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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-10-03 13:35:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
684 ABPZ20 KNHC 031135 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Sat Oct 3 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Marie, located about 1100 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. An area of low pressure is expected to form within the next couple of days several hundred miles southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Some development of this system is possible through the middle of next week while it moves slowly northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Another area of low pressure could form south or southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec early next week. Gradual development of this system is possible thereafter while it drifts near or south of the southern coasts of Mexico and Guatemala. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Berg
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Tropical Storm Gamma Graphics
2020-10-03 11:42:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 03 Oct 2020 09:42:26 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 03 Oct 2020 09:42:26 GMT
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Tropical Storm Gamma Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-10-03 11:05:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Oct 03 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 030905 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Gamma Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020 400 AM CDT Sat Oct 03 2020 Satellite imagery and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Gamma is strengthening. A central dense overcast with cloud tops to -85C has formed, along with an outer convective band in the eastern semicircle. The aircraft has reported maximum 850 mb flight-level winds of 58 kt and reliable- looking surface wind estimates from the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer of 40-45 kt. Based on this, the initial intensity is increased to 45 kt. The initial motion is again a little to the left of the previous advisory, 305/8 kt. During the next 24-36 h, Gamma is expected to turn northward as it tries to recurve into a break in the subtropical ridge caused by a mid-latitude trough over the eastern United States. The track guidance, however, is in good agreement that the trough will bypass the tropical cyclone, with a ridge building to the north after 36 h. This should cause Gamma to turn westward or southwestward between the ridge and the Central American cyclonic gyre to the south. There is uncertainty as to whether Gamma will move over the Gulf of Mexico before this turn occurs, as the ECMWF keeps the center inland or very near the coast. The new forecast track is north of the ECMWF, but a little to the south of the previous track. The foreast track calls for landfall on the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula in about 12 h, followed by the center reaching the Gulf of Mexico in about 36 h and a track near the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula thereafter. Conditions appear favorable for strengthening until landfall, and the forecast 12-h intensity of 50 kt could be conservative given current trends. The remainder of the intensity forecast is quite uncertain due to the possibility of land interaction, dry air entrainment, shear, and possible interaction with another system to the east. The intensity guidance again does not show much strengthening if Gamma emerges into the Gulf of Mexico, and that part of the new intensity forecast has only minor adjustments from the previous one. It should be noted that several models show a low pressure area over the northern Gulf of Mexico after 120 h. Whether this will be Gamma or a new system is unclear at this time. The biggest threat from this large and slow-moving storm is the the potential for heavy rainfall and flooding, particularly near and over mountainous terrain. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Gamma is expected to produce heavy rainfall that could result in life-threatening flash flooding over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, far western Cuba and well away from the center in the Mexican states of Campeche, Tabasco, and northern Chiapas. 2. Gamma is forecast to bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Yucatan Peninsula today and Sunday, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 19.4N 86.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 20.2N 87.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 21.1N 87.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 04/1800Z 21.7N 88.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 05/0600Z 21.8N 88.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 05/1800Z 21.6N 89.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 06/0600Z 21.2N 90.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 07/0600Z 20.5N 92.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 08/0600Z 19.5N 93.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Gamma Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2020-10-03 11:01:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 03 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 030901 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM GAMMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL252020 0900 UTC SAT OCT 03 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GAMMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) MERIDA MX 34 2 6( 8) X( 8) 3(11) 5(16) 2(18) 1(19) MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 76 4(80) 1(81) X(81) 1(82) X(82) X(82) COZUMEL MX 50 7 2( 9) X( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) COZUMEL MX 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BELIZE CITY 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Summary for Tropical Storm Gamma (AT5/AL252020)
2020-10-03 11:00:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GAMMA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... ...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREAT... As of 4:00 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 the center of Gamma was located near 19.4, -86.9 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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