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Tropical Storm Epsilon Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2020-10-20 22:46:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 20 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 202046 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM EPSILON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020 2100 UTC TUE OCT 20 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) BERMUDA 34 X 2( 2) 10(12) 13(25) 14(39) 7(46) X(46) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) X(10) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) $$ FORECASTER REINHART/BROWN
Summary for Tropical Storm Epsilon (AT2/AL272020)
2020-10-20 22:46:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...EPSILON CONTINUES STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 PM AST Tue Oct 20 the center of Epsilon was located near 27.9, -55.8 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Epsilon Public Advisory Number 7
2020-10-20 22:46:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Oct 20 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 202046 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Epsilon Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 500 PM AST Tue Oct 20 2020 ...EPSILON CONTINUES STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.9N 55.8W ABOUT 615 MI...995 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Epsilon was located near latitude 27.9 North, longitude 55.8 West. Epsilon is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue tonight, followed by a slightly slower west-northwestward or northwestward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, Epsilon is forecast to move closer to Bermuda on Thursday and make its closest approach to the island on Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and Epsilon is forecast to become a hurricane tonight or early Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km), primarily to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Thursday. SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon are expected to affect Bermuda for the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Brown
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Tropical Storm Epsilon Forecast Advisory Number 7
2020-10-20 22:45:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 20 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 202045 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020 2100 UTC TUE OCT 20 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 55.8W AT 20/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 70NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT.......280NE 90SE 30SW 300NW. 12 FT SEAS..540NE 150SE 360SW 510NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 55.8W AT 20/2100Z AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 55.5W FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 28.8N 57.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 30SE 10SW 60NW. 34 KT...300NE 100SE 60SW 270NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 29.3N 59.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 80NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...280NE 110SE 80SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 30.3N 60.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...230NE 130SE 90SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 31.6N 61.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 20SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 150SE 90SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 33.0N 61.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 70NW. 34 KT...200NE 150SE 100SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 34.0N 61.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...220NE 150SE 120SW 200NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 36.7N 60.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 42.0N 51.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.9N 55.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 21/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/BROWN
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Tropical Storm Epsilon Graphics
2020-10-20 19:53:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 20 Oct 2020 17:53:02 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 20 Oct 2020 15:24:57 GMT
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