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Tropical Depression Twenty-Seven Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-10-19 14:05:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM AST Mon Oct 19 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 191205 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Twenty-Seven Special Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 800 AM AST Mon Oct 19 2020 Deep convection associated with the area of low pressure over the central Atlantic has become significantly better organized overnight. The low-level center is located near the western edge of the convection, but the system has enough organization to be declared a tropical cyclone. Therefore, advisories are being initiated at this time. The system appears to be near tropical-storm strength, but since earlier classifications were just below that intensity the system is being started as a 30-kt tropical depression. The system appears more tropical than subtropical since it is no longer co-located with an upper-level low and it appears to have a fairly small radius of maximum winds. Therefore, it has been designated a tropical cyclone. Scatterometer data later this morning should provide a better assessment of the system's intensity. The depression is located over SSTs over 27-28 degrees Celsius and within an area of moderate westerly shear. These conditions should allow for gradual strengthening over the next day or so. After that time, the shear is expected to decrease and continued strengthen is anticipated. The NHC intensity forecasts calls for the system to become a hurricane within 72 hours, and is in best agreement with the HCCA and ICON intensity consensus models. The depression is located in an area of weak steering currents near the base of a mid- to upper-level trough that extends southwestward from the northeastern Atlantic. As a result, little net motion is expected through tonight. A mid- to upper-level ridge is forecast to build over the western and central Atlantic to the north of the system by midweek. As the ridge slides eastward later this week, the cyclone should move west-northwestward to northwestward at a faster rate of speed. This motion will bring the system close to Bermuda by late week and the interests on that island should closely monitor the progress of the cyclone. The dynamical models are in relatively good agreement on the overall scenario and the NHC track forecast is near the center of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1200Z 25.8N 55.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 25.8N 55.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 26.0N 55.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 20/1800Z 26.9N 55.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 21/0600Z 28.0N 57.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 21/1800Z 28.6N 59.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 22/0600Z 29.5N 60.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 23/0600Z 31.7N 62.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 24/0600Z 33.5N 63.8W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Twenty-Seven Graphics
2020-10-19 13:56:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 19 Oct 2020 11:56:03 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 19 Oct 2020 11:56:03 GMT
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Tropical Depression Twenty-Seven Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2020-10-19 13:54:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1200 UTC MON OCT 19 2020 520 FONT12 KNHC 191154 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020 1200 UTC MON OCT 19 2020 AT 1200Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 21(27) 16(43) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 9(18) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Tropical Depression Twenty-Seven (AT2/AL272020)
2020-10-19 13:53:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 8:00 AM AST Mon Oct 19 the center of Twenty-Seven was located near 25.8, -55.5 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Twenty-Seven Public Advisory Number 1
2020-10-19 13:53:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM AST Mon Oct 19 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 191153 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twenty-Seven Special Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 800 AM AST Mon Oct 19 2020 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.8N 55.5W ABOUT 720 MI...1155 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warning in effect. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty-Seven was located near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 55.5 West. The depression is stationary and little overall motion is expected through tonight. A slow west-northwestward to northwestward motion should begin on Tuesday, and this motion should continue through midweek. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 72 hours, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today or tonight and be at or near hurricane strength by early Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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