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Tropical Storm Sally Graphics
2020-09-13 04:36:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 13 Sep 2020 02:36:31 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 13 Sep 2020 03:38:58 GMT
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Tropical Storm Sally Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2020-09-13 04:36:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Sun, 13 Sep 2020 02:36:18 GMT
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Tropical Depression Rene Forecast Discussion Number 24
2020-09-13 04:35:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 130234 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Rene Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 Satellite images indicate that a band of convection has recently increased on the western side of the circulation, otherwise the center remains mostly exposed. The initial wind speed is reduced to 25 kt based on scatterometer data. The small cyclone is likely to gradually spin down due to persistent moderate shear and a fairly dry environment. The hostile conditions are not likely to change too much, so Rene is forecast to lose all convection in a day or two and become a remnant low. The new NHC intensity forecast is lower than the previous one due to the weaker initial intensity and follows the latest global model consensus. The depression is moving northwestward at about 11 kt. A blocking ridge of high pressure is forecast to build to the northwest or Rene, causing the cyclone to slow down and then turn westward and west-southwestward early next week. The guidance is similar to the previous package, and no significant track changes were made to the official NHC forecast. The forecast still might hold onto the circulation too long, and the remnant low could dissipate into a trough of low pressure sooner than indicated below. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 25.3N 46.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 26.4N 47.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 27.3N 48.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 14/1200Z 27.4N 48.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 15/0000Z 27.2N 49.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 15/1200Z 26.5N 50.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression Rene Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24
2020-09-13 04:34:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 130234 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION RENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020 0300 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION RENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Summary for Tropical Storm Sally (AT4/AL192020)
2020-09-13 04:34:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SALLY EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK... As of 11:00 PM EDT Sat Sep 12 the center of Sally was located near 26.3, -82.9 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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