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Tropical Storm Eta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 47
2020-11-12 03:45:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU NOV 12 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 120245 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 47 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 0300 UTC THU NOV 12 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SURF CITY NC 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) LITTLE RIVER 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHARLESTON SC 34 X 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 1 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAVANNAH GA 34 1 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) KINGS BAY GA 34 12 21(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) WAYCROSS GA 34 5 5(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) MAYPORT NS FL 34 22 22(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) MAYPORT NS FL 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JACKSONVILLE 34 25 15(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) GAINESVILLE FL 34 88 1(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) GAINESVILLE FL 50 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) DAYTONA BEACH 34 20 7(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) THE VILLAGES 34 93 1(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) THE VILLAGES 50 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ORLANDO FL 34 15 X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) COCOA BEACH FL 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PATRICK AFB 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) VENICE FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) TAMPA FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) TAMPA FL 50 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CEDAR KEY FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CEDAR KEY FL 50 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ST MARKS FL 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Summary for Tropical Storm Eta (AT4/AL292020)
2020-11-12 03:45:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ETA CONTINUES TO BRING HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS TO PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA... As of 10:00 PM EST Wed Nov 11 the center of Eta was located near 28.3, -83.4 with movement N at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Eta Public Advisory Number 47
2020-11-12 03:45:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 120245 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 47 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 1000 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2020 ...ETA CONTINUES TO BRING HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS TO PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.3N 83.4W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM NW OF ST. PETERSBURG FLORIDA ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM WNW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from the Flagler/Volusia County Florida line northward to St. Andrews Sound Georgia. The Tropical Storm Warning south of Boca Grande Florida has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Bonita Beach to Suwanee River Florida, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Boca Grande to Suwannee River Florida * Flagler/Volusia County Florida line northward to St. Andrews Sound Georgia. A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Steinhatchee River to Suwannee River Florida A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of the Suwannee River to Aucilla River Florida A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 6 to 12 hours. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in this case within 24 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in this case within 24 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere along the Gulf Coast of Florida should monitor the progress of Eta. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM EST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located near latitude 28.3 North, longitude 83.4 West. Eta is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue overnight, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast and northeast Thursday morning. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will move near but just offshore of the west-central coast of Florida during the next few hours, and move inland over the northern portion of the Florida peninsula on Thursday morning. Eta is expected to move northeastward into the western Atlantic late Thursday and early Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is expected as Eta approaches the west coast of Florida tonight, followed by more rapid weakening after landfall occurs on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. Albert Whitted Airport near St. Petersburg recently reported sustained winds of 40 mph (64 km/h) and a gust of 52 mph (84 km/h). A Weatherflow site in Tampa Bay recently measured sustained winds of 45 mph (72 km/h) and a gust of 59 mph (94 km/h). The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Anclote River to Boca Grande, FL including Tampa Bay...3-5 ft Boca Grande, FL to Bonita Beach, FL including Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft Steinhatchee River to Anclote River...2-4 ft Bonita Beach to Flamingo...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall totals: West and central Florida, through Thursday: 2 to 4 inches, with maximum storm total accumulations of 6 inches. North and South Florida, through Thursday: An additional 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 4 inches in North Florida and 20 to 25 inches in South Florida. Additional flash and urban flooding will be possible in South Florida through Thursday, especially across previously inundated areas. Flash, urban, and isolated minor river flooding is expected across portions of West and North Florida through Thursday. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Florida west coast through Thursday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the Florida Big Bend region on Thursday. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible overnight over parts of western and central Florida. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north coast of Cuba, southern and western Florida, and the Florida Keys during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM EST. Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Advisory Number 47
2020-11-12 03:44:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU NOV 12 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 120244 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 47 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 0300 UTC THU NOV 12 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY FLORIDA LINE NORTHWARD TO ST. ANDREWS SOUND GEORGIA. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF BOCA GRANDE FLORIDA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BONITA BEACH TO SUWANEE RIVER FLORIDA...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY AND CHARLOTTE HARBOR A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BOCA GRANDE TO SUWANNEE RIVER FLORIDA * FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY FLORIDA LINE NORTHWARD TO ST. ANDREWS SOUND GEORGIA. A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * STEINHATCHEE RIVER TO SUWANNEE RIVER FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO AUCILLA RIVER FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ETA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 83.4W AT 12/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 30SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 83.4W AT 12/0300Z AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 83.4W FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 29.7N 82.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 31.8N 79.8W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 33.7N 76.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 35.5N 72.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 37.0N 68.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.3N 83.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 12/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm Eta Graphics
2020-11-12 00:58:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 11 Nov 2020 23:58:31 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 11 Nov 2020 21:24:41 GMT
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