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Tropical Depression Omar Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2020-09-02 22:38:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 02 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 022037 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION OMAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152020 2100 UTC WED SEP 02 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION OMAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Summary for Tropical Depression Omar (AT5/AL152020)
2020-09-02 22:38:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...OMAR WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW THURSDAY... As of 5:00 PM AST Wed Sep 2 the center of Omar was located near 36.1, -65.7 with movement E at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Omar Public Advisory Number 9
2020-09-02 22:38:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Sep 02 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 022037 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Omar Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 500 PM AST Wed Sep 02 2020 ...OMAR WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.1N 65.7W ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM N OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Omar was located near latitude 36.1 North, longitude 65.7 West. The depression is moving toward the east near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Friday. A turn toward the east-northeast with some reduction in forward speed is forecast on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Further weakening is forecast and Omar is likely to become a remnant low Thursday with dissipation by Saturday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Depression Omar Forecast Advisory Number 9
2020-09-02 22:37:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 02 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 022037 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION OMAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152020 2100 UTC WED SEP 02 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.1N 65.7W AT 02/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 80SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.1N 65.7W AT 02/2100Z AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.1N 66.4W FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 36.1N 63.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 36.0N 61.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 35.7N 59.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 35.7N 57.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 35.9N 56.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.1N 65.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Tropical Storm Nana Forecast Discussion Number 7
2020-09-02 22:36:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed Sep 02 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 022036 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Nana Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162020 400 PM CDT Wed Sep 02 2020 Nana continues to feel the effects of about 15 kt of northerly vertical shear, as the low-level center is located near the northern edge of the main convective mass. Data from the last Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Mission showed that the flight-level winds at 850 mb were a little lower than earlier. However, incomplete SFMR data suggested surface winds near 50 kt, and the aircraft reported that the central pressure is near 999 mb. The initial intensity is held at 50 kt, although this could be a little generous. The initial motion is westward or 270/13 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone is forecast to keep steering Nana toward the west, or maybe just south of west, for the remainder of the cyclone's life. The new forecast track, which again is changed only slightly from the previous forecast, calls for the cyclone to pass north of the Bay Islands this evening, then make landfall over central or southern Belize in about 12-18 h. Nana is running out of time to strengthen before landfall, and between that and the ongoing shear none of the intensity guidance forecasts it to become a hurricane before landfall. However, any strong convective burst could spin up the cyclone, and since the bursts have been frequent today the intensity forecast calls for Nana to strengthen to near hurricane strength at landfall. After landfall, steady weakening is expected. Several of the global models now show the remnants of Nana emerging over the Gulf of Tehuantepec in 48-60 h. However, these models continue to forecast dissipation even over water, so the forecast dissipation time is unchanged since the previous advisory. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Nana could bring hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge tonight to portions of the coast of Belize, and a hurricane warning is in effect. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning areas in Belize, the Bay Islands, Guatemala, and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico by tonight. 3. Heavy rainfall with isolated maximum amounts as high as 8 to 12 inches could result in flash flooding in Belize, Guatemala, and portions of southeastern Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 17.0N 85.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 16.8N 87.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 16.6N 90.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 04/0600Z 16.4N 92.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 04/1800Z 16.2N 94.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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