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Tropical Storm Marie Forecast Advisory Number 25
2020-10-05 10:30:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 050830 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 0900 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 131.1W AT 05/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT.......110NE 100SE 80SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 180SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 131.1W AT 05/0900Z AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 130.7W FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.2N 132.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 21.8N 133.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.4N 135.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 22.9N 136.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 23.2N 137.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 23.2N 138.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 23.0N 140.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.8N 131.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression Twenty-Six Graphics
2020-10-05 07:51:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 05 Oct 2020 05:51:57 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 05 Oct 2020 03:33:15 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Depression Twenty-Six (AT1/AL262020)
2020-10-05 07:50:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH TUESDAY... As of 2:00 AM EDT Mon Oct 5 the center of Twenty-Six was located near 16.9, -77.8 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Twenty-Six Public Advisory Number 2A
2020-10-05 07:50:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM EDT Mon Oct 05 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 050550 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twenty-Six Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 200 AM EDT Mon Oct 05 2020 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.9N 77.8W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and Artemisa * Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cayman Islands including Little Cayman and Cayman Brac A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cuba province of La Habana A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty-Six was located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 77.8 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion should continue for the next day or so. A faster northwestward motion is expected on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to pass just south of Jamaica through this morning, move near or over the Cayman Islands later tonight, and approach the Isle of Youth and western Cuba Tuesday afternoon or evening. The tropical cyclone is forecast to move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm when it nears the Cayman Islands later today, and be a hurricane when it moves near or over western Cuba on Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Twenty-Six can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of the Isle of Youth and along the south coast of western Cuba near and to right of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. RAINFALL: Through midweek, this system is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches across Jamaica and western Cuba. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Over the Cayman Islands, 2 to 4 inches of rainfall will be possible with this system. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands beginning late today. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area by Tuesday afternoon, with tropical storm conditions possible by early Tuesday. Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in Cuba by early Tuesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Gamma Graphics
2020-10-05 07:48:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 05 Oct 2020 05:48:01 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 05 Oct 2020 03:25:26 GMT
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