(32) 1(33) 2(35) X(35) X(35) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 2 31(33) 3(36) 1(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) MONTAUK POINT 34 73 25(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) MONTAUK POINT 50 10 59(69) 1(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) MONTAUK POINT 64 4 24(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) ISLIP NY 34 11 48(59) 1(60) 1(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) ISLIP NY 50 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 11 28(39) 1(40) 1(41) 1(42) X(42) X(42) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 3 24(27) 3(30) X(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) NEWARK NJ 34 2 18(20) 2(22) X(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) TRENTON NJ 34 2 7( 9) 1(10) X(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) NWS EARLE NJ 34 3 13(16) 1(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) ALLENTOWN PA 34 2 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PHILADELPHIA 34 2 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ATLANTIC CITY 34 2 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BALTIMORE MD 34 1 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) DOVER DE 34 1 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WASHINGTON DC 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 3 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) OCEAN CITY MD 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PAX RIVER NAS 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WALLOPS CDA 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Hurricane Henri (AT3/AL082021)
2021-08-22 04:49:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HURRICANE CONDITIONS, AND FLOODING RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY... As of 11:00 PM EDT Sat Aug 21 the center of Henri was located near 38.6, -71.0 with movement N at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 987 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
Hurricane Henri Public Advisory Number 25
2021-08-22 04:49:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sat Aug 21 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 220249 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Henri Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 1100 PM EDT Sat Aug 21 2021 ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORT THAT HENRI IS MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND LONG ISLAND... ...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HURRICANE CONDITIONS, AND FLOODING RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.6N 71.0W ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SSE OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM S OF PROVIDENCE RHODE ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point New York * North shore of Long Island from Montauk Point to Flushing New York * Flushing New York to Chatham Massachusetts * Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic New York * North of Chatham Massachusetts to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts * Cape Cod Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * South shore of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk Point * North shore of Long Island from Port Jefferson Harbor to Montauk Point * New Haven Connecticut to west of Westport Massachusetts * Block Island A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Port Jefferson Harbor to west of New Haven Connecticut * South shore of Long Island from west of Fire Island Inlet to East Rockaway Inlet * Westport Massachusetts to Chatham Massachusetts, including Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket * Coastal New York and New Jersey west of East Rockaway Inlet to Manasquan Inlet, including New York City A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. Interests elsewhere in the northeastern U.S. should monitor the progress of Henri. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Henri was located near latitude 38.6 North, longitude 71.0 West. Henri is moving toward the north near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A decrease in forward speed and a turn toward the north-northwest is expected on Sunday. On the forecast track, Henri is expected to make landfall in southern New England or on Long Island on Sunday. After landfall, a turn to the north and a slower forward speed are expected as Henri moves over southern New England. Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight strengthening is possible tonight. Weakening is expected on Sunday. However, Henri is expected to be at or near hurricane strength when it reaches the coasts of southern New England and Long island. Rapid weakening is expected after Henri makes landfall. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Henri can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Flushing, NY to Chatham, MA including Narragansett Bay, Buzzards Bay, Vineyard Sound, and Nantucket Sound...3-5 ft North shore of Long Island from Flushing to Montauk Point, NY including Long Island Sound...3-5 ft South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point, NY...3-5 ft Chatham, MA to Sagamore Beach, MA including Cape Cod Bay...2-4 ft South shore of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic Beach, NY...2-4 ft Cape May, NJ to East Rockaway Inlet, NY...1-3 ft Sagamore Beach, MA to Merrimack River including Massachusetts Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area on Sunday, with tropical storm conditions expected by late tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area late tonight and Sunday. RAINFALL: Henri is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches over portions of Long Island, New England, southeast New York, and New Jersey Sunday into Monday, with isolated maximum totals near 10 inches. Heavy rainfall from Henri may result in considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with the potential for widespread minor to isolated moderate river flooding. TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur Sunday over southern New England. SURF: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda during the next day or so. Swells are expected to increase across much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada today and Sunday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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