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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2020-08-21 19:38:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

000 ABNT20 KNHC 211738 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Laura, which is approaching the northern Leeward Islands, and on Tropical Depression Fourteen, located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. An area of disorganized cloudiness and showers located between the west coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands is associated with a broad area of low pressure and tropical wave. This disturbance is expected to move westward at 15 to 20 mph across the Cabo Verde Islands during the next 24 hours. Conditions are forecast to be only marginally conducive for some development over the next couple of days. After that time, environmental conditions are expected to become less favorable for development. Regardless of development this system will likely bring gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall across portions of the Cabo Verde Islands this weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Brown

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Summary for Tropical Depression Fourteen (AT4/AL142020)

2020-08-21 19:37:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING AWAY FROM THE HONDURAS COAST... As of 2:00 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 the center of Fourteen was located near 17.4, -84.1 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

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Tropical Depression Fourteen Public Advisory Number 5A

2020-08-21 19:37:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 200 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 211737 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fourteen Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 200 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING AWAY FROM THE HONDURAS COAST... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.4N 84.1W ABOUT 180 MI...295 KM ENE OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS ABOUT 280 MI...455 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta Herrero to Cancun Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bay Islands of Honduras * Punta Herrero to Cancun Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North and west of Cancun to Dzilam Mexico A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen was located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 84.1 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A slower northwestward motion is expected over the next couple of days, followed by an increase in speed by Sunday and Monday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will continue to move away from the coast of Honduras today and will approach the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday. The center will then cross the northeastern part of the Yucatan Peninsula Saturday night and move over the central Gulf of Mexico toward the northwestern Gulf on Sunday and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today. The system is forecast to be near or at hurricane strength when it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Saturday. Some weakening is expected as it moves over the Yucatan Peninsula Saturday night. Afterward, restrengthening is forecast on Sunday as it moves offshore and enters the southern Gulf of Mexico. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the eastern Yucatan coast within the warning area by Saturday afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are also possible within the watch area by late Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area on the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula Saturday night and Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are still possible over the Bay Islands of Honduras today. RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Sunday: Eastern portions of the Mexican states of Quintana Roo and Yucatan: 3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. This rainfall may result in areas of flash flooding. Eastern Honduras: 2 to 4 inches. Northeast Nicaragua and the Cayman Islands: 1 to 2 inches NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

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Tropical Storm Laura Graphics

2020-08-21 19:37:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 21 Aug 2020 17:37:15 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 21 Aug 2020 15:24:47 GMT

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Tropical Depression Fourteen Graphics

2020-08-21 19:37:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 21 Aug 2020 17:37:07 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 21 Aug 2020 15:31:52 GMT

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