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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-11-07 06:26:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 070526 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 100 AM EST Sat Nov 7 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Eta, located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. A broad non-tropical low pressure system could form several hundred miles southwest of the Azores early next week. The system could gradually obtain some subtropical characteristics thereafter as it moves slowly northeastward over the northeastern Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Depression Eta Graphics
2020-11-07 03:54:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 07 Nov 2020 02:54:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 07 Nov 2020 02:54:50 GMT
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Tropical Depression Eta Forecast Discussion Number 26
2020-11-07 03:53:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 PM CST Fri Nov 06 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 070253 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Eta Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 900 PM CST Fri Nov 06 2020 A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft that flew a tail-Doppler radar mission earlier this evening reported that Eta's circulation remained elongated, and that there had not been any significant increase in winds since this afternoon. There has been some increase in deep convection near and to the east of the estimated center, but there has been little overall change in organization. Therefore, the initial intensity remains 30 kt for this advisory. Eta is expected to strengthen over the next 24 to 48 hours while it moves over warm waters and within an area of strong upper-level divergence to the southeast of a mid- to upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico. Eta's structure is likely to take on characteristics of a subtropical cyclone as it merges with the cutoff low late Sunday and Monday. As this occurs, Eta's wind field is expected to increase in size. By 72 hours and beyond, dry air entrainment is likely to cause some weakening. The new NHC intensity forecast is close to the previous one. Eta is moving toward northeastward at a faster forward speed of around 10 kt. An additional increase in forward speed should occur overnight as Eta moves northeastward around the southeastern portion of a developing mid- to upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico. This feature should continue to steer Eta northeastward during the next 24 hours, but after that time the trough is forecast to cut-off, with Eta turning northward, and then northwestward around and into the mid- to upper-level closed low. The merged system is likely to move northwestward or northward later in the period. The latest runs of the dynamical models have trended toward a more northward track on Sunday and Monday with some of them showing a track near or over the southern portion of the Florida peninsula in 48 to 60 hours. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted slightly northward during that time and lies between the TVCA multi-model consensus and the HFIP corrected consensus aid. Since Eta's wind field is forecast to expand when it moves north of Cuba, tropical-storm-force winds are expected to cover a large area to the north and northeast of the center regardless of the exact track of the center. The new forecast track requires a Tropical Storm Watch for the northwestern Bahamas, the southern Florida peninsula, and the Florida Keys. Additional watches for the Florida peninsula may be required overnight or on Saturday morning. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall is diminishing across portions of Central America, although the threat of life-threatening flooding may continue, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Heavy rainfall from Eta will move into the Cayman islands and portions of Cuba, resulting in significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding in Cuba. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, southeast Mexico, the Bahamas and Southern Florida. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected this weekend in portions of the Cayman Islands and Cuba, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 3. There is an increasing risk of impacts from wind and flash and urban flooding due to heavy rainfall in portions of southern Florida, the Florida Keys, and portions of the Bahamas this weekend and early next week. Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for portions of these areas and additional watches may be required overnight or on Saturday morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 18.0N 85.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 19.0N 83.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 20.3N 81.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 21.9N 79.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 48H 09/0000Z 24.0N 79.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 09/1200Z 25.0N 81.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 10/0000Z 25.2N 82.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 11/0000Z 26.0N 84.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 12/0000Z 27.0N 84.7W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Eta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 26
2020-11-07 03:53:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT NOV 07 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 070253 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 0300 UTC SAT NOV 07 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) 2( 9) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 1(14) 2(16) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 1(14) 2(16) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) 2(20) 1(21) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 19(30) 2(32) 1(33) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 24(41) 2(43) 1(44) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) X(10) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 24(32) 1(33) 1(34) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 24(35) 1(36) 1(37) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) HOMESTEAD ARB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 21(43) 4(47) 1(48) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) X(18) 1(19) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 21(34) 5(39) 2(41) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 1(12) 2(14) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 32(38) 4(42) 2(44) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 2(23) 2(25) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 23(25) 5(30) 3(33) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 4(18) 5(23) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) 5(16) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 6(13) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) 7(18) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 6(11) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 6(13) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 9(22) 1(23) X(23) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 6(23) X(23) X(23) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ANDROS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 20(24) 5(29) X(29) X(29) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) HAVANA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 8(15) 4(19) 2(21) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ISLE OF PINES 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 4(10) 1(11) X(11) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) 26(26) 8(34) 1(35) X(35) 1(36) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CIENFUEGOS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) 13(13) 3(16) 1(17) 1(18) X(18) GRAND CAYMAN 34 2 54(56) 1(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MONTEGO BAY 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Tropical Depression Eta (AT4/AL292020)
2020-11-07 03:52:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ETA EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS, SOUTHERN FLORIDA, AND THE FLORIDA KEYS... As of 9:00 PM CST Fri Nov 6 the center of Eta was located near 18.0, -85.2 with movement NE at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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