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Tropical Depression Rene Forecast Advisory Number 23
2020-09-12 22:32:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 122032 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION RENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020 2100 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 45.6W AT 12/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 45.6W AT 12/2100Z AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 45.2W FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 25.6N 46.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 26.9N 47.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 27.4N 48.3W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 27.2N 48.8W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 26.7N 49.6W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 25.8N 51.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 24.7N 54.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.3N 45.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Sally Graphics
2020-09-12 20:07:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 12 Sep 2020 18:07:30 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 12 Sep 2020 15:40:04 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Sally (AT4/AL192020)
2020-09-12 20:01:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM... As of 2:00 PM EDT Sat Sep 12 the center of Sally was located near 25.6, -81.6 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Sally Public Advisory Number 4A
2020-09-12 20:01:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Sat Sep 12 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 121801 CCA TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sally Intermediate Advisory Number 4A...corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 200 PM EDT Sat Sep 12 2020 Corrected header ...DEPRESSION BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.6N 81.6W ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM SSE OF NAPLES FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Ochlockonee River to Okaloosa/Walton County Line A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area within the next 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the northern Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of this system. Tropical storm or hurricane watches, and storm surge watches, could be issued for a portion of that area later today. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sally was located near latitude 25.6 North, longitude 81.6 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a turn toward the west-northwest is expected later today or tonight. A west-northwestward or northwestward motion is then expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center is forecast to move over the southeastern and eastern Gulf of Mexico later today and Sunday, and then move over the north-central Gulf of Mexico Sunday night and Monday. Maximum sustained winds have increased near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected over the next couple of days, and Sally is forecast to become a hurricane by late Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) south and southeast of the center, just to the south of the Florida Keys. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Wind gusts to tropical-storm force are possible across the southern portion of the Florida peninsula today, especially over the Florida Keys. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Florida Panhandle by Sunday night. RAINFALL: Sally is expected to produce total rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated 8 inch amounts over the Florida Keys through tonight with 2 to 4 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches across southern Florida and the western Florida coast to the Tampa Bay metro area. This rainfall will produce flash and urban flooding across southern Florida and prolong high flows and ongoing minor flooding on rivers across Central Florida. Sally is expected to produce through Tuesday rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with localized amounts of 8 inches along the Gulf Coast from the Florida Peninsula to southeast Louisiana and 2 to 4 inches farther inland over far southern Alabama, Mississippi and southeast Louisiana. This is expected to be a slow-moving system that will likely continue to produce heavy rainfall and considerable flooding near the central Gulf Coast through the middle of next week. Flash, urban and rapid onset flooding along small streams and minor to isolated moderate flooding on rivers is likely. SURF: Swells are expected to spread northward along the west-central coast of Florida and the Florida Panhandle during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible today and tonight over southern Florida. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-09-12 19:51:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 121751 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Sat Sep 12 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: An elongated area of low pressure located about 700 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Additional development of this system is becoming less likely over the next day or so before it interacts with, and is possibly absorbed by, a larger weather disturbance to its east-southeast. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. Another area of low pressure is located several hundred miles southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Associated shower and thunderstorm activity has become more concentrated near the center of the low today. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next day or so while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph away from the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high..80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. $$ Forecaster Latto
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