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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-10-03 20:41:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
492 ABNT20 KNHC 031737 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sat Oct 3 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Gamma, located inland over the Yucatan Peninsula. Shower and thunderstorm activity has become more consolidated since yesterday near a tropical wave located over the central Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form next week while the system moves westward or west-northwestward at about 15 mph across the central and western Caribbean Sea and then into the southern Gulf of Mexico. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds will be possible across portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, Cuba, and the Cayman Islands during the next few days, and interests on those islands should monitor the progress of this disturbance. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system is expected to move toward the west-northwest or northwest at 10 to 15 mph, and some development is possible during the next couple of days before it encounters strong upper-level winds. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central Atlantic more than 1000 miles east-southeast of Bermuda is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. This system is expected to move toward the west-southwest at around 10 mph, and some slow development is possible during the next couple of days before it too encounters strong upper-level winds. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Gamma Public Advisory Number 5A
2020-10-03 20:29:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sat Oct 03 2020 971 WTNT35 KNHC 031735 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gamma Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020 100 PM CDT Sat Oct 03 2020 ...GAMMA MOVING INLAND OVER THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.4N 87.6W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM NNW OF TULUM MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for * North of Punta Allen to Cancun Mexico, including Cozumel A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Herrero to Punta Allen Mexico * North and west of Cancun to Dzilam Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South of Punta Herrero to Puerto Costa Maya Mexico * West of Dzilam to Progreso Mexico A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gamma was located near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 87.6 West. Gamma is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion should continue at a slower forward speed today. A turn toward the north-northwest is expected on Sunday, followed by a turn to the west or west-southwest Sunday night or Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Gamma should move farther inland over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula later today, and be near the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is likely through tonight while the center moves over land. Some re-strengthening is expected to begin when the center moves into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Gamma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. RAINFALL: Gamma is expected to produce rainfall of 4 to 8 inches across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and far western Cuba, with maximum rainfall amounts as high as 10 to 15 inches possible across northeastern Quintana Roo and northern Yucatan. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods. A separate area of significant rain is expected to develop well away from the center in the Mexican states of Campeche, Tabasco, northern Chiapas, and southeast Veracruz, with rainfall of 6 to 8 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. The storm will also result in an area of heavy rains to the south that will affect the Gulf of Fonseca region between eastern El Salvador, southern Honduras, and northwest Nicaragua with accumulation of 4-6 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. Additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 5 inches is expected over the Cayman Islands. WIND: Hurricane conditions could still occur within the Hurricane Warning area during the next couple of hours. Tropical storm conditions should continue within the Tropical Storm Warning area on the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula today, and these conditions should spread across the remainder of the warning area through Sunday. Tropical Storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area later today and on Sunday. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near and north of where the center crossed the coast. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Water levels should begin to subside later today. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Gamma Graphics
2020-10-03 19:55:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 03 Oct 2020 17:55:11 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 03 Oct 2020 15:25:16 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Gamma (AT5/AL252020)
2020-10-03 18:59:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GAMMA MAKES LANDFALL NEAR TULUM, MEXICO... As of 12:00 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 the center of Gamma was located near 20.2, -87.5 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 980 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Gamma Update Statement
2020-10-03 18:59:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sat Oct 03 2020 000 WTNT65 KNHC 031658 TCUAT5 Tropical Storm Gamma Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020 1200 PM CDT Sat Oct 03 2020 ...GAMMA MAKES LANDFALL NEAR TULUM, MEXICO... Surface observations and satellite images indicate that the center of Tropical Storm Gamma made landfall in the northeast Yucatan Peninsula near Tulum, Mexico, around 1145 AM CDT. The storm was very close to hurricane strength at landfall, with maximum sustained winds near 70 MPH (110 MPH) with higher gusts. A weather station at Xel-Ha Park, along the Yucatan coast just north of Tulum, reported a sustained wind of 55 mph (89 km/h) and a gust to 68 mph (109 km/h) within the past hour. SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION --------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.2N 87.5W ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM N OF TULUM MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES $$ Forecaster Pasch
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