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Tropical Storm Theta Graphics
2020-11-12 09:50:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 12 Nov 2020 08:50:45 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 12 Nov 2020 09:31:37 GMT
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Tropical Storm Theta Forecast Discussion Number 10
2020-11-12 09:49:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 AM GMT Thu Nov 12 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 120849 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Theta Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 900 AM GMT Thu Nov 12 2020 Theta currently is comprised of a large swirl of low- to mid-level clouds with no convection near the center. However, a band of convection is wrapped about three-quarters of the way around the center at a distance of about 200 n mi in the eastern semicircle and 100 n mi in the western semicircle. Overall, the cyclone has somewhat of a subtropical appearance at this time. Since there has been no data from the cyclone's core region since the last scatterometer pass, the initial intensity is held at 55 kt. The storm continued to jog a little to the left since the last advisory, but the last few satellite images suggest a more eastward motion has resumed. The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 060/10. For the next 24 h or so, Theta is expected to continue to move east-northeastward as it rounds the north side of a mid-level ridge centered over the Cabo Verde islands. An eastward to east-southeastward motion is expected from 24-72 h as the mid-level ridge to the south weakens and mid- to upper-level northerly flow moves over the cyclone. After that time, Theta or its remnants is expected to be steered northeastward in the low-level flow to the southeast of a deep-layer mid-latitude cyclone over the northeastern Atlantic. The new forecast track is adjusted north of the previous track based on the initial position and motion, and it lies near the various consensus models. Theta is forecast to change little in intensity during the next 36 h or so as it moves into the light shear area near an upper-level trough axis. After that time, the trough moves south of the cyclone, and strong northerly vertical shear should occur along with the entrainment of stable air. This combination should cause Theta to quickly weaken, and the intensity forecast calls for the system to decay to a remnant low pressure area by 96 h. The new intensity forecast has only minor adjustments from the old forecast, and it lies a little above the intensity consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 31.7N 30.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 32.0N 28.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 32.3N 26.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 32.3N 24.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 14/0600Z 32.0N 22.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 14/1800Z 31.7N 20.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 15/0600Z 31.6N 20.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 16/0600Z 33.0N 19.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 17/0600Z 37.0N 18.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Tropical Storm Theta (AT5/AL302020)
2020-11-12 09:49:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...THETA MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 9:00 AM GMT Thu Nov 12 the center of Theta was located near 31.7, -30.2 with movement ENE at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Theta Public Advisory Number 10
2020-11-12 09:49:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 AM GMT Thu Nov 12 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 120849 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Theta Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 900 AM GMT Thu Nov 12 2020 ...THETA MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.7N 30.2W ABOUT 470 MI...760 KM SSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Theta was located near latitude 31.7 North, longitude 30.2 West. Theta is moving toward the east-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue for the next day or so, followed by a turn towards the east with a slower forward speed by Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through Friday. Slow weakening is forecast to begin over the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Theta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2020-11-12 09:49:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU NOV 12 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 120849 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM THETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020 0900 UTC THU NOV 12 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM THETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 30.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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