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Tropical Storm Eta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 50
2020-11-12 21:41:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU NOV 12 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 122041 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 50 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 2100 UTC THU NOV 12 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE HATTERAS 34 1 17(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) MOREHEAD CITY 34 5 9(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) SURF CITY NC 34 10 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) BALD HEAD ISL 34 19 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) LITTLE RIVER 34 9 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) MYRTLE BEACH 34 8 X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CHARLESTON SC 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Advisory Number 50
2020-11-12 21:41:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU NOV 12 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 122040 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 50 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 2100 UTC THU NOV 12 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 80.6W AT 12/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 80.6W AT 12/2100Z AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 81.3W FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 33.2N 77.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 90SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 35.6N 73.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 38.7N 66.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 90SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.6N 80.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Eta Graphics
2020-11-12 18:52:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 12 Nov 2020 17:52:02 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 12 Nov 2020 15:24:49 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Eta (AT4/AL292020)
2020-11-12 18:51:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ETA MOVING OFFSHORE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS NEAR THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA BORDER... As of 1:00 PM EST Thu Nov 12 the center of Eta was located near 30.8, -81.4 with movement NNE at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Eta Public Advisory Number 49A
2020-11-12 18:51:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2020 271 WTNT34 KNHC 121751 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 49A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 100 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2020 ...ETA MOVING OFFSHORE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS NEAR THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA BORDER... SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.8N 81.4W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM NNE OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: All Tropical Storm Warnings have been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM EST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located near latitude 30.8 North, longitude 81.4 West. Eta is moving toward the north-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h). A faster north-northeastward to northeastward motion is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Eta is expected to accelerate over the western Atlantic and move parallel to, but offshore of the Carolinas tonight and early Friday before heading well east of the Mid-Atlantic coast by late Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through early Friday. Eta could re-intensify as a non-tropical cyclone late Friday or Friday night before becoming absorbed by a larger non-tropical cyclone on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) primarily over water to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. RAINFALL: Eta will produce an additional 1 to 3 inches of rain across portions of the Florida Peninsula through today, with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 20 to 25 inches in South Florida. Localized flash and urban flooding will be possible across the Florida Peninsula today, especially across previously inundated areas. Minor river flooding is expected across portions of West Florida lasting into the weekend. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to begin to affect portions of the coast of the southeastern United States later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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