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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-09-03 13:17:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 031117 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Thu Sep 3 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Nana, inland over southern Belize, and on Tropical Depression Omar, located a few hundred miles north-northeast of Bermuda. A broad area of low pressure located over the eastern tropical Atlantic several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a small area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development is possible early next week as the larger tropical wave located off of the coast of Africa passes to the north of the system on Sunday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. A tropical wave located off the coast of west Africa is merging with another disturbance located a couple of hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands, resulting in an extensive area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development of this system is likely to be slow during the next couple of days while it moves west- northwestward at about 15 mph, and a tropical depression is more likely to form early next week over the central tropical Atlantic where environmental conditions are forecast to be more favorable for development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. Another tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa over the weekend. An area of low pressure is expected to form from the wave, and some development of this low will be possible early next week while it moves generally westward over the far eastern tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-09-03 13:16:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 031116 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Thu Sep 3 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The remnants of Atlantic basin Tropical Storm Nana are expected to emerge over the eastern Pacific waters near the Gulf of Tehuantepec on Friday. Unfavorable upper-level winds are expected to inhibit development through early next week while the system moves generally west-northwestward, near or along the southern coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Nana Graphics
2020-09-03 10:49:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 03 Sep 2020 08:49:03 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 03 Sep 2020 09:31:34 GMT
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Tropical Depression Omar Graphics
2020-09-03 10:45:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 03 Sep 2020 08:45:55 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 03 Sep 2020 09:24:36 GMT
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Tropical Depression Omar Forecast Discussion Number 11
2020-09-03 10:45:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Sep 03 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 030845 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Omar Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 500 AM AST Thu Sep 03 2020 Omar continues to produce bursts of deep convection with the center occasionally obscured beneath the northern edge of the convective canopy. Based on last evening's ASCAT pass and a recent classification of T2.0 from TAFB, the initial intensity remains 30 kt. Amazingly, 50 kt of north-northwesterly shear has not been enough to prevent deep convection from developing, likely because Omar remains in an unstable thermodynamic environment and over sea surface temperatures of 27-28 degrees Celsius. These conditions are not expected to become less conducive for convective development, and the only thing that will likely make it harder for Omar to maintain convection will be the shear vector becoming increasingly out of phase with the storm motion vector during the next couple of days. With the current round of convection ongoing, it may take a little while longer for Omar to degenerate to a remnant low, and that occurrence has been pushed to 24 hours in the NHC forecast. Dissipation has been moved to 60 hours since all global models indicate that the remnant low's circulation should open up into a trough by then. Omar is moving eastward (090/12 kt) along the northern periphery of the subtropical ridge. A general eastward motion should continue for the next 24 hours, with Omar then turning toward the northeast by 48 hours ahead of an approaching cold front. The NHC track forecast is down the middle of the tightly packed guidance suite, and this new prediction is very close to the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 36.3N 62.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 36.0N 60.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 35.8N 58.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 04/1800Z 36.1N 57.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/0600Z 37.2N 55.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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