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Tropical Depression Twenty-six Forecast Advisory Number 3
2020-10-05 10:49:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 604 WTNT21 KNHC 050849 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020 0900 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND ARTEMISA * ISLE OF YOUTH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAYMAN ISLANDS INCLUDING LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBA PROVINCE OF LA HABANA A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 78.2W AT 05/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 78.2W AT 05/0900Z AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 77.8W FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 17.4N 79.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 18.6N 80.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 20.5N 83.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 22.5N 85.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 24.4N 88.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 25.9N 90.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 28.0N 91.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 32.4N 88.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 78.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 05/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Marie Graphics
2020-10-05 10:42:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 05 Oct 2020 08:42:27 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 05 Oct 2020 08:42:27 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Marie (EP3/EP182020)
2020-10-05 10:40:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MARIE EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY WEDNESDAY... As of 2:00 AM PDT Mon Oct 5 the center of Marie was located near 20.8, -131.1 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Marie Forecast Discussion Number 25
2020-10-05 10:32:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Mon Oct 05 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 050832 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 200 AM PDT Mon Oct 05 2020 Satellite images show the exposed low-level circulation well to the southwest of any remaining deep convection. ASCAT data, however, came in at 50-55 kt just before 06Z, which is higher than the satellite presentation alone would suggest. The initial wind speed is set to 55 kt on the basis of that data. Marie should weaken during the next few days due to cold waters and strong shear. Models are in very good agreement on a steady weakening, and little change was made to the previous forecast. Remnant low status is expected by 48 hours, and could even happen sooner based on current trends. The storm is moving west-northwestward at about 8 kt this morning. A ridge to the north should steer Marie to the northwest or west-northwest for the next couple of days, then the tropical cyclone is likely to turn westward as it becomes a more shallow feature. Model guidance has generally been adjusting to this scenario, with a mid-latitude trough no longer expected to exert much influence. The new forecast is shifted southward from 48 hours and beyond, near but a little slower than the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 20.8N 131.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 21.2N 132.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 21.8N 133.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 22.4N 135.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 07/0600Z 22.9N 136.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 07/1800Z 23.2N 137.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/0600Z 23.2N 138.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 09/0600Z 23.0N 140.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Marie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 25
2020-10-05 10:30:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 050830 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 0900 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 131.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 130W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 135W 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 25N 135W 34 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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